The discourse that surrounds top quarterback prospects in the scouting community often includes preemptive declarations, victory laps, and assumptions that the most recent game is a sign of the future, whether it’s positive or negative. After Week 2, this couldn’t be more true. With plenty of top quarterbacks under the microscope, plenty of discussions surrounding Week 2 will certainly look silly in a few months. Just three of the potential first-round quarterbacks, Darian Mensah, C.J. Carr, and Josh Hoover, graded out in the top-10 in our brand-new TDR Grade, a data-driven grading system that stacks weekly performances and indicates how a prospect is performing.
Arch Manning, Dante Moore, Julian Sayin, and LaNorris Sellers all had rough outings. Drew Mestemaker garnered some praise from a ton of evaluators, but upon rewatch, there were still some problems that suggest he’ll be back at Oklahoma State (or a bigger school) in 2027. Beyond the quarterbacks, a ton of guys have started to establish themselves as legitimate prospects worthy of first-round discussions. Here are my notes after diving into the film.
Ohio State-Texas Delivers
Before I dive into the Arch Manning and Julian Sayin of this game, I want to note I believe these are the two best football teams in the nation. Ohio State’s secondary played exactly how I expected, their offense was humming until Arthur Smith puckered up in the second half, and they still managed to blow a giant lead to an excellent Texas team. Texas probably has the advantage, and I think the better team won, especially after diving into the film.
Texas’ Running Back Duo is Legitimate
We discussed Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers extensively in our summer scouting series on the TDR Draft Show, and Saturday's results were excellent, even if their production won’t show it. Brown and Smothers provide Texas with the best running back duo in the nation, with Brown’s feet and contact balance matching Smothers’ elusiveness and burst. They both profile as impact backs at the NFL level, and although Smothers was more productive early in the year, I still believe Brown has the higher ceiling in the NFL. Their block manipulation and explosiveness are something that Texas has sorely missed in its backfield over the last couple of years, and that makes this team a serious threat to win the national title.
Colin Simmons, EDGE, Texas is Clutch
While Simmons hasn’t made the big, flashy play much yet this season, and he was fairly quiet throughout much of this game, he reached down and drew out his best play when it mattered most. With the game on the line and Sayin dropping back to throw, Simmons exploded off the edge and attempted the shot-block on a deep throw that was just outside of Jeremiah Smith’s reach. Simmons’s ability to press the outside shoulder before exploding inside makes him one of the premier prospects in the 2027 NFL Draft. Here, he hurried Sayin in a way that probably sealed the win for Texas. Getting big plays in clutch time from your best players is what makes a team great, and Texas got that on both sides of the football.
Assessing Arch Manning’s Performance
It was a tale of four quarters for Manning in this one, and the raw output just doesn’t look good. It probably shouldn’t, either. The Ohio State secondary made Manning look like Chicago Bears Justin Fields for most of the game, with something clicking toward the end of the third quarter for Manning.
The Ohio State secondary made life challenging for Arch Manning. They disguised coverages, rotated, and successfully withheld the answers from him until the snap. They locked the wideouts up with sound zone drops and physical man coverage. In the second half, he started to utilize his legs to create answers, which opened up more downfield. He struggled to throw with anticipation, moving off intermediate-ins too early, leaving plenty of yards on the field. His second-half response was excellent, but he needs to process faster. When he threw with confidence and anticipation, he was everything the world has billed him to be. But that version was only on the field for about a quarter-and-a-half, and that’s not good enough in big games. This four-play sequence highlights how frustrating Manning’s performance was.
When Manning operates with confidence, he uses his eyes to manipulate defenders. He’s especially good at getting linebackers to bite on underneath routes and throwing behind them. There’s a perfect, clear opportunity for that here against this Cover 6 look. If he reads this properly, he isolates Earl Little Jr. (Ohio State #1), drops them to the shallow drag route, and throws to Cam Coleman over the middle of the field. If he has just a little anticipation and patience, Texas probably drives down the field and scores points at the end of the first half. Instead, he throws a nothing-burger underneath. He follows it up with an excellent throw here.
