ADP Reality Check: Re-Grading the Top 36 Devy Picks (Rounds 1–3)

The first three rounds of last offseason’s consensus devy ADP are under the microscope. Who’s risen, who’s fallen, and who’s worth buying before the market corrects?

Devy value is volatile, it always has been. Player perception can swing wildly from one month to the next, and the first two rounds of any devy draft are where those shifts hit hardest. These are supposed to be the “safe” picks, the cornerstones of your roster. But as this season reminded us, even an elite pedigree doesn’t guarantee elite returns.

In this article, I’ll revisit the top 36 players from our consensus devy ADP last offseason, breaking them down in chunks of two rounds each week. We’ll look at how each player’s season has unfolded, whether their stock is rising, falling, or holding steady, and most importantly, what to do next with that information.

The early selections have delivered a mix of dominance, disappointment, and everything in between. From Jeremiah Smith’s continued reign as WR1 to the growing uncertainty around several high-profile quarterbacks, this group tells the story of how fragile devy value can be once the games actually start.

1st Round

The opening round of any devy draft is where expectations soar. This is where managers plant their flags on future NFL stars. Historically, it doesn’t take many misses in this range to tank a roster’s long-term value, but compared to past years, this group has held up better than expected.

Still, the risk of drafting quarterbacks early reared its ugly head once again. A few signal-callers have flashed the upside that made them top picks, while others reminded us why investing heavily in the position can be such a gamble. That’s the tightrope of devy roster construction: chase the positional scarcity and elite upside, and you’re often one bad season from a major value hit.

Overall, Round 1 has fewer true busts than we’ve seen in previous cycles, but the variance is still striking. The lesson here: even in a “safer” class, first-round capital doesn’t guarantee stability, especially at quarterback.

1.01 – Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State

This one was a no-brainer from the start. Smith entered the offseason as the consensus 1.01, and while it’s hard to rise from the top spot, he’s done everything to maintain elite-level value, which is just as impressive.

It’s been a historic campaign for the Buckeye star. Smith became the fastest player in Ohio State history to reach 25 career touchdowns, doing it in just 25 games and surpassing David Boston’s previous mark of 30. Through nine games this season, he’s totaled 65 receptions for 862 yards and 10 touchdowns, including a recent 10-catch, 137-yard performance against Purdue. Simply put, he’s dominating.

At 6’3” and 225 pounds, Smith checks every box: explosive speed, polished route running, physicality at the catch point, and a football IQ that makes him nearly unguardable. Press him, and he’ll outmuscle you. Give him space, and he’ll carve you up in the soft spots of coverage. Since the CFP semifinal loss to Texas last season, no defense has held him under five receptions, a testament to his consistency and adaptability.

With favorable matchups ahead (UCLA, Rutgers, and a ranked Michigan team), Smith has a legitimate shot to rewrite Ohio State’s record books and cement himself as the school’s greatest receiver ever. He’s on pace to challenge Terry Glenn’s single-season TD record (17) and could easily surpass last year’s totals.

Stock: ➖ Steady
Verdict: HOLD – You can’t buy what isn’t for sale, and you’re not selling a generational talent. He’s still the cornerstone WR1 in devy, and anyone trying to move him should only do so if the return is historic.

1.02 – Ryan Williams, WR, Alabama

This one’s a little more complicated. Coming into the season, many expected Ryan Williams to join Jeremiah Smith in that elite top tier, but we just haven’t seen that jump yet. His value hasn’t cratered; he’s not performing like a bust, just not quite living up to that 1.02 billing. He’s still viewed as a mid-first-round devy asset, and some managers would gladly take him that high again based on talent and ceiling alone.

Through nine games, Williams has logged 36 receptions for 528 yards and four touchdowns. Solid production, but not the takeover numbers we hoped for from a player with this much hype. Part of that has been injury-related, he’s been banged up for much of the year and hasn’t been close to 100%. The flashes are there: his acceleration, his fluidity after the catch, and his ability to win in space all remain elite traits. When Alabama leans on the passing game, he’s still the most dynamic option on the field.

The challenge is consistency and health. He’s shown glimpses of being a game-changer, but those moments need to turn into sustained dominance. Down the stretch, especially if Alabama makes a deep playoff run, Williams will have a chance to reassert himself as a top-tier devy receiver, and that potential alone keeps him in the conversation.

Stock: 🔻 Slight Dip
Verdict: BUY – The shine has dimmed a bit, but this is exactly when you pounce. His value has cooled just enough to make him a smart acquisition before a late-season resurgence or bounce-back next year restores his full price tag.

1.03 – Arch Manning, QB, Texas

Drafting Arch Manning this high was always a gamble — but that’s the nature of betting on elite quarterback traits. You take the risk because the payoff could be massive if he develops into the next first-overall pick. Early on, it looked like that investment might burn managers. Now? He’s showing flashes of what everyone hoped for when he committed to Texas.

It’s been a rollercoaster season. Manning’s inconsistency has been his biggest hurdle, but his talent has never been in question. He’s put together some strong outings, highlighted by a comeback win over Mississippi State before leaving with a concussion, and a poised performance against a top-10 Vanderbilt defense. But those highs have been matched with some lows, rough outings against Florida and UTEP, where turnovers and decision-making issues resurfaced.

Statistically, Manning has thrown for 2,123 yards, 18 touchdowns, and six interceptions, posting an 80.2 PFF grade with 13 big-time throws. The concern lies in his 12 turnover-worthy plays, though he’s tightened that up with none over his last three games, an encouraging sign of growth. At 6’4”, 220, he’s got the frame, arm talent, and movement skills that still make NFL scouts drool.

The next few weeks are critical. With Georgia and Texas A&M looming, his performances in those games will likely define his devy value heading into 2026. If he holds up and leads Texas into the playoff conversation, he could easily climb back into Round 1 range. But if the inconsistency continues, managers may need to recalibrate expectations.

Stock: 🔻 Fallen
Verdict: HOLD – The volatility is real, but the traits are too rare to sell low. If he closes strong, his narrative flips fast. If he struggles, he’ll still have one more year to reestablish himself, and that could make this the perfect “wait it out” moment.

1.04 – DJ Lagway, QB, Florida

This one’s rough. DJ Lagway entered the season as one of the premier devy assets in college football, the No. 1 QB in the 2027 class, and a potential future cornerstone. Fast forward to now, and he’s become one of the biggest fallers in the entire top-60. His season has been a perfect storm of poor play, regression, and instability around him.

Lagway’s thrown for 1,762 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, with eight of those picks coming since the opener. He’s been benched, his head coach has been fired, and his confidence looks shot. What makes the situation worse is that the mistakes aren’t all from pressure, nine of his interceptions came from a clean pocket, showing major issues with decision-making and ball placement.

Mechanically, he’s still the same 6’3”, 247-pound athlete with a cannon arm and legitimate rushing upside, but his deep ball has been a mess. He’s just 11-for-34 on throws 20+ yards downfield and has six interceptions on those attempts. Lagway’s tendency to rely on short and underneath throws (two-thirds of his passes within eight yards of the line) has capped his ceiling and made the Florida offense painfully predictable.

It’s a collapse, plain and simple. But the raw traits haven’t vanished. He still flashes mobility and toughness in the pocket, forcing 16 missed tackles on the year, and if he transfers and lands in the right system, there’s still time for redemption.

For now, he’s a hold and pray type asset. There’s no sense selling him at rock bottom, but you can’t buy in confidently either. The best-case scenario is a portal move and an offseason reset.

Stock: 🔻 Major Drop
Verdict: HOLD – The arm talent and athletic profile are still there, but his stock is buried after a disastrous season. Unless he transfers to a program that can rebuild his confidence and scheme to his strengths, he’s a depreciating asset, but one still worth stashing if you can stomach the volatility.

1.05 – Cam Coleman, WR, Auburn

Like Ryan Williams, Cam Coleman is one of those players who’s flashed everything you want to see but hasn’t quite had the breakout we were all hoping for. The main culprit isn’t talent, it’s Auburn’s offense. That unit has been flat-out dysfunctional at times, making it hard for any receiver to showcase consistency or top-end production.

Coleman, the “other” five-star receiver from the 2024 class alongside Jeremiah Smith, remains an elite physical specimen. At 6’3”, 201 pounds with verified sub-4.5 speed, explosive leaping ability, and a lightning-quick short shuttle, he has every measurable trait NFL scouts crave. And even in chaos, he’s delivered when given opportunity. He’s caught 84 passes for 1,215 yards and 12 touchdowns through his first two seasons despite subpar quarterback play.

This year, his 69.4 PFF grade, 1.83 yards per route run, and 12.9 ADOT reflect a player doing what he can with limited help. His 10-catch, 143-yard, 1-TD game against Vanderbilt was a reminder of his ceiling, when the targets come, he produces.

The big question is what happens next. Auburn’s coaching change looms large, and keeping Coleman on campus should be priority number one. He’s the type of player who could explode with competent quarterback play or an offensive mind willing to scheme to his strengths. Whether that’s in Auburn or via the portal, the upside remains untouched.

Stock: 🔻 Slight Dip
Verdict: BUY – The environment’s been brutal, not the talent. Coleman’s still a first-round devy asset with NFL-level tools and untapped potential. If his next system upgrades the passing game, this current discount won’t last long.

1.06 – Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

It’s rare for a running back taken at 1.06 to increase his value, but Jeremiyah Love has done exactly that and then some. He’s been a home-run pick and currently sits #1 on my overall devy big board. Love has not only met expectations but exceeded them to the point where a Heisman campaign feels justified. He’s been that good.

Love has emerged as college football’s most complete running back, leading the nation in total touchdowns (16) while ranking top-five in nearly every major rushing category. Through nine games, he’s logged 154 carries for 988 yards and 13 touchdowns, plus 24 receptions for 254 yards and three scores. That’s 1,242 total yards and 16 total touchdowns, elite, every-down production.

His efficiency has been off the charts. Love owns a 91.9 PFF rushing grade, 43 missed tackles forced, and 3.86 yards after contact per attempt. He’s ripped off 28 explosive runs and posted a 104 elusive rating, showing he can create chunk plays in any situation. Even his pass blocking, once the biggest hole in his game, has improved to a 61.7 grade, further rounding out his NFL résumé.

At 6’0”, 205, Love combines effortless acceleration, balance, and vision with breakaway speed that few can match. He became the first player in Notre Dame history with two career 90+ yard rushing touchdowns, and his 228-yard performance vs. USC shattered the single-game rushing record at Notre Dame Stadium.

Simply put, Love looks like the only true first-round RB prospect in the country. He’s in the thick of the Maxwell and Doak Walker Award races, and his stock couldn’t be higher.

Stock: 🔺 Rising Fast
Verdict: BUY – Love has ascended into elite territory, both in production and NFL projection. He’s a cornerstone asset with every trait dynasty and devy managers covet — three-down ability, explosiveness, and polish. If you can get him for anything less than 1.01 pricing, you’re winning.

1.07 – T.J. Moore, WR, Clemson

It’s been a tough year for TJ Moore, and there’s no sugarcoating it. After entering the season with legitimate top-10 devy buzz, Moore has underwhelmed in nearly every category. Through nine games, he’s posted 31 receptions for 536 yards and four touchdowns, but most of that production has come after Bryant Wesco Jr. went down for the year. Before that, he was largely invisible in Clemson’s stagnant passing attack.

Moore’s 67.9 PFF receiving grade and 1.98 yards per route run tell the story: average efficiency, little separation, and few impact plays. He hasn’t taken the sophomore leap many expected. The one bright spot: he’s been sure-handed, with just one drop all season, showing at least some refinement in that area.

Still, the reality is that Moore has lost value. Clemson’s offense has been inconsistent, the quarterback play hasn’t helped, and Moore himself hasn’t done enough to rise above it. His routes lack crispness, and the explosiveness we saw flashes of as a freshman has been more “tease” than “trend.”

At this point, he feels like a player who could benefit from a fresh start, whether that’s a new offensive system at Clemson or a transfer to a more pass-friendly program. The raw ability is still there; it just needs development and a cleaner ecosystem.

Stock: 🔻 Fallen
Verdict: HOLD – The breakout didn’t happen, and his stock has dipped accordingly. But Moore’s physical profile and early flashes still make him worth stashing. If he hits the portal or Clemson revamps its offense, you’ll be glad you waited.

1.08 – LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina

LaNorris Sellers’ season has been a mixed bag, not a full-on value collapse, but certainly not the leap many were betting on at 1.08. His physical tools still give him massive long-term upside, but the production hasn’t matched the hype.

On the year, Sellers is 123-of-204 for 1,532 yards, seven touchdowns, and five interceptions, with 10 big-time throws and 10 turnover-worthy plays. As a runner, he remains dangerous: 425 rushing yards on 88 carries with three scores, flashing the explosiveness that put him on the devy radar in the first place.

But South Carolina’s offense has imploded around him. The unit is a mess, the Gamecocks sit at 3–6, and Sellers’ development has taken a hit as a result. He’s completing fewer passes, producing fewer explosive plays, and struggling to elevate an offense that’s often overwhelmed at the line of scrimmage. He’s been pressured on 47.8% of his dropbacks, the highest mark in the country by a massive margin, nearly 15% more than the next quarterback. Under those conditions, even top-tier prospects struggle.

Despite the step back, NFL scouts still love the tools. Todd McShay and others have echoed the same sentiment: Sellers should return to school to refine his game before making the jump. At 6’3”, 240+, with legit 4.4 speed and a top-tier arm, the upside is undeniable. He can generate velocity from any platform, extend plays, and rip NFL-level throws into tight windows. The flashes are still there, just buried under pressure, inconsistent footwork, and a broken offensive ecosystem.

Sellers has areas he must clean up: accuracy outside the numbers, touch on layered throws, avoiding panic under pressure, and turnover management (16 fumbles in two years). But he’s only 20 years old, and the processing, toughness, and athletic traits are better than what most QBs bring to the table at this stage.

He’s a high-variance, high-reward type of devy asset. one who could still become a first-round NFL starter with the right development arc.

Stock: 🔻 Down, but not destroyed
Verdict: HOLD – The ceiling remains enormous. With his tools, one good season, whether at South Carolina or in the portal, can launch him back into Round 1 devy conversations. Selling now, at his lowest point, is precisely how you miss out on the breakout. If there is any wavering by your leaguemates on him though he could be a great high risk high reward buy.

1.09 – Darius Taylor, RB, Minnesota

Darius Taylor is one of the toughest evaluations in this entire first round, not because of talent, but because the injuries simply won’t stop. When he’s healthy, Taylor looks like one of the most dynamic backs in the Big Ten. But the key phrase is when he’s healthy, and that’s been a rare sight over the last three seasons.

Taylor burst onto the scene as a true freshman, ripping off 138+ rushing yards and a touchdown in each of his first three career starts. He looked like the next great Minnesota workhorse. Since then? The story has flipped. Minnesota has played 14 games since that breakout stretch, and Taylor hasn’t hit even 10 touches in any of them due to recurring injuries.

The impact is undeniable. With Taylor active and involved, Minnesota wins 70% of its games. Without him, they win 40%. The offense averages 30 fewer rushing yards and 60 fewer total yards per game when he’s sidelined. He changes everything for this team yet his body continues to betray him.

This season, Taylor has appeared in just six games, posting:
80 carries, 354 yards, 1 touchdown
That’s barely a footprint for a player who should be one of the most productive backs in the country. Worse, he’s looked less explosive each year, and the constant injuries have taken a toll on his burst, confidence, and NFL outlook.

At 6’0”, 215, the physical traits are still there. When he’s actually on the field, Taylor can run through contact, hit big plays, and catch the ball well enough to profile as a three-down threat. But availability matters, and right now, that’s the biggest strike against him. All signs point to him returning next season, but from an NFL projection standpoint, his stock has taken significant damage.

Stock: 🔻 Major Drop
Verdict: SELL – It hurts because the talent is real. But three straight seasons of durability issues have crushed his devy and NFL stock. If anyone in your league still believes in the upside, move him. The odds he ever stays healthy long enough to rebuild Round 1 value are shrinking fast.

1.10 – Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

This is what betting on upside looks like when it pays off. Carnell Tate entered the year as a traits-based projection, polished, fluid, technically advanced, but waiting for the full breakout. Now? He’s delivered one of the biggest value climbs in the entire first round and looks every bit like a future WR1 at the college and NFL levels.

Before Jeremiah Smith arrived in Columbus, Tate was the original headliner of Ohio State’s next wave of elite receivers. A former top-25 recruit known for clean routes and effortless hands, he came into college already looking like a polished product. This year, he’s taken that profile and turned it into real, sustained production.

Through seven games, Tate has posted:
39 receptions, 711 yards, 7 touchdowns (18.2 YPC)
He’s recorded four 100-yard, one-TD games, tied for the most in the FBS, and he ranks top five nationally in receptions of 20+ air yards. He’s become Ohio State’s premier vertical playmaker, thriving on timing, leverage, and detail rather than pure straight-line speed.

The chemistry with Julian Sayin has been a difference-maker. Tate routinely punishes single coverage while defensive attention shifts toward Jeremiah Smith. That balance has given Ohio State one of the most devastating WR duos in the country — and in some games, Tate has been the more consistent option.

The advanced metrics back up the rise:

• 3.52 Yards Per Route Run (3rd nationally)

• 14.0 ADOT

• 0 drops

• Elite body control and hands at the catch point

Tate’s tape shows a receiver who already plays like a pro, polished releases, nuanced stems, a deep bag of pacing tools, and an ability to manipulate leverage like a veteran. He’s tough, unselfish as a blocker, and wins with both intelligence and technique. The only real knocks are functional strength and separation vs. elite press corners, but those are coachable fixes.

What matters for devy managers: Tate isn’t the “other” Buckeye receiver anymore. He’s a future first-round NFL pick who has firmly established himself as a top-10 overall devy asset heading into 2026.

Stock: 🔺 Major Riser
Verdict: BUY – This is the perfect blend of performance, profile, and projection. Tate is surging and still has room to grow. If anyone in your league still thinks Jeremiah Smith overshadows him, take advantage; that window is closing fast.

1.11 – Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

Jordyn Tyson’s value has essentially held steady, but with some real warning signs starting to creep in. The flashes are absolutely still there, the separation, the fluidity, the ability to win at all three levels but the injuries and inconsistencies in his profile are beginning to matter more and more for devy managers.

This year, Tyson has recorded 628 yards and eight touchdowns in seven games, including four 100-yard outings. When he’s out there, he looks like a first-round talent. The problem? Arizona State has now played multiple stretches without him, and this marks the third straight season where he’s missed time due to injury.

His recent résumé is impressive, but also concerning:

• 2022 (Colorado): promising true freshman season, ended by a knee injury

• 2023 (ASU): transferred and played in only 3 games while recovering

• 2024: full breakout — 75/1,101/10 — ended by a broken collarbone

• 2025: explosive again, but missing games again

You can’t ignore repeated injuries at the position, especially when they’re happening every year.

The talent is undeniably there. Tyson is a natural separator with real vertical juice and polished route detail. He understands leverage, wins early in routes, and has the speed to stack corners. He’s shown he can be a legitimate WR1 in a Power Four offense. But the red flags are exactly why his value hasn’t risen, even though the production is strong:

1. Durability – three straight seasons with missed time

2. Blocking Effort – simply not there; evaluators notice

None of these is fatal, but together, they chip away at the profile.

From a devy standpoint, Tyson remains a strong prospect, likely still a fringe Round 1-type wideout based on pure ability. However, he’s also the epitome of a risk profile that requires careful handling.

Stock: ➖ Holding, but with volatility
Verdict: HOLD (but shop the market) – If a rebuilding manager in your league believes Tyson is a future WR1 and is willing to pay that price, I’m listening. Otherwise, the smart move is to hold. He’s talented enough to deliver a real return if he finally puts together a fully healthy season, but the margin for error is narrowing.

1.12 – Nicholas Singleton, RB, Penn State

Nicholas Singleton is one of the toughest evaluations in Round 1, not because the talent disappeared, but because the trajectory of his career hasn’t matched the expectations everyone had for him. He was supposed to push for the Penn State rushing record, enter the draft as a top-three running back, and deliver a signature senior year. Instead, 2025 has been his most inconsistent and least explosive season to date.

That said, his performance against No. 2 Indiana was a reminder of why devy managers have been so invested. Singleton scored three touchdowns, flashed that trademark long speed, and even showed improved work in the passing game. With those scores, he joined Saquon Barkley as the only Penn State players to top 50 career touchdowns, elite company by any measure.

But zoom out, and the concerns are real. Through this season, Singleton has:

• 363 rushing yards on 92 attempts (3.9 YPC)

• A career-low 13 missed tackles forced

• Just 7 explosive runs

• His lowest-ever elusive rating

He’s been a better receiver than runner this year, which says everything about the lack of explosion and the difficulty he’s had consistently creating on the ground. The spark we saw as a freshman, where every touch felt like a threat, has been replaced with hesitation, tightness, and reduced burst. Whether it’s scheme, confidence, usage, or wear and tear, this has not been the step forward anyone expected.

Singleton still sits at 3,275 career rushing yards, but the dream of breaking Evan Royster’s all-time Penn State record seems out of reach unless he erupts down the stretch. More importantly for devy, his NFL stock has taken a real hit. The saving grace is that he has the Senior Bowl ahead, and that event may determine whether he reclaims Round 2 draft capital or falls into a muddier projection.

He’s become the ultimate wild card: the résumé is elite, the flashes still show up, but the weekly consistency and explosiveness have fallen off a cliff.

Stock: 🔻 Significant Decline
Verdict: HOLD – You can’t sell him now; this is the lowest his value has been since he stepped foot on campus. Singleton still has the traits to heat up late, and a strong Senior Bowl week could completely reshape his narrative. But for now, he’s one of the biggest disappointments of the first round, and you’re simply waiting to see if he can bounce back.

2nd Round

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