Brock Purdy: The Discount QB1 With Top-5 Upside
Why Brock Purdy’s efficiency, weapons, and offensive environment give him a real path to a top-5 fantasy QB season.
I’ll be honest. I have never been a Brock Purdy fan or a Brock Purdy stan. That is what makes this game so funny. In dynasty, you can have strong takes. You can plant flags. You can believe in certain profiles and fade others. But if you want to win leagues, you also have to be willing to adjust. You cannot get so attached to your priors that you ignore what is happening right in front of you.
Purdy is that adjustment for me. For a long time, I viewed him as the classic “good real-life quarterback, limited fantasy ceiling” type. A player who benefited from Kyle Shanahan, elite weapons, and one of the best offensive ecosystems in football. And to be fair, all of those things are still true.
But at some point, the production starts to matter. Since taking over as the 49ers’ starter, Purdy has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in football. His full-season fantasy finishes have not always looked elite because availability has gotten in the way, especially in 2025, when injuries dragged him down to a QB24 overall finish. But when he was actually on the field, he was producing like a high-end fantasy option, averaging over 20 fantasy points per game.
That was not a one-year blip either. In 2024, Purdy finished as the QB13 overall. In 2023, he finished as the QB6. Even back in 2022, after taking over late in the season, he was a QB1 on a points-per-game basis. So maybe this is the year we stop treating Purdy like a low-end QB1 or high-end QB2 and start asking a different question.
What if this is the season where everything lines up? The efficiency is already there. The offense is still built to create explosives. The play caller remains one of the best in football. The weapons are still strong. And if Purdy gets a full season of health, this could be the best fantasy year of his career. Yes, calling Brock Purdy a potential top-five fantasy quarterback might feel lofty. But that is exactly where the value is. The market is still pricing him like a safe system quarterback. I think there is a real chance we look back and realize he was one of the cheapest top-five bets on the board.
The Market Still Does Not Fully Believe
This is the funny part with Brock Purdy. He keeps producing, but managers still treat him like he is one bad stretch away from being exposed. Every time he puts up numbers, there is always a reason people want to explain it away. It is Kyle Shanahan. It is the weapons. It is Christian McCaffrey. It is George Kittle. It is the scheme. All of those things matter, but fantasy football does not care why the points show up. It only cares that they do.
That is where managers get themselves in trouble. They spend so much time trying to discount Purdy’s production that they miss the actual value sitting right in front of them. Nobody is saying Purdy is Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. Nobody is saying he carries the same rushing ceiling as the elite fantasy quarterbacks.
But that is also the point. He is not being priced like those guys. He is being viewed more like a safe QB2 or a borderline QB1 who can help your roster but probably will not swing your league. That feels too low when you look at what he has already done.
Purdy has already shown he can produce in this offense. He has already given us QB1 stretches. He has already shown the efficiency can translate to fantasy. Yet managers still talk about him like he is just along for the ride. That creates the opportunity. The market is not really pricing in the production. It is pricing in the excuses. Managers see the Shanahan system and knock him down. They see the weapons and knock him down. They see the lack of elite rushing and knock him down again. At some point, that becomes the buying window. Because if the cost is lower than the production profile, that is where value lives. Purdy does not need everyone to believe in him. He just needs to keep doing what he has already done. This year, I think there is a real chance managers are too low again.
Efficiency Is the Foundation
The biggest reason I’m willing to make this bet on Brock Purdy is the efficiency. I know that can sound boring. Nobody is firing up a draft room because a quarterback has a strong yards-per-attempt profile. But when that quarterback is attached to Kyle Shanahan, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Mike Evans, Ricky Pearsall, Christian Kirk, De’Zhaun Stribling and one of the best offensive structures in football, efficiency matters.
That is the foundation of the entire case. Purdy does not need 40 attempts every week to matter. He does not need to run for 700 yards. He does not need the 49ers to completely change their identity. He just needs this offense to stay healthy and let him drive it.
That is where I think managers still get Purdy wrong. They talk about him like he is just along for the ride. The numbers tell a different story. Since entering the league, Purdy has averaged around 8.9 yards per attempt with a career adjusted net yards per attempt near 7.8. Those are not empty completions. Those are chunk plays. Those are efficient drives. Those are throws that create real fantasy value.
He also fits this offense perfectly because he plays on time. When the ball needs to come out quickly, he gets it out. On throws under 2.5 seconds, Purdy has regularly ranked near the top of the league, with passer rating marks over 118 in those situations. That matters in this offense. Shanahan wants rhythm, timing, leverage, and yards after the catch. Purdy gives him that.
The part that gets overlooked is that Purdy is not just a short-area quarterback. He has also been one of the better downfield passers in the league, especially on throws traveling 10-plus and 20-plus yards. That is where the ceiling comes from. He can take the easy throws, but he can also hit the explosive ones.
The late-down profile is another reason I am buying in. In 2025, Purdy led all NFL quarterbacks in EPA per play on third and fourth downs among quarterbacks with at least 100 late-down plays. His mark was 0.58. Jordan Love finished second at 0.42. Drake Maye was third at 0.33. Josh Allen checked in at 0.20. Patrick Mahomes was at 0.15. Jalen Hurts was at 0.14.
That gap matters. Late downs are where drives either die or turn into fantasy points. Third and fourth down conversions keep the offense on the field. They create more plays. They create more red-zone chances. They create more touchdown opportunities. Purdy being that good in those moments is not some random stat to ignore. Even in a shortened 2025 season, he completed 69.4% of his passes on 284 attempts for 2,167 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. More importantly, 130 of his 197 completions went for first downs. That tells you he was not just padding numbers. He was moving the offense.
That is the case for Purdy. He is accurate. He is aggressive enough to create explosives. He works inside the timing of the offense. He has a high yards-per-attempt profile. He does not need massive volume to produce. My bet is that this could be the best offensive environment he has had. If that is true, Purdy does not need to force his way into a top-five fantasy season. The efficiency can carry him there. The weapons can elevate him. The system can create the explosive plays. The touchdown volume can follow. Purdy’s ceiling starts with efficiency, and if this version of the 49ers offense hits, he could be the efficient driver of one of the best fantasy ecosystems in football.
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