The NFL season is well underway, and we know exactly who the contenders, pretenders, and bottom-feeders are. While plenty of games remain in the college football season, we’re also seeing a top tier of prospects, suggesting confidence in who will become a first-round pick, who may return to school, and who is falling down big boards.

As the calendar turns to November, here’s how I see the first round playing out next spring.

1. Los Angeles Chargers | Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State

This one is pretty self-explanatory for anyone who has watched Ohio State play even once in the last three years. Smith is college football’s best, and the Chargers have a massive need at wide receiver. While they obviously have many other issues, and wide receiver is generally not considered a premium position, at least in this range of the draft, getting cute with this pick would be one of the franchise's more regrettable decisions. Smith is the best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson, and he should step on the field as a rookie and be one of the league's ten best receivers.

2. Tennessee Titans | Colin Simmons, EDGE, Texas

While the Titans haven’t gotten the offensive output they want this season, it’s hard to put all the blame on Cam Ward. In fact, Robert Saleh recently suggested he’s not putting much blame on Ward, indicating the team still believes Ward can be their franchise quarterback. That said, the team desperately needs defensive playmakers. Simmons is exactly that, wreaking havoc on opposing offensive lines throughout his career. While an injury will sideline him for the foreseeable future, his long-term health isn’t in question, and he remains one of the three best players in the class.

3. Miami Dolphins | Drew Mestemaker, QB, Oklahoma State

Malik Willis was genuinely good this week, but it’s the first time all season that he wasn’t a liability. The team has a plethora of significant needs, but we have too much evidence that Willis is a below-average NFL quarterback, and only a small glimpse of him being consistently good. Even if the team decided to roll with Willis for another year, passing on Mestemaker here would be almost malpractice. While things haven’t been perfect for the Oklahoma State star, he's putting more NFL-level throws on tape every week, his lack of experience should be viewed as a strength, and he’s clearly been the best quarterback in the class so far, given his combination of tools and skill set.

4. Philadelphia Eagles (from WAS) | Zereoue Williams, OT, Utah

Trade details: PHI sends Nos. 12, 43, and a 2028 1st-round pick to WAS for No. 4.

With Lane Johnson’s retirement, the Eagles have a massive offensive line need for the first time in many, many years. This class has a ton of guys who could become All-Pro performers with further development, but none have the combination of athletic traits and sound mechanics teams want… except Williams. Williams was biding time behind first-round picks Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu, and he unironically might end up better than both of them. Williams stands at 6’8 and weighs 305 pounds. Most taller tackles struggle with leverage, but Williams’s mechanics, ability to sit low in his pass sets, and excellent movement skills give him elite upside.

5. Houston Texans | Lance Heard, OT, Kentucky

Candidly, I’m not all-in on Heard yet. While we’ve seen him excel as a mauler, I still struggle quite a bit with his technique, specifically in his hip hinge. He gets off balance frequently, and while his raw strength and anchor ability can get him off the hook, he still has plenty of room to grow if he’s going to be a good pick in this area of the draft. Still, the raw traits offer more upside than Aireontae Ersery has through the first seven weeks of this season, and the Texans need to continue building the offensive line up in front of C.J. Stroud. Unpressured Stroud is genuinely one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, so finally solving the offensive line issue could reopen the Texans’ Super Bowl window.

6. New York Jets (via IND) | Leonard Moore, CB, Notre Dame

While the Jets seem to have found something in Azareye’h Thomas (expected, if you’ve followed my NFL Draft work over the last few years), the team still has a glaring hole in the secondary. Brandon Stephens has been pretty good this year, but he’s not a long-term answer in the cornerback room. Inserting Moore, one of the class’s best players, into a promising defense would elevate the potential for the next head coach. While a quarterback here makes sense, we’ll get to that later. The Jets do have three first-rounders, after all.

7. Arizona Cardinals | Chris Cole, LB, Georgia

A top-ten linebacker is often frowned upon, especially when it’s the Cardinals making the selection, but the glaring, crippling need combined with a player who possesses elite, top-five-in-the-league upside makes this a slam dunk. The Cardinals have trotted Mack Wilson Sr. out there for three seasons, and he’s been bad in all three. Jack Gibbens has been a solid find, but he’s a replacement-level player who can’t anchor the second line of a defense. Cole, however, possesses elite range, football IQ, and instincts, making him one of the best defensive playmakers in the class.

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Dylan Stewart, EDGE, South Carolina

Off-field issues aside, Stewart is a top-five talent. Since serving his suspension, he’s been even more dominant, using elite length, speed, and power to muddy pockets, impact the run game, and be the force many anticipated when he initially returned from his injury. Falling to No. 8 is solely because of the off-field concerns, and the Bucs run it back with another first-round edge rusher, one year after selecting Rueben Bain Jr. They haven’t been awful at generating pressure, but they still need more if they want to elevate the defense and turn back into a potential NFC South contender.

9. New York Jets | Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss

While Mestemaker is the clear No. 1 quarterback through the first chunk of the 2026 season, the battle for QB2 remains heated. With Dante Moore still sidelined after a bad concussion, I’m rolling with Chambliss here. He’s one of the smartest quarterbacks in college football, throwing with elite anticipation and accuracy more often than not. Folks will point out Chambliss is one of the oldest quarterback prospects over the last few years, but at a position where there isn’t a significant age cliff, and with all of his experience throughout his college career, I’m not concerned about it. His size is concerning, but he has the tools necessary to overcome that. The Jets obviously need a long-term answer at the position, though they seemingly always have.

10. New Orleans Saints | Ashton Hampton, CB, Clemson

A few players are competing for the CB2 spot in the draft, but none have been as impressive as Hampton this year. He’s tied for the lead in pass breakups with nine, with physicality being his calling card. The Saints have one of the worst pass-coverage units in the NFL, with only Martin Emerson meeting expectations. The team needs a shutdown cornerback, and Hampton has the upside to become an island corner in the NFL.

11. New York Jets (via DAL) | Xavier Gilliam, DT, Tennessee

While I wanted to trade out of this pick, the Jets stick and pick the best defensive tackle in the class, at least through the first large chunk of this season. Gilliam, a Penn State transfer, arrived in Tennessee and immediately started dominating. With power, leverage, and an understanding of the position, Gilliam has been a game-wrecker for the Volunteers. He’s up to seven sacks, with two against Texas, and has manhandled everyone in his path. While the sample of this level of play is still small, he’s juiced with too much upside to be cautious with his evaluation.

12. Washington Commanders | Nick Marsh, WR, Indiana

This may come as a surprise to folks who have watched Indiana, but Marsh is arguably a better prospect when discussing upside at the next level. He hasn’t quite put it all together, which is why he's ranked slightly below Becker (you’ll see shortly), but he’s an excellent player who could be one of the ten-best wideouts in the NFL at some point. The Commanders have a problem at all of their skill positions, and I’m not positive that Terry McLaurin will return to form following his season-ending injury. That leaves just Antonio Williams as an exciting piece around Jayden Daniels. Daniels has had a slow start to this year, and adding Becker would give him more to work with in 2028.

13. Las Vegas Raiders | Charlie Becker, WR, Indiana

The IU receivers going in back-to-back picks would be fun, but it also makes sense. While Becker may be more of a deep threat than anything else at the NFL level, it’s easy to see him following an Alec Pierce-like path through the first few years of his career. He’s one of the best ball-winners I’ve ever scouted, especially in contested situations, and he consistently makes really good cornerbacks look inadequate. Obviously, a reunion with Fernando Mendoza would be welcomed by everyone involved, but the Raiders desperately need to add to their receiver room if they want to contend in 2028 and beyond.

14. Cleveland Browns (via LAR) | Austin Simmons, QB, Missouri

Browns fans, I don’t want you to hate this pick. First, I think the path Deshaun Watson has taken this team on is unsustainable. While he’s been arguably the best quarterback in the league during fourth quarters, the team can’t go into 2028 with no development option, especially with a talented, young roster. Simmons is my QB6, and he certainly isn’t perfect yet. But he has legitimate tools, unreal ball placement, and reads the field better than many more experienced players. He’s still young, and he may not declare. Still, if he does, the Browns getting a bridge quarterback in the building (maybe that’s Watson for one more year) so Simmons can develop would be an ideal situation.

15. Atlanta Falcons | Jordan Seaton, OT, LSU

Jake Matthews is 34, and the Falcons don’t have a long-term solution for when he’s done playing football. Seaton provides that, with immense upside that should push him into the top 20 picks, even if the play has been inconsistent. He’s still figuring out how to run block, but his film reminds me of Charles Cross’s, with a stronger pass-blocking skill set. I think he’s part of an exciting, albeit unknown, offensive tackle class, and he could easily end up the best one.

16. Baltimore Ravens | Ellis Robinson IV, CB, Georgia

Robinson and Hampton are the two most likely candidates for CB2, and in this scenario, Robinson won’t have to wait long to become CB3. The Ravens have a cornerback problem: Nate Wiggins has been inconsistent, Chidobe Awuzie has been bad, and Marlon Humphrey is on the tail end of his career. Insert Robinson, an elite athlete who is beginning to develop the technique that makes for excellent cornerbacks. I want to see him become more physical down the stretch, but his ability to mirror routes, recover when he gets beat, and close space is unmatched in the class.

17. Seattle Seahawks | Greg Johnson, G, Minnesota

As you can see, I’m a little bit lower on Johnson than consensus. I think he’s been outstanding, but less consistent as a mauler than people have made him out to be. That said, his upside as a body-mover is extremely high, with elite strength that would hold up well in the NFL if he were playing on Sundays right now. He looks like a ten-year starter, which is valuable, especially for a Seahawks team with a rotating turnstile at right guard. Whether Grey Zabel moves there to free up Johnson on the left, or Jalen Sundell leaves the team and one of them pops into center, Johnson has a spot.

18. New England Patriots | Brauntae Johnson, S, Notre Dame

It’s important to note that his position on my big board is impacted by this season’s production; he’s only played 12 snaps this season. He’s set to return in November, and he’ll vault back up inside the top 32 because he’s absurdly talented. With elite burst, range, and coverage ability, Johnson would unlock a new level to the Patriots’ defense. With Kevin Byard holding down the free safety position for the team currently, they need a long-term solution, and Johnson looks like a multi-contract starter in the NFL. We’ll see how he plays when he returns from his foot injury, as they can be more problematic than others, especially for defensive backs. For now, I’m still excited about his prospects.

19. Carolina Panthers | Trevor Lauck, OT, Iowa

I’m obviously higher on Lauck than I think the NFL will be. He’s completely sound as a pass blocker, a mauler in the run game, and has film that reminds me of Will Campbell’s college tape. Still, length and size concerns remain, and I understand why he’s viewed a little less favorably than a few others in the class. With Rasheed Walker on a one-year deal and Taylor Moton’s latest injury, the team desperately needs answers at tackle.

20. Dallas (via GB) | Cam Coleman, WR, Texas

Candidly, Coleman hasn’t played like a first-round player for most of this year, so this is just a bet on traits and development. Coleman has a ton of them, though, and despite the concerns about his hands and concentration drops, I still think he has a solid chance to be an excellent NFL receiver. There’s a lot of Tee Higgins in his game, though I would love to see him stronger at the catch point as he develops. With George Pickens potentially on his way out, the Cowboys will need a replacement.

21. New York Giants | Will Echoles, DT, Ole Miss

The Giants have a clear need on their defensive line with just D.J. Reader playing well on the interior. Pairing Echoles with Abdul Carter, Reader, and Brian Burns would make for a lethal pass rush that could give the Giants opportunities to win the NFC East for quite a few years. Echoles has powerful hands, an elite first step, and can close space like an edge rusher, despite his smaller, thicker stature.

22. Jacksonville Jaguars | KJ Bolden, S, Georgia

Bolden has been a bit disappointing this year compared to my expectations after summer scouting, but he’s still been one of the best safeties in the class, and the safety class is incredibly deep. Size concerns remain, but elite instincts, sound tackling mechanics, and remarkable coverage skills make him one of the most intriguing players in the group. Antonio Johnson has been fine this year, but the team needs to upgrade the safety room heading into next year.

23. Cincinnati Bengals | Yhonzae Pierre, EDGE, Alabama

It seems like the Shemar Stewart experience is over (who would have thought, to be honest?), and the Bengals still need more juice out of the defensive line. Dexter Lawrence has raised the floor of the group, but Boye Mafe is the only other game-wrecking player in the room. Pierre may take some time, but like another Alabama edge rusher, Dallas Turner, could easily turn into one of the NFL’s top edge players. He has an elite first step, remarkable instincts to play the run, and scheme versatility. I think he’s more in the Turner mold, but Nik Bonitto comes to mind when I watch Pierre, too.

24. Indianapolis Colts (from PIT) | Dante Moore, QB, Oregon

Trade details: IND sends Nos. 38, 113, 188, and a 2028 2nd-round pick to PIT for No. 24.

The Colts have a quarterback problem, as it seems like the Daniel Jones experience is coming back to earth. Among full-time starters, Jones ranks third-worst in Total EPA. He’s in a bucket with Justin Herbert and Cam Ward, pretty clearly the worst two quarterbacks to start this year (you can make a case for Maliks Willis, if you want; I won’t argue). With that in mind, and the news that Moore won’t return this season, I think he’ll a) declare for the NFL Draft, and b) become a first-round pick. He might not be a top-three pick, as he would have been last year, but he still has all the traits that NFL teams look for. His evaluation may become similar to Ty Simpson’s once the NFL evaluators turn the 2025 film on. Unanswered questions about his ability to beat great defenses and how to separate his play from the problems in both the WR and OL rooms will make it challenging, but I still think an NFL team will like what they see enough to draft him in the first 32 picks. A new era in Indianapolis.

25. Detroit Lions | Kelley Jones, CB, Mississippi State

Outside of a rough game against Alabama, Jones has remained inside the CB2 battle for the entire season. Physical play, some excellent technique, and enough tenacity to battle any receiver make him one of the most intriguing cornerbacks in the class. I mentioned Azaraye’h Thomas earlier, and Jones’s film reminds me a lot of him when I turn on the tape. The Lions simply have to draft secondary this year, after their group has been one of the least exciting units in football for two straight years. They luck into a really great cornerback here.

26. Cleveland Browns | Boubacar Traore, EDGE, Notre Dame

While Traore didn’t enter the season as a potential first-rounder, he’s played up to that level through the first part of this year. His sack numbers won’t show, but he’s a pocket collapser with power, remarkable burst off the line of scrimmage, and strong hands. The Browns have been winning, despite poor play from their edge rushers, and if Jared Verse doesn’t get it together, they’re going to have a massive hole in their defense. The defensive tackle room has raised the group to outstanding levels, despite the problems, but the Browns do need to look for better players in the edge room.

27. Denver Broncos | Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa, LB, Notre Dame

I won’t even argue that Viliamu-Asa can’t make it to the LB1 spot ahead of Cole, despite the large gap in where they land on my board. While Cole is a traditional MIKE linebacker, Viliamu-Asa makes his living firing downhill on the boundaries. He’s incredibly versatile, with excellent coverage skills to match his explosive burst when firing in run fits. The Broncos need someone better to pair with Alex Singleton, and while they could definitely add a tight end here, they choose the linebacker route.

28. Chicago Bears | Kenyatta Jackson, EDGE, Ohio State

Big, powerful edge rushers are often Ryan Poles’s weakness, and the team does need more production out of that room as they emerge out of this season. Dennis Allen has the team performing well above expectations, and getting excellent pass rush out of their slot corner certainly helps the group be slightly above average. Still, when Dayo Odeyingbo and Austin Booker are giving the team the most production in the room, there’s definitely a need to improve. Jackson has taken a step forward in Year 5, but he still needs to develop better technique on counters to get in the backfield more regularly.

29. Buffalo Bills | Deuce Alexander, WR, Ole Miss

Speed, baby. The Bills haven’t had a wideout who can threaten the deep third the way Alexander can in a very long time, and he’s more than just a deep threat. He reminds me so much of Jameson Williams at Alabama, with underrated route running and change-of-direction that give him more upside than straight-line speed guys. Josh Allen has been able to make things work relatively well with a makeshift wide receiver room, but the team simply needs a different array of skill sets to stay dynamic and contend for AFC East titles.

30. San Francisco 49ers | Cayden Green, G, Missouri

Dominick Puni has been excellent at guard for the 49ers, as expected, but they still need some juice. Taking an Alijah Vera-Tucker-esque offensive lineman at the end of the first round could prove to be an excellent choice for a team that faces a new injury every 12 minutes. Green has inside-out versatility, though I still think he projects better on the interior. NFL scouts and draft evaluators are generally lower on Green, but I think his film at guard is among the best players in the class. That’s where I project him moving forward, though I think he can step in as a tackle with more success than others.

31. Kansas City Chiefs | Luke Reynolds, TE, Virginia Tech

This tight end class isn’t my favorite, but Reynolds remains my TE1, and the Chiefs need a little more out of their room than what Travis Kelce can give at this point. While the team has a few good rotational players behind him, they need a potential focal point, and that’s how I view Reynolds. He’s an all-around tight end with elite athleticism, an excellent catch radius, strong hands, and outstanding blocking technique. He’d be a perfect fit for an Andy Reid offense, and this could finally be the year the team invests heavily at the position.

32. Minnesota Vikings | Kade Pieper, C, Iowa

Pieper has played guard again this year, but he still projects as the best center prospect in the class. Size and length could be problematic, but Pieper has Creed Humphrey-like tendencies, and that fall down the board remains one of the greatest mysteries in recent draft memory. The Vikings likely won’t win the Super Bowl and pick here, but I think Pieper fits them too well for them to worry about where they’re picking when they take him.

Leave a comment

Christian Williams’ 2027 NFL Mock Draft 1.0