Dynasty Market Check: Who’s Overvalued and Undervalued in Startups?

Kevin looks at the latest dynasty ADP to identify which players are worth the price and which ones could sink your startup build.

We’re now smack in the middle of prime dynasty startup season—even with the NFL Draft just a few weeks away. Whether you’re jumping into your fifth league or building a brand-new squad from scratch, it’s crucial to keep your finger on the pulse of current dynasty startup ADP. Startups are happening every day, and values are shifting fast.

So it’s time for a quick market check. Using Dynasty Data Lab’s latest Superflex ADP (with 1.5 TE premium), I went through the board to identify two players per position that are being undervalued—and one player per position who is being overvalued at their current cost. On top of that, I’ll be including real recent trades for each player to help give some context on their current value across dynasty leagues. These are the picks that could win or lose your startup before you even finish the draft.

Let’s kick things off with the undervalued quarterbacks.

Undervalued Quarterbacks

J.J. McCarthy (ADP: QB16)

Let’s start with one of the most polarizing names in early dynasty startups: J.J. McCarthy.

There’s always a learning curve with rookie quarterbacks, but McCarthy is walking into one of the most stable and quarterback-friendly environments in the league. The Vikings spent the offseason making it crystal clear they’re building around him, choosing not to bring in a veteran to compete and instead focusing on protecting him and surrounding him with weapons. You don’t do that unless you fully expect him to be the guy—and sooner rather than later.

McCarthy’s skill set is still being debated in fantasy circles, but the tools are there. He’s got plenty of arm, he’s accurate on the move, and his athleticism adds a layer of fantasy upside that most are still sleeping on. He’s not a statue back there—he can move, extend plays, and pick up rushing yards. That matters in today’s fantasy game, and it’s a piece of his profile that’s still being underrated.

At Michigan, he didn’t need to carry the offense, and that’s what’s making some people hesitant. But that doesn't mean he can't. It just means he wasn't asked to. The Vikings don’t need him to come out and be prime Mahomes from day one—they just need him to execute, and in Kevin O’Connell’s system, that’s a very doable ask. It’s also worth noting that this offensive line made Sam Darnold look competent. That’s not nothing.

If you’re in a dynasty startup, locking in McCarthy at QB16 is a calculated upside swing. His floor may not be the safest, but his situation could elevate him into the top-10 conversation if things click early. Especially in Superflex leagues, that’s the kind of bet that can pay off big.

J.J. McCarthy Dynasty Value
Dynasty Trades (12-Team SF/TE Premium)

• J.J. McCarthy FOR Xavier Worthy

• J.J. McCarthy/2026 2nd FOR Kyler Murray/2026 4th

• J.J. McCarthy/Chris Olave FOR 1.01

• J.J. McCarthy FOR 1.08/3.08

• J.J. McCarthy FOR Chris Olave/2.01

• J.J. McCarthy/2027 1st FOR Jalen Coker/Jordan Love

• J.J. McCarthy FOR 1.05

• J.J. McCarthy FOR Trey Benson/1.05

• J.J. McCarthy FOR 1.07/2.01

• J.J. McCarthy/2026 1st FOR Drake Maye/2026 2nd

Dak Prescott (ADP: QB21)

If you’re in a startup and you want to win now—or just need a steady option for your QB2 spot—Dak Prescott needs to be on your radar.

Prescott is the classic case of being boring, productive, and consistently underrated. He’s currently going outside the top 20 quarterbacks in dynasty ADP, which makes zero sense considering his track record. Outside of his injury-shortened 2024 season, he’s been one of the most reliable fantasy producers at the position. People forget—just one year ago in 2023, he threw for over 4,500 yards and 36 touchdowns. He was in the MVP conversation and finished as the QB3 overall.

Yes, 2024 was rough. He was banged up, and the offense as a whole never found its rhythm. But let’s not pretend like the situation around him wasn’t flawed. The offensive line was shaky, the run game struggled, and the Cowboys lacked a consistent WR2 behind CeeDee Lamb. That said, Dak still holds every tool to be a productive QB1 especially if Dallas reloads with some help at wide receiver or running back in the draft.

There’s also the coaching change to consider. Brian Schottenheimer taking over adds a layer of familiarity and continuity for Prescott, and while it’s still uncertain how aggressive the offense will be, the pieces are in place for a bounce-back season. If he stays healthy, you’re looking at a plug-and-play top-12 QB who’s being drafted in the QB20 range. That’s wild value in Superflex formats.

Prescott may not be flashy, and his rushing upside has definitely tapered off in recent years, but in a format where stability and points matter, he’s exactly the kind of QB that can give your startup team a solid foundation while others swing for the fences and miss.

Dak Prescott Dynasty Value
Dynasty Trades (12-Team SF/TE Premium)

• Dak Prescott FOR Tucker Kraft/1.09

• Dak Prescott/Brandon Aiyuk FOR A.J. Brown

• Dak Prescott FOR Matthew Stafford/2026 1st

• Dak Prescott FOR Chris Olave

• Dak Prescott/2027 2nd FOR Michael Penix Jr.

• Dak Prescott FOR Jayden Reed/2.09

• Dak Prescott FOR 1.09

• Dak Prescott FOR 2026 1st

• Dak Prescott FOR Jaxson Dart/Colston Loveland

• Dak Prescott FOR 1.11

Undervalued Running Backs

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