Dynasty Reaction: George Pickens to the Dallas Cowboys
George Pickens is heading to the Dallas Cowboys for a third-round selection and a day-three pick swap. How will this affect dynasty fantasy football?
After a turbulent few years in Pittsburgh, George Pickens is headed to Dallas to serve as the No. 2 wide receiver to CeeDee Lamb. Pickens has been productive, averaging nearly 1,000 yards per season since his arrival in the NFL, and he’ll be the best No. 2 wideout Dak Prescott has had since 2019, when Michael Gallup caught 66 balls for 1,107 yards behind Amari Cooper’s outstanding performance as the team’s No. 1. Here’s how this trade alters fantasy football value.
Stock Up📈
George Pickens | ADP WR34
DK Metcalf’s arrival in Pittsburgh and the uncertain quarterback situation always dampened Pickens’ value this offseason. Still, many will look at his arrival in Dallas skeptically. Pickens served as the No. 1 wideout in Pittsburgh last season, giving him more first-read targets than he had previously experienced. The results were mixed, with inconsistent effort, poor quarterback play, and an archaic offensive scheme anchoring Pickens’ upside to the ground. With Prescott at the helm and his willingness to throw the ball into tight coverage, Pickens should excel in a secondary role. Effort questions remain, but his issues mostly stemmed from not getting the football enough. His 20% target share as the No. 1 in Pittsburgh is easily repeatable, even as the second-fiddle to Lamb. Jake Ferguson’s 17% share was second on the 2024 team, with Jalen Tolbert coming in at 15%. During his time in Seattle, Brian Schottenheimer called plays that resulted in 17%, 21%, 24%, and 23% target shares for the No. 2 wideout. It’s not challenging to envision even more targets for Pickens, and the increase in quality should immensely boost his ceiling.
CeeDee Lamb | ADP WR4
Lamb was productive in 2024; he eclipsed 100 catches despite missing time and ranked in the top ten in the league in target share. Still, the lack of actual NFL players in the wide receiver room forced him to play on the outside more often; his slot rate was down to 50.3% from 58.6% in 2023. Lamb’s best ability is his versatility, but he’s a killer out of the slot. As aforementioned, Schottenheimer filters targets through his top two wideouts. The No. 1 receiver received 19%, 24%, 25%, and 27% shares in Schottenheimer’s Seattle offenses, slightly down from Lamb’s last two years. Still, teams must pay attention to Pickens and Ferguson (to an extent), offering cleaner, higher-quality targets for Lamb. Lamb, serving as the only real wideout last year, carried the burden of generating most of the team’s explosives. That resulted in fewer short targets with after-catch opportunities, which Lamb excels at. With Pickens’ ability to threaten the defense vertically and on intermediate routes, Lamb should return to a three-level threat, with those short opportunities maximizing his efficiency. A return to 2023 Lamb may be in order.
Dak Prescott | ADP QB22
Without sounding redundant, the Dallas offense has improved drastically. A heavier lean into play-action passing is expected under Schottenheimer, and Prescott will now have two wideouts who can threaten the intermediates, an area he specializes in. While Dallas will attempt to run the football more frequently, they don’t currently have a stable of running backs that offers the ability to specialize in the run. Prescott should see a significant uptick in efficiency, even if the passing volume remains consistent.
Stock Down📉
The Pittsburgh Steelers…
The Steelers will undoubtedly add a free-agent wideout before the season kicks off. They may even add one as I write this. Still, the current assortment of skill position players is in bad shape. Metcalf serves as the team’s No. 1, but with just Pat Freiermuth and Calvin Austin Jr. as players who saw meaningful snaps in 2024 on the roster, defenses will key on the two threats: the run game and Metcalf. The team doesn’t currently employ an NFL starting quarterback, and without Pickens to bail out bad quarterback play as he did with Russell Wilson last year, it’s unlikely this offense has enough juice to compete. It’s not hard to argue that trading Pickens is addition by subtraction, with his antics creating distractions throughout the 2024 season. Even a veteran quarterback option won’t be able to salvage the offense. Someone like Jameis Winston or Ryan Tannehill makes a lot of sense for Arthur Smith’s offensive vision (yes, I think the Giants could move on from Winston before the season begins). Still, there’s very little to get excited about without legitimate weapons behind Metcalf and Freiermuth. It’s a similar problem to the 2024 iteration of the team, when the Steelers ranked 20th in points per game. That was their highest output since Ben Roethlisberger was the quarterback, and despite poor quarterback play, they’ve still managed to downgrade. Could Freiermuth see an uptick in targets? Sure, but the offense’s lack of scoring upside severely limits the ceiling of every Pittsburgh Steelers player for fantasy.
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