Dynasty Tier Cliffs: Where Value Disappears in Startup Drafts
Kevin goes through current dynasty ADP to find the current Tier Cliffs at each position!
Most dynasty managers spend startup season obsessing over ADP. Sharp dynasty managers spend startup season identifying tier breaks.
The goal isn’t necessarily drafting Player A over Player B. The goal is understanding when an entire tier of players is about to disappear. Once that happens, managers are often forced into a much less attractive player pool, paying similar prices for significantly less upside, security, or production.
This becomes especially important in dynasty startups where every round presents a series of decisions. Do you take the last quarterback in a tier? Do you secure an elite tight end before the position dries up? Is there enough depth at wide receiver to wait another round?
These decisions can shape the entire direction of a roster. Today, we’re conducting a full dynasty startup audit by position. We’ll examine quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end to identify where the most important tier cliffs exist, where managers should be aggressive, and where it’s safe to exercise patience.
Because in dynasty startups, championships are rarely won by perfectly following ADP. They’re won by recognizing when value is about to disappear before everyone else does.
Quarterbacks
Tier Cliff #1
The Elite Difference-Maker Tier
For me, this is where the true QB1 tier ends.
Josh Allen
Drake Maye
Jayden Daniels
Caleb Williams
Lamar Jackson
Joe Burrow
If I can land one of these quarterbacks in a startup, I feel great about my foundation. These are players who not only have QB1 overall upside, but also provide a weekly floor that few others can match.
Every one of these quarterbacks has shown the ability to carry fantasy teams for stretches of the season. Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, and Lamar Jackson bring elite rushing upside that can swing matchups on their own. Drake Maye and Joe Burrow may not rely on their legs as much, but both are capable of producing massive passing numbers with the supporting casts around them.
When I’m building a Superflex roster, this is the group I want to start with. Securing one of these quarterbacks gives you a player capable of producing top-five fantasy seasons while also providing long-term dynasty insulation.
Once this tier disappears, the position starts to look a lot different.
Tier Cliff #2
The Massive QB Middle Class
After the elite tier comes a massive group of quarterbacks that all have paths to QB1 seasons but carry more questions than the players above.
Jaxson Dart
Justin Herbert
Jalen Hurts
Patrick Mahomes
Trevor Lawrence
Bo Nix
Brock Purdy
Dak Prescott
This is where I think dynasty managers can gain an edge. The difference between these quarterbacks is often much smaller than the ADP suggests. While they may not offer the same combination of ceiling and stability as the elite tier, many of them can still produce QB1 seasons. Because of that, I am often comfortable waiting and attacking this tier if it allows me to build out the rest of my roster.
The name that will probably stand out in this tier is Jalen Hurts. I get it. Hurts has been one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in football over the last four seasons, especially when everything around him has been right. When he’s healthy, the offensive line is healthy, and the Eagles are playing their style of football, Hurts can absolutely give you elite fantasy production.
But this is where I’m separating elite upside from elite safety. Even with the Eagles adding a new playcaller and refreshing the receiving corps, there are still enough questions for me to keep Hurts out of that top tier. We saw in 2025 how quickly things changed when Lane Johnson went down, and Cam Jurgens missed time as well. Once the offensive line took hits, Hurts’ production dropped in a major way.
The Eagles do return all five starters up front, but they’re also another year older. The receiving corps looks different, but different doesn’t automatically mean better. Losing A.J. Brown is a major deal, and I’m not just going to assume this passing game improves because new names are in the building. Hurts can still win you weeks. He can still have spike games. He can still finish as a QB1. But when I’m looking at this from a dynasty startup perspective, I don’t view him with the same combination of long-term security, offensive stability, and week-to-week ceiling as the names in Tier 1. That’s why he lands in this massive middle-class tier for me instead of the elite difference-maker group.
Favorite Targets
Patrick Mahomes (3.06, QB10)
It feels strange to say this, but Patrick Mahomes has become underrated in dynasty circles. The fantasy production hasn’t been what managers expected over the last few seasons, but we’re still talking about one of the best quarterbacks in football. Before suffering a significant knee injury last season, Mahomes was averaging 25 fantasy points per game through eight weeks and was the QB1 overall.
The rushing production returned, the offense was more aggressive, and he looked much closer to the version of Mahomes that dominated fantasy football for years. If the recovery goes as planned, I think we get a motivated Mahomes at a discounted dynasty price. That’s a bet I’m willing to make.
Brock Purdy (4.01, QB13)
Purdy continues to be one of my favorite values in dynasty startups. The weapons around him have changed, but we’ve consistently seen him produce QB1 numbers whenever he’s healthy. Even while battling injuries last season, he still threw 20 touchdown passes and once again finished inside QB1 range in fantasy points per game. The market continues to treat him like a low-end QB1 despite years of production suggesting otherwise. At his current cost, I’m buying.
Dak Prescott (4.11, QB14)
Dak may be one of the safest quarterback investments in this range. He has one of the best receiving duos in football with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, and Dallas projects to be involved in plenty of high-scoring games. Prescott isn’t going to win with rushing production, but year after year he continues to put up passing volume and fantasy points. Sometimes dynasty managers overcomplicate things. Dak remains one of the most reliable fantasy quarterbacks in football.
Player I’m Staying Away From
Jaxson Dart (2.10, QB7)
This price is simply too aggressive for me. I like Dart as a prospect and I think he has legitimate fantasy upside because of his mobility. The rushing production alone gives him a path to fantasy relevance. The concern is cost. At QB7, you’re drafting him closer to proven elite assets than proven production. If Dart is your QB1 in a startup, I think you’re introducing a lot of risk into your roster build. There is certainly upside here, but I’d rather let someone else pay that price.
Tier Cliff #3
The Secure Starter Cliff
This is one of the most important tiers on the board.
Fernando Mendoza
Jordan Love
Cam Ward
Jared Goff
Baker Mayfield
Tyler Shough
C.J. Stroud
Kyler Murray
Sam Darnold
Matthew Stafford
Bryce Young
These quarterbacks may not have overall QB1 upside, but they provide something dynasty managers should value: stability. Most of these players have secure starting jobs, strong organizational support, and a reasonable path to multiple years of fantasy relevance.
Ideally, this is where I’m looking for my QB2 rather than my QB1. If I start my draft with one of the elite quarterbacks from Tier 1, I am more than comfortable waiting and selecting from this group later. C.J. Stroud stands out as one of my favorite targets. The market has cooled significantly after an inconsistent season, but he’s still a young franchise quarterback with long-term security. As a QB2, he makes a ton of sense. Jordan Love and Cam Ward are also players I’m comfortable targeting due to their combination of talent, job security, and upside.
Tier Cliff #4
The Unknowns
Malik Willis
Daniel Jones
Ty Simpson
Tua Tagovailoa
Michael Penix Jr.
Jacoby Brissett
Geno Smith
Shedeur Sanders
J.J. McCarthy
Drew Allar
Mac Jones
Anthony Richardson
Carson Beck
Deshaun Watson
Aaron Rodgers
This is where things start getting uncomfortable. Some of these players have talent. Some have upside. Some may even become valuable dynasty assets. The problem is uncertainty. Questions about starting jobs, long-term security, injuries, age, or overall development make this group difficult to trust. I’m much more interested in these quarterbacks as QB3s and QB4s rather than players I need to rely on every week. If I’m drafting from this tier, I’m chasing upside rather than stability. That’s fine later in startups, but it’s not where I want to build the foundation of my quarterback room.
Running Backs
Tier Cliff #1
The Elite Dynasty Running Backs
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