Introducing the TDR 2026 College Fantasy Football Projections
Kevin gives subscribers a first hand look at our new CFF projections on the TDR website.
For the first time, The Devy Royale is releasing our own college fantasy football projections. This is something we have wanted to build for a while because we believe there is still a need for a reliable place where college fantasy football and C2C can find projections they trust. Rankings are valuable, but they only tell part of the story. Projections give managers another way to evaluate players, compare roles, prepare for drafts, and make weekly lineup decisions once the season begins.
Our initial release will focus on the Power Four conferences and is designed to help managers across several different formats, including traditional CFF leagues, C2C leagues, weekly lineup formats, and best ball drafts.
The goal is not to create one perfect answer for every player. College football is too unpredictable for that. Depth charts change, coaching staffs rotate players, injuries happen, and roles can look completely different from one week to the next. Instead, we wanted to build a tool that gives managers a strong starting point based on projected opportunity, team context, market expectations, and a range of possible outcomes.
How the TDR CFF Projections Work
The TDR projections combine a returner usage model with a team-volume role engine and current market consensus. That means the model looks beyond a player’s raw production from the previous season. Returning statistics are important, but they do not always tell us what a player’s role will look like moving forward. A running back may have limited production because he was playing behind an established starter. A wide receiver may be stepping into an offense that lost most of its targets. A quarterback may be joining a new system with a much higher passing volume. A player’s previous stat line matters, but opportunity and team environment matter just as much. Our model attempts to account for those changes by evaluating expected usage within each offense. It then blends that information with market consensus to keep the projections connected to how the broader CFF and C2C communities are currently valuing players. Each player’s projection is simulated 20,000 times to create a range of potential outcomes. Instead of only presenting one final number, the projections help illustrate a player’s expected production, floor, and ceiling. That range is especially useful in college fantasy football, where weekly volatility can be much greater than it is in the NFL.
How CFF Managers Should Use the Projections
The projections should be treated as a resource, not a final answer. They are designed to help managers make more informed decisions by adding context to rankings, ADP, depth-chart reports, and personal player evaluations. In seasonal CFF drafts, the projections can help managers compare players at the same position and identify where projected production may not match the current market. If one player is being drafted several rounds ahead of another but carries a similar projection, that could reveal an opportunity to wait at the position. The same process can also help identify potential reaches. A player may have a recognizable name or plenty of offseason hype, but his projected role may not support his current draft cost.
In C2C leagues, the projections can help separate college production from long-term NFL value. Those are not always the same thing. Some players may be outstanding college fantasy options without carrying strong NFL profiles. Others may be highly valued devy assets who are not projected to be elite CFF producers during the upcoming season. Understanding that difference is one of the most important parts of building a successful C2C roster.
For best ball drafts, managers can use the floor and ceiling projections to build a more balanced portfolio. High-ceiling players are valuable because their spike weeks automatically enter the lineup, but a roster filled entirely with volatile options can still become difficult to manage. Combining reliable weekly producers with explosive players creates a more complete build. The projections can also become a valuable weekly resource during the season. Matchups, injuries, and changing roles will always matter, but having a baseline expectation for each player makes it easier to evaluate start-or-sit decisions.
What the Projections Can Help You Find
One of the most valuable parts of any projection set is identifying where the numbers differ from the market. That can include players being drafted too early, players being overlooked, and positional tiers that may not be as large as they initially appear. The projections can help managers answer questions such as:
Which quarterbacks are most likely to combine passing volume with rushing production?
Which running backs have the safest workloads?
Which receivers are positioned to lead their teams in targets?
Which tight ends have enough involvement to create a meaningful positional advantage?
Which players have the widest range between their projected floor and ceiling?
Those differences can shape draft strategy. A player with a strong median projection and a narrow range of outcomes may be safer in a weekly lineup league. A player with a lower floor but an elite ceiling may be more attractive in tournaments or best ball formats. There is no universal way to use projections. The most important thing is understanding how the information fits the format you are playing.
Our Top Projected Quarterback - Utah QB Devon Dampier
Devon Dampier enters the season as the highest-ranked quarterback in our Power Four projections, and it is not difficult to understand why. His combination of passing production, rushing volume, and proven experience gives him one of the strongest fantasy profiles in the country. Our model projects Dampier to average 221 passing yards, 1.79 passing touchdowns, 77.6 rushing yards, and 0.79 rushing touchdowns per game. That works out to 26.9 fantasy points per game, which is 10 percent higher than his current market expectation. His simulated outcomes also show the upside that comes with his dual-threat ability, with a weekly range stretching from a 12.4-point floor to a 45.7-point ceiling.
Dampier already showed what this offense can look like with him leading it. During his first season at Utah, he threw for 2,490 yards and 24 touchdowns while completing 63.5 percent of his passes. More importantly, he cut his interceptions down to five after turnovers had been one of the biggest concerns surrounding his game at New Mexico. He remained one of the most dangerous rushing quarterbacks in college football as well, adding 835 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. That rushing production gives him a weekly advantage that most quarterbacks simply cannot match. Even when the passing numbers are not there, he can still create a strong fantasy performance with his legs.
What makes his 2026 outlook even more interesting is that Dampier produced those numbers while dealing with a sports hernia and an ankle injury for much of last season. He has since undergone surgery, and Utah expects to have a healthier version of its starting quarterback this fall. If improved health allows him to become more consistent as a passer while maintaining his rushing workload, there is room for his production to climb. There will be some changes around him, including a new offensive coordinator, but the offense should continue to be built around what Dampier does best. He is comfortable creating outside the pocket, can throw accurately while moving, and consistently puts pressure on defenses as a runner.
His current ADP sits at 49.2, which makes him one of the more interesting values near the top of our projections. The market is clearly treating him as a strong CFF quarterback, but our model believes he still has room to outperform that price. Dampier offers exactly what fantasy managers should be looking for at the position: a secure starting role, an offense that runs through him, proven production, and elite rushing upside. That combination makes him our top projected Power Four quarterback for the 2026 season.
Our Top Projected Running Back: Kewan Lacy, Ole Miss
Kewan Lacy enters the season as the highest-ranked running back in our Power Four projections, and his place at the top is built around one of the strongest workload profiles in college football. Our model projects Lacy to average 21.9 rushing attempts, 108.1 rushing yards, 1.54 rushing touchdowns, 2.2 receptions, and 13.6 receiving yards per game. That works out to 23.6 fantasy points per game, which is 10 percent higher than his current market expectation. His simulated outcomes also give him a weekly range stretching from a 12.4-point floor to a 37.4-point ceiling.
Lacy is coming off a dominant first season at Ole Miss. After playing a limited role as a freshman at Missouri, he became the centerpiece of the Rebels’ offense and finished with 306 carries for 1,567 yards and 24 rushing touchdowns. He also contributed 29 receptions for 177 yards, showing he can stay involved beyond his work as a runner.
His ability to handle more than 300 carries while remaining productive is a major reason he leads our projections. Lacy can create tough yards between the tackles, but he also has enough burst to break into the second level and turn a well-blocked play into a much larger gain. He brings the type of combination CFF managers want from an early running back selection: volume, explosiveness, and a clear path to touchdowns.
There has been significant change at Ole Miss following Lane Kiffin’s departure, which naturally adds some uncertainty to the offense. Lacy’s decision to remain in Oxford was still a major win for the program, especially with quarterback Trinidad Chambliss also returning. The presence of a proven quarterback should prevent defenses from completely loading the box and give Lacy room to operate inside.
Ole Miss also added several running backs during the offseason, which could lead to a lighter workload than the 306 carries he handled last year. That does not necessarily have to be a negative. The added depth should allow the Rebels to keep Lacy fresher without removing him from his role as the clear centerpiece of the backfield. The larger concern would be losing short-yardage or goal-line opportunities, but our model still expects him to remain one of the most productive touchdown scorers in the country.
The one area that could push his ceiling even higher is the passing game. Lacy was involved as a receiver last season, but he was not heavily featured. A small increase in receptions would give him another way to produce when Ole Miss falls behind or faces a difficult defensive front. Unlike Devon Dampier, Lacy is not being overlooked by the market. His current ADP is 2.4, placing him firmly near the top of CFF drafts. You will have to spend a premium pick to acquire him, but our projections believe the price is justified. Lacy offers proven production, a secure role, touchdown upside, and the ability to handle one of the largest workloads in the Power Four. That combination makes him our top projected running back for the 2026 season.
Our Top Projected Wide Receiver: Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State
Jeremiah Smith enters the season as the highest-ranked wide receiver in our Power Four projections, and there is not much debate about why he sits at the top. Since arriving at Ohio State, he has been one of the most productive and dominant players in college football, regardless of position. Our model projects Smith to average 9.0 targets, 7.3 receptions, 101.8 receiving yards, and 1.04 receiving touchdowns per game. That works out to 23.9 fantasy points per game, which is 13 percent higher than his current market expectation. His simulated outcomes also give him a weekly range stretching from a 13.3-point floor to a 36.7-point ceiling.
Smith has already produced 2,558 receiving yards and 27 touchdowns through his first two college seasons. He now enters his junior year within reach of several major Ohio State career receiving records, which shows just how productive he has been in such a short period. His freshman season immediately established him as one of the top receivers in the country. Smith finished with 76 receptions for 1,315 yards and 15 touchdowns while helping Ohio State win a national championship. He did not need an extended adjustment period or a gradual increase in responsibility. From the moment he stepped onto the field, he looked capable of controlling games against the best defenses in college football.
What makes Smith such a safe projection is that his role is already established. Ohio State continues to recruit and develop talented receivers, but Smith is clearly the centerpiece of the passing game. He combines elite talent with the type of target volume we want from a premium CFF selection. At 9.0 projected targets per game, Smith should have enough opportunities to create a reliable weekly floor. His ability to produce downfield and win in the red zone raises the ceiling well beyond that baseline. He does not need 12 or 13 targets every week to deliver an elite fantasy performance because he can turn a limited number of opportunities into explosive plays and touchdowns. The biggest question is not whether Smith can produce. It is whether Ohio State’s quarterback play and offensive structure will allow him to reach the highest end of his range consistently. Even with changes around the offense, the Buckeyes have every reason to keep the passing game centered on their best player. Smith has already shown he can produce with different quarterbacks and alongside other future NFL receivers.
Unlike some players who lead our projections, Smith is not available at a discount. His current ADP is 1.2, placing him near the very top of CFF drafts. Managers are paying for a player expected to provide both weekly stability and overall WR1 upside. That price is expensive, but our projections still have him outperforming the market. Smith offers proven production, a secure target share, touchdown upside, and one of the highest weekly ceilings in the Power Four. That combination makes him our top projected wide receiver for the 2026 season.
Our Top Projected Tight End: Terrance Carter, Texas Tech
Terrance Carter comes in as the highest-ranked tight end in our Power Four projections, though this is probably the closest race of any position we have covered. There is not a huge gap separating the top tight ends, which makes Carter’s edge at the top even more interesting. Our model projects Carter to average 5.6 targets, 4.4 receptions, 52.0 receiving yards, and 0.44 receiving touchdowns per game. That works out to 12.4 fantasy points per game, which is 15 percent higher than his current market expectation. His simulated outcomes also show a weekly range stretching from a 7.8-point floor to a 17.7-point ceiling.
Carter heads to Texas Tech after a productive run at Louisiana, where he showed he could be more than just a traditional in-line tight end. He has already proven he can be a real factor in the passing game, and that is what makes him such an appealing fantasy option heading into this season. He brings a strong mix of size, athleticism, and versatility, which should fit nicely in a Texas Tech offense that has plenty of ways to create mismatches. That fit is a big reason he lands at the top of our projections. Texas Tech is expected to put up points, and Carter steps into an offense with an established quarterback in Behren Morton and multiple weapons on the outside. Defenses are not going to be able to key in on him every snap, which should create chances for him to work the middle of the field and find room underneath. If the Red Raiders use more two-tight-end looks, that should only help keep him involved consistently.
What stands out most with Carter is that he offers more than the typical touchdown-dependent tight end profile. He is not just someone you are hoping catches a short score near the goal line. Our projections see a player who can earn steady targets and chip in enough weekly volume to matter, which is important at a position that can get thin very quickly. At the same time, this is still a position where the margins are small. Carter may be our TE1, but tight end is much tighter than quarterback, running back, or wide receiver. That means managers should not treat him like he is in a tier completely by himself. The advantage is there, but it is a narrower one. His current ADP sits at 64.2, which puts him in a reasonable range for managers who want to secure one of the top tight ends without having to overpay too early. Our model believes he is still a value at that price. Carter offers receiving ability, a strong offensive environment, and a path to consistent involvement in one of the more exciting offenses in the Big 12. Even in a tightly packed tight end group, that is enough to make him our top projected tight end for the 2026 season.
This Is Only the Beginning
This is the first year we have created our own CFF projections, and we view this as the beginning of something we can continue building and improving. The college fantasy football community continues to grow. Managers are looking for reliable tools that can help them draft, evaluate their rosters, and make better decisions throughout the year. We want The Devy Royale to become one of those trusted resources. The free version of this article provides a look at how the projections were created, how managers can use them, and our top projected player at each position.
The complete TDR CFF projections include the full Power Four player pool, positional rankings, projected statistics, and floor and ceiling outcomes generated through 20,000 simulations.
You can access the full projections through our website, where you get access to every article, every tool, and every available resource. Whether you are preparing for a traditional CFF draft, building a C2C roster, entering a best ball tournament, or searching for an edge in your weekly league, these projections are designed to give you another trusted resource throughout the 2026 season.