Is George Pickens the Next A.J. Brown?

George Pickens turned in a boom-or-bust fantasy performance in 2023. Will the new offensive additions make Pickens the most valuable fantasy pick in drafts?

George Pickens torched the Cincinnati Bengals on a nationally televised game as families prepared for Christmas. He caught four of his six targets for 195 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 48.8 yards per reception. It was memorable, not just because the Steelers put it on the Bengals that night. But with Mason Rudolph under center, Pickens woke up. The truth? He was always awake, but his quarterback wasn't good enough. 32.7% of Pickens' yardage came in the four regular season games he played with the veteran quarterback, one of which he saw zero targets (more on that later). Strong quarterback play enhanced Pickens' ceiling; no matter who is under center in 2024, an upgrade has arrived. With Arthur Smith in town and two quarterbacks who thrive on play-action passing, an offensive attack closer to the Titans' 2019-20 offense may be on the horizon. Can George Pickens play the A.J. Brown role? Does the film suggest he has that type of upside? More importantly, to some, is he a viable fantasy football target?

2023 Stats

Pickens led the league in yards per reception in 2023. His big games down the stretch helped, but Pickens had stretches of impressive play early in the year, too. His two-game stretch of 11 catches for 237 yards and a touchdown made fantasy managers believe he turned the corner. He had just 248 yards over the next six weeks combined. Consistency was a problem; a ton of that was poor quarterback play. Even in the productive performances, throws like this were littered throughout.

Pickens turned in a 19.6% target share in 2023 despite playing alongside Diontae Johnson, the new Carolina Panthers No. 1 target. His 106 targets tied for 33rd in the league, and rookie Roman Wilson was the only significant addition to the receiving group.

Pickens turned in a boom-or-bust season, disappointing fantasy managers more than elating them, and his fantasy value suffered. He's currently leaving draft boards as the WR29. He's the WR25 on KeepTradeCut. And the burns must run deep for fantasy managers because the situation couldn't have improved any more than it did this offseason.

2024 QB Situation

The Steelers made significant changes to their quarterback room in the 2024 offseason. Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph are out, replaced by Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, and Kyle Allen. This new group brings a significant improvement statistically and on film. While Wilson and Fields have their limitations, they offer a more dynamic style of play. They are comfortable outside the pocket, can throw over the middle (a skill Pickett lacked), and have better accuracy when pushing the ball downfield. The latter is the most important for Pickens.

The deep ball is critical in every iteration of Arthur Smith's offense and George Pickens' success. Pickens posted the 10th-best PFF Receiving Grade on throws of 20+ yards in 2023 despite ranking 20th in targets and 45th in target percentage.

His quarterbacks couldn't consistently get him the ball in that area of the field, so they tried to utilize him in other ways. Sometimes it worked. There's film that suggests Pickens can be more than just a nine-route winner. But Matt Canada and company failed to utilize their best weapon to the best of his abilities. It wasn't just on deep balls, though—Pickett's bad throw percentage of 18.4% was among the worst in the NFL. He struggled to place the ball, mainly because the offense was condensed to the boundaries, and NFL defenses knew it.

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The New Offense

While fantasy managers love to joke about Arthur Smith's offense, his creativity in Tennessee justified his hiring in Atlanta. Smith builds off the run but utilizes a blitzkrieg play-action attack in the intermediate and deep areas of the field to generate explosives. It was challenging with Desmond Ridder, though the offense's primary base remained. Ridder ranked 15th in the NFL in yards on play-action passes and 14th in play-action attempts. Wilson and Fields ranked 20th and 22nd, respectively, in attempts, with Fields ranking 18th and Wilson 20th in yards.

Smith likes to live in the intermediates. His concepts rely on an effective play-action game, opening up space behind the linebackers for players to sneak in behind that defensive level. Corey Davis and A.J. Brown thrived here, winning digs and over routes and making Ryan Tannehill look fantastic.

However, A.J. Brown's breakout came when Smith began infusing quick-game more frequently. Brown feasted underneath, with most of his best film coming on in-breaking routes to his right from the left side of the formation.

The mixture of slants and intermediate attack, combined with the go-balls that Brown won on (and Pickens has succeeded on already), should be a staple in the Pittsburgh offense. The Steelers will still look to establish the run with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, but they turned in fewer pass attempts per game than Smith's Falcons in 2023. With better quarterback play and a vastly upgraded offensive line, fantasy managers should expect a higher passing rate in Pittsburgh.

The A.J. Brown Similarities

While this article examines Pickens' upside and will advocate for him as a value in fantasy football, he's not without some blame for his inconsistent year. He struggled immensely in contested catch situations. While some of those struggles can be explained by poor ball placement, Pickens often lacked physicality within his routes to generate better separation. He was frequently content with gliding through games, seemingly operating at half-speed throughout parts of the season.