Is Justin Fields the NFL's Next Successful Reclamation Project?

The Jets and their fanbase certainly hope so.

Outside of a flurry of Browns starting quarterbacks, it’s challenging to find a player more set up to fail more drastically than Justin Fields throughout his rookie contract. Plenty of factors contribute to that, including a rookie-year, pisspoor infrastructure that included Anthony Miller as the No. 3 wideout, one (1) good offensive lineman, and a hotseat head coach who would quickly find himself unemployed. From there, it was far too late to give Fields a sound ecosystem, and while general manager Ryan Poles tried hard to give the young quarterback a fair shot at becoming the franchise guy, the time it took to lay a foundation exceeded Fields’ life span in Chicago. A trade to Pittsburgh brought new hope for Fields, but Mike Tomlin’s affinity for an aging, over-the-hill Russell Wilson crushed it. After flashes of brilliance, conservative play-calling, and some glaring issues, Fields hit the bench never to return.

Of course, much of this would have been forgotten had Fields played with any semblance of consistency throughout his rookie deal. Stretches of play consistent with top-ten starters in the league were interrupted by injuries and atrocious performances. His elite play extension and rushing ability were often on display. His slow footwork and inconsistent field vision were just as prevalent.

Fields had offers from multiple teams this offseason, making him one of the more coveted free-agent quarterbacks on the market. He landed with the New York Jets on a prove-it deal, though $30M of the two-year, $40M is guaranteed. The deal structure gives the Jets flexibility to get out, should Fields fail to establish consistency. But they undoubtedly hope he does, earning a long-term deal, and fixing their long-time quarterback void.

But does Fields have the potential to have a Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield, or Sam Darnold-like rise as the NFL’s next successful reclamation project?

Where He Succeeds

Misdirection & Horizontal Motion

Fields is an excellent on-the-move thrower. He constantly resets his base and puts an accurate ball on his receivers. These throws were his bread and butter, and getting him into space traditionally creates confusion and panic for the defense, thanks to his elite scrambling ability. Misdirection often does two things: pulling defenders out of the picture entirely or directly into conflict, and shrinking the field for the quarterback. We’ll discuss Fields’s processing ability later, but both make him significantly more successful. Rollouts can turn to scrambles, which continuously put defenders on their heels. Rollouts can also turn into dimes like the one above while giving him limited opportunities to second-guess himself (a problem we’ll discuss shortly).

Moving the defense horizontally pre-snap creates more advantages for Fields. First, it gives him an extra step when he brings the ball back in the direction of the play. A shuffling defense starts from a stagnant position, with the disadvantage of needing to read the play before getting up to speed in the correct direction. Even when the edge rushers do their job to contain, Fields can make magic happen with the mismatch in personnel on the backside of a misdirection play call.

Fields is most comfortable in the uncomfortable; a clean pocket can make him jittery, and a moved pocket can make him lethal. Rolling him out from shotgun, spread looks is the best way to draw out his elite precision when throwing. It’s also the best way to generate explosives with his legs.

Deep Ball

Contrary to Arthur Smith’s beliefs, Fields is an excellent deep thrower. His 96.7 PFF Grade on deep throws ranked 4th in the NFL, and he threw them at the fifth-highest rate. Long-developing route concepts and dropbacks were largely successful, with just one turnover-worthy play on deep throws. His pre- and post-snap processing on those routes was impressive. Fields sometimes struggles to read linebackers, but his identification of safety rotation has always been tremendous. He’s never afraid to let it fly when he sees a single-high look, and he was the fifth-most accurate quarterback when factoring in adjustments for drops in that 2023 season.

Fields has a huge arm, and he’s remarkably accurate when throwing deep. This is also where he’s most likely to beat defenses over the middle of the field, as his ability to push the ball over linebackers and between safeties is one of his greatest strengths. The lack of a deep ball in the 2024 Pittsburgh offense before Russell Wilson’s arrival was perplexing, but the Jets could tap into one of Fields’s best talents.

Rushing Ability

While the 2024 season was a step back for Fields, even when extrapolating to a 17-game sample, the 2023 version of Fields put up more total yards than Aaron Rodgers did for New York in 2024. With quarterbacks like Fields, it’s critical to include rushing yards, and the best version of him should push the 1,000-yard threshold. Whether it’s scrambles or designed runs, Fields is one of the most dynamic weapons and most elite athletes on the football field on any given snap. Aaron Glenn’s interest in Fields undoubtedly stems from his time coaching against him when they were in Detroit and Chicago, respectively, and he got eviscerated by the athletic quarterback. Fields averaged 90 rushing yards per game against the Lions, with three 100+ yard games. Most of those came from scrambles; teams are aware of Fields’ elite ability, playing more zone coverage to keep eyes on him. Still, what the Steelers did with Fields in the run game should be thrown out entirely when analyzing what he brings to the table. He’s one of the three best running quarterbacks in the NFL, and it’d be shocking if the Jets didn’t take advantage of that.

The Reasons for Concern

Dear Readers,

We’re an independent site thriving thanks to the support of our valued members. By signing up for our Substack or Patreon, you’re directly contributing to keeping our business running. Subscribing to Patreon grants you access to Substack content and our exclusive material. Your support is crucial, and we sincerely appreciate your commitment.

Thank you for helping us continue our work.