Jordan Love’s Breakout Wasn’t a Fluke

The film suggests he can contend for the 2024 NFL MVP.

In the NFL, young players rarely reward patience and development. Coach and general manager job security—or lack thereof—often forces unready players onto the field. The Packers found success with the sit-and-wait method of quarterback development with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. Early in 2023, a repeat success story for the franchise looked bleak. From Weeks 3 through 8, Jordan Love threw five touchdowns and eight interceptions. He averaged 6.04 yards per attempt and 2.4 sacks per game. The Packers were 1-4 in those five games, and fans were rightfully concerned about the youngster’s trajectory.

And then it clicked. Love threw 26 touchdowns and five interceptions from that point on. He averaged 8.08 yards per attempt and dropped his sack total to 1.42 per game. He was a completely different player, not just in the hyperbolic cliche way, but fundamentally from the mental and physical aspects of playing quarterback.

Much of Love’s evolution came when the game slowed down. His early-season woes were filled with bad decisions stemming from slow and untrusting eyes, inconsistent pocket presence, and sped-up mechanics that made him inaccurate.

The Raiders, in particular, gave him fits in Week 5 with disguises and rotations. Love was guessing instead of knowing, a recipe for failure with an inexperienced quarterback.

Here, the read is pretty simple. With man coverage carrying the deep route, the middle of the field is wide open. Love tries to force the throw deep instead of taking the in-breaker. We’ll come back to in-breakers later.

The Raiders rotate into a Cover 3 match in the first clip, but the play action holds the linebackers for a split second. Love has Watson, but his uncertainty pushes him to the check-down. It wasn’t a negative play, but it could’ve been better.

In the second clip, Love’s lower-body mechanics indicate panic. Calmness would let him throw the wide-open sail route, but everything was moving too fast, and he turned down a significant gain.

Las Vegas performed well in coverage, and the pass rush was speeding him up, so Love’s struggles can’t all be placed on him (this is true with most bad quarterback play). Still, when the receivers and scheme generated separation, Love wouldn’t trust it. It’s easy to see when a young quarterback begins to panic, and indications of head-spins are prevalent throughout this film. Typically, the spinning doesn’t stop, and the ensuing spiral can cost a team wins.

The Raiders jammed up the middle of the field, and Love‘s late eyes took away the boundaries. Green Bay lost this game and scored one touchdown. But something clicked a month later in Week 9 against the Rams. It still wasn’t perfect, but Matt LaFleur and Love looked in sync for the first time… ever. LaFleur pulled out all the stops to simplify things for Love early in the game. He shrunk the field into half-field reads, incorporated play action, and ran the football with intentionality. Not that he wasn’t doing this before Week 9, but Love finally looked mostly comfortable, which gave LaFleur the green light to open up more of his bag. He spread things out as the game progressed, and Love’s eyes were speeding up.

But it wasn’t perfect. Love struggled to evade pressure, taking three sacks and posting a season-high 42.9% pressure-to-sack rate. He didn’t post a P2S% higher than 25% for the rest of the season. A few weeks later, the Thanksgiving Day matchup against the Lions was his coming-out party.

Love mastered the offense’s quick game, exploiting the Lions’ uneven cornerback play and getting layups. The touchdown throw was more of a scoop-from-behind-the-backboard layup, but it’s a stark example of Love’s trust in his eyes.

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