Makai Lemon: WR1... but the Landing Spot Matters
The USC star was dominant in 2025, and I charted his film... it matches the stats.
The 2026 NFL Draft has very few early entrants, a new phenomenon driven by the rise in NIL dollars flowing through college football. While that could impact the class’s depth and NFL teams’ ability to snag gems on days two and three of the draft, it makes the underclassmen who declare stand out more significantly; they wouldn’t be declaring if they didn’t receive positive grades from NFL evaluators. That’s the case with Makai Lemon, the star USC wideout who dominated college football in 2025. I introduced my new Weighted Accuracy & Precision charting for the 2026 NFL Draft (and 2027 NFL Draft… thanks, Dante Moore!) quarterbacks over the last few weeks. This examination of Lemon will introduce my wideout charting and explain why I have him as my WR1 (and why a few factors on his film still concern me).
How He Wins
Lemon’s path to success is almost identical to one of the NFL’s leading receivers in 2025 (I’ll let you guess who I’m talking about and tell you at the end!). Lemon is a savvy, explosive, creative player with a ton of upside to dominate once he’s in an offense that properly utilizes him. First, he’s arguably the best contested catch wide receiver in the class, despite standing at just 5’11 and 195 pounds. Fearless is a term thrown around too often for wideouts who play big across the middle of the field, but it’s the perfect adjective for Lemon. He consistently shows strong hands in traffic, even when he knows a big hit is coming his way. He almost never flashes T-Rex arms with defenders bearing down on him, and he has some of the surest hands in the class — he had just four drops in his college career. His work as a contested-catch receiver extends past the middle of the field, though, as he bails himself out when he can’t shake a defender. He tracks the football well, flashes late hands, and consistently comes down with catches like a big-bodied wideout downfield, often in acrobatic ways.
While Lemon’s contested ability shines, his route running is nearly as bright. He regularly gets open against any coverage, though his work against man coverage is remarkable. Lemon’s ability to throttle up or down when working his stem consistently keeps cornerbacks off balance. He’s shifty, and he understands how to read the leverage of the defensive back and use that to his advantage. His explosiveness and ability to push the defense vertical keeps corners guessing; he breaks his routes off rapidly, and typically generates a comfortable amount of cushion. Many have deemed him a slot-only player, and he certainly won’t be an X lining up against press coverage at the NFL level (more on that later), but he consistently wins from outside alignments, as well.
Maybe the most impressive part of his game is his ability to create yards after the catch. The explosiveness and shiftiness that allow him to win as a route-runner also shine when he has the ball in his hands. His YAC/reception number came down in 2025 to be more in line with the national average, but that’s because his role changed, and the team didn’t use him on underneath stuff as frequently as they did in 2024. With the ball in his hands, he operates like a running back, consistently finding angles to bounce off tackles or avoid them altogether. He’s hard to bring down, and he’ll find ways to create yards at the NFL level.
Lastly, his willingness to block, combined with his effectiveness as a blocker, despite his “smaller” stature, is immaculate. It’s the thing that separates good receivers from great ones, and it keeps players on the field in critical situations. I charted blocking win rate in the games I watched, so more on this later.
Kevin and I broke down Lemon’s scouting report a couple of weeks ago, but I hadn’t yet charted him when we recorded. Check it out if you want Kevin’s take on Lemon, as well!
