Mock Draft Monday: 12 Team SF/TE Premium Dynasty Startup ADP
Every monday the TDR team will be dropping a Mock Draft this off-season!
Every Monday.
All season long.
Different angles. Different formats. Real strategy.
Each week, we’ll rotate the focus so you’re not just seeing another mock, you’re seeing how to think through the board.
What to expect:
Dynasty startups
Devy + rookie mocks
C2C / CFF hybrids
Strategy-driven builds (contender vs rebuild)
Market vs value vs leverage mocks
Real NFL Mock Drafts
Position Mocks
Real Startup Drafts
If you want a consistent edge during the season, Mock Draft Mondays is where it starts.
For this Mock Draft Monday, we’re starting with the foundation, the market itself.
Instead of running a live mock, this exercise looks at 20 rounds of dynasty startup ADP in a 12-team Superflex, TE Premium format. No draft rooms. No personalities. Just how the player pool is currently being priced across the market as we head into the heart of the offseason.
That distinction matters.
ADP isn’t about team builds or creativity; it’s about consensus. It shows us where managers feel safe, where they’re chasing upside, and where fear, age curves, and uncertainty are already being baked into player prices. More importantly, it reveals where value is quietly leaking. This isn’t about drafting a “perfect” roster.
It’s about identifying where the market is early, where it’s stubborn, and where it’s flat-out wrong across the first 20 rounds.
Below, I’ll break down the key takeaways from ADP snapshots, highlighting pressure points, mispriced profiles, and early offseason leverage before those values inevitably shift.
*ADP Data Taken from Dynasty Data Lab! One of the best free resources out there!
Rounds 1-4 Takeaways
Rookie Pick ADP
1.01 rookie pick → 2.07 overall
1.02 rookie pick → 3.12 overall
1.03 rookie pick → 4.09 overall
Takeaway #1: Drake Maye Is Being Priced Like a Konami QB and He’s Not One
Drake Maye going as QB2 overall in dynasty ADP is a step too far. We just watched him get overwhelmed on the biggest stage, and while that alone shouldn’t define his long-term outlook, it does reinforce the core issue here: Maye isn’t a dual-threat quarterback. He wins with arm talent, structure, and processing, not with designed rushing volume or weekly rushing equity.
In Superflex formats, especially at the very top of startup boards, that distinction matters. When you’re paying elite QB prices, you’re often paying for insulation and weekly ceiling. That’s why players like Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson belong in this tier, their Konami ability creates fantasy points even when things aren’t clean through the air.
Maye can absolutely be a long-term NFL success. But as a dynasty asset, he lacks the rushing floor that keeps quarterbacks insulated from weekly volatility. Pricing him ahead of elite rushing profiles assumes perfection, and that’s not how dynasty markets usually reward non-Konami QBs.
Takeaway #2: The Running Back Market Is Quietly (and Aggressively) Rising
This snapshot represents the highest I’ve seen Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs valued in dynasty ADP since they entered the league, and that’s telling. After multiple years of RB erosion, the market is finally recalibrating around elite talent, age, and insulation at the position.
What’s even more interesting is how the rookie class is being pulled into that revaluation. Jeremiyah Love is effectively being priced as the assumed 1.01 rookie pick and slotted as RB4 overall in dynasty. That’s a massive leap of faith and a strong signal that managers are once again willing to bet on immediate RB impact over long-term WR patience.
This doesn’t mean the market is wrong, but it does mean the pendulum is swinging back. Elite, young running backs with three-down profiles are being treated as premium assets again, and that shift matters when you’re deciding whether to lock in production or chase theoretical longevity elsewhere.
Takeaway #3: Malik Nabers’ Price Ignores the Injury Reality, and That’s an Opportunity
Malik Nabers continues to be drafted near the top of dynasty boards, but his current ADP completely ignores the reality of his injury and recovery timeline.
Nabers suffered an ACL tear late in September and also underwent a full meniscus repair in October. That matters. A clean ACL rehab can sometimes push toward a 10–11 month return if everything goes perfectly but adding a full meniscus repair often slows down range-of-motion work and limits early rehab progress. That explains the brace and crutches we saw as recently as last month.
There’s no official timetable, and Nabers himself has been clear that he won’t rush back until his body feels right. That strongly suggests a slow ramp-up, and there’s a very real chance he either misses early games or isn’t fully himself to start the season.
Drafting him at peak value now assumes health, timing, and immediate production, all things that are uncertain. The sharper move may be patience: let someone else absorb the early-season uncertainty, then buy Nabers once the slow start inevitably tests market confidence. I’d rather draft a healthy elite asset now and circle back when Nabers’ price reflects the reality of recovery instead of the ceiling outcome.
