NFL Week 1 Starts, Sits, & Best Bets

Christian Williams examines the NFL Week 1 slate to determine who to start and sit in fantasy football.

You’ve completed your drafts. You feel great! But most fantasy championships aren’t won at the draft. Start/sit decisions loom large, though Week 1 brings less uncertainty than others. Here are starts, sits, and best bets for your weekend fantasy lineups and betting tickets.

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Starts

Caleb Williams (QB - CHI) vs. TEN | QB14

Williams’s home debut comes against the Tennessee Titans, who improved their secondary drastically this offseason. Starting rookie quarterbacks in the first week of the fantasy season is nerve-wracking, but Williams and the Bears should hit the ground running. DraftKings favors them by 3.5 points, and they have the seventh-highest implied point total of the week at 45. Williams should hit the ground running, and I anticipate he’ll eclipse his 239.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdown lines. The Titans ranked 23rd against opposing quarterbacks in 2023, though their improved secondary is more of a test for Williams. Still, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze have favorable matchups, and the Chicago passing offense shouldn’t struggle to score points. Williams sits just outside the top 12 in consensus rankings but has a top-eight upside this week.

Aaron Jones (RB - MIN) at NYG | RB19

Expert consensus suggests Jones is a low-end RB2 in Week 1, but fewer matchups excite me like one against the Giants, especially with Sam Darnold quarterbacking the offense. The Giants were 8th against opposing running backs in 2023 and did little to fix that problem this offseason. The Vikings are favored by 1.5 points in this matchup, and the implied point total is low, but Jones should see nearly double-digit targets as Darnold’s secondary option. With Brian Burns likely getting more pressure on opposing quarterbacks, check-down options should feast against the Giants. Jones should be the primary back in obvious passing situations, even if he splits time with Ty Chandler. I’m hitting the over on Jones’s reception line, receiving yards line, and rushing + receiving yards line. I’m starting him over every running back not named Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, and Travis Etienne this week.

Chris Godwin (WR - TB) vs. WAS | WR29

The Buccaneers' control of this game from start to finish likely contributes to the expert consensus ranking of WR29, but Godwin should be in starting lineups this week. The Commanders were the second-best matchup for opposing wideouts last season, and rookie Mike Sainristil draws the primary matchup against Godwin this week. While Sainristil is an upgrade at the position for Washington, drawing a wideout like Godwin, whose team has repeatedly raved about and expressed how involved he will be, is unfortunate. Godwin has top-12 upside in Week 1, and he should be a set-it-and-forget-it option without much internal debate. I have Godwin projected for 5.1 receptions per game, but with this matchup, I’m hitting the over on both his receptions and receiving yards here.

Colby Parkinson (TE - LAR) at DET | TE25

I’ll stop writing about Colby Parkinson if he flops, but for now, I’m plugging him into my fantasy lineup if I passed on the tight end position in drafts. The Lions were the 10th-best matchup against opposing tight ends in 2023, and Alex Anzalone and Jack Campbell will be the primary coverage defenders on Parkinson this week. I have Parkinson averaging three catches for 40 yards throughout 2024, but a boost to both wouldn’t shock me in a favorable matchup against Detroit.

Sits

Dak Prescott (QB - DAL) at CLV | QB15

Expert consensus agrees here, but the Cleveland Browns defense should hit the ground running at home this weekend. With more uncertainty along the Dallas offensive line, Myles Garrett looming, and one of the best secondaries in football, it’s easier to sit Prescott than to start him and hope he’ll overcome those factors.

Najee Harris (RB - PIT) at ATL | RB24

Reports suggest Jaylen Warren will play this weekend, and the Falcons have a stout run defense. While the Steelers will undoubtedly attempt to run the ball, I don’t anticipate many scoring opportunities for Harris. With Warren healthy, I favor him in this matchup, as he'll likely be the source of big plays for the offense outside of George Pickens. Consensus agrees, but I’d play Jerome Ford, D’Andre Swift, and others ranked below Harris this week.

Rashee Rice (WR - KC) vs. BLT | WR23

While Rice should have a great season, I’m not overly excited about his opening-night matchup. The Ravens had one of the best defenses against wideouts last year, with opposing teams scoring just 25.1 fantasy points against them, and their defense should improve in 2024. While Andy Reid put a damper on Xavier Worthy managers’ dreams, I anticipate he’ll significantly factor into the offensive game plan. With better options, I’d prefer to sit Rice this week.

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Best Bets