NFL Week 3 Starts, Sits, Picks, & Best Bets

Christian Williams examines the NFL Week 3 slate to determine who to start and sit in fantasy football and the best bets to make this weekend.

Week 2 was a doozy. Underdogs feasted, with multiple six-or-more-point underdogs winning outright, turning predictions on their heels. The Saints displayed the same offensive prowess against the Cowboys that they did in Week 1 against the Panthers. They look legitimate (more on that later). The Buccaneers were always the strongest team left for dead in preseason predictions, but coming out of Detroit with a win wasn’t a pick many made, especially when battling a banged-up secondary. The Raiders found some offensive success and continued displaying a formidable defense en route to an unlikely victory in Baltimore. The “any given Sunday” phrase couldn’t have been personified more clearly than in Week 2, and this week offers more upside for upsets.

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Starts

The Starts section of these previews aims to highlight players ranked outside the top-12 QBs and TEs and top-24 RBs and WRs who have favorable matchups and could exceed expectations. Please start players responsibly! If you have questions about start/sit decisions, join us on Discord.

Derek Carr (QB - NO) vs. PHI

ECR Ranking: QB14

Carr leads the league in yards per attempt… by more than an entire yard. Much of his success has come via the deep ball, with Rashid Shaheed beating teams deep. The Eagles are sixth in the league in single-high pre-snap looks and cover 3 %, a move away from normal Vic Fangio defenses. Against single-high pre-snap looks, Carr is 12/17 for 273 yards, three touchdowns, and his lone interception. The recipe is there for the Saints and offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak to continue their downfield success. Carr enters this week as the QB2 overall, and he should be in starting lineups with this favorable matchup in Week 3.

Zamir White (RB - LV) vs. CAR

ECR Ranking: RB27

The early returns are enough to hesitate, but White’s Week 3 matchup is too enticing to keep him out of your flex spot on Sunday. The Panthers are allowing 199.5 rushing yards per game through two weeks. They’re also giving up the second-most attempts per game at 40.5. The move to Andy Dalton should give the Panthers’ offense more life, but the Raiders should still control the clock and establish an efficient run game. White has disappointed immensely, but a trip to the end zone, some forced missed tackles (he ranks 24th in missed tackles forced per touch), and a few more dump-offs and White has a path to a top-12 finish in Week 3.

Alec Pierce (WR - IND) vs. CHI

ECR Ranking: WR59

Pierce has been a pleasant surprise through two games, entering this game as the WR5 and a high share of first-read targets (20% of the Colts’ passing plays). With Josh Downs’ return, it’s easy to be weary about Pierce’s success continuing. Still, while among the league’s best defenses, the Bears are susceptible to allowing big plays. With Montez Sweat banged up with an elbow injury, Anthony Richardson should have time to deliver Pierce the football (or the defense, but I’ll get to that later). Pierce is Richardson’s favorite goal-line target, too, and this game should have more points than many anticipate. Pierce is likelier to be a 12-point scorer rather than a top-12 finisher, but he’s still a good flex play despite Downs’ return.

Cole Kmet (TE - CHI) at IND

ECR Ranking: TE17

Staying with the same game, the Chicago passing game was slightly broken last week, but Kmet is a solid flier. Jumping on a tight-end committee may be a mistake, but five of Kmet’s six season targets came in the second half of Week 2, indicating his involvement could be increasing as the Bears search for solutions. He was schemed the first touch out of halftime, and Caleb Williams seems to be leaning on him as a safety blanket when pockets get muddy (so, every snap!). Betting on the Bears to score a touchdown feels misguided, but I believe Kmet will do that this week and finish inside the top 12.

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Sits

The Sits section of these previews aims to highlight players ranked inside the top-12 QBs and TEs, as well as top-24 RBs and WRs who have challenging matchups and could fail to meet expectations. Please sit players responsibly! If you have questions about start/sit decisions, join us on Discord.

Anthony Richardson (QB - IND) vs. CHI

ECR Ranking: QB9

While I’m willing to start Alec Pierce for the benefit of broken, big plays, Richardson is a hard avoid this week. The Bears are allowing just 11.5 fantasy points to quarterbacks, and the turnover creation is prevalent. With Richardson’s turnover-proneness and the most formidable defense he’s faced yet, I anticipate a lower QB2 finish. I’d pivot in most situations if I had a better play on my team.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB - NE) at NYJ

ECR Ranking: RB13

The 49ers ran all over the Jets in Week 1, but their defense returned to the center against the Titans in Week 2. Stevenson has been efficient enough on the ground, but touchdowns have comprised 35.7% of his fantasy points. If Stevenson doesn’t find the end zone - and I don’t think he will this week - all the opportunities in the world may not make him a viable high-end RB2. You are probably inserting him into your lineup with the current running back landscape. But if your team’s strength lies in that position, it may be wise to view Stevenson as an RB3 and pivot to a wide receiver in the flex spot.

Jaylen Waddle (WR - MIA) at SEA

ECR Ranking: WR24

In the three-game sample of Skylar Thompson playing quarterback for Waddle, the wideout averages fewer than four receptions 40 yards per game. Based primarily on last year’s data, the matchup is favorable on paper! That is until you realize the Seahawks are tied for the second-best passing defense in the league through the first two weeks by allowing just 128.5 yards per game. Thompson can’t support two wideouts, even if he’s taken steps forward since his last time starting, and Waddle is likely the one who gets left out.

Dalton Kincaid (TE - BUF) vs. JAX

ECR Ranking: TE6

Kincaid simply isn’t getting opportunities. He’s the first read on just 20.8% of the Bills’ passing plays, and he isn’t winning a large share of his routes, even when he is. It’s been a struggle to start 2024, and the Jaguars are allowing the fourth-least points to opposing tight ends through two weeks. Jacksonville is a heavy man-coverage team, and Kincaid is struggling versus man. He’s 26th in Separation Score and 24th in yards per route run behind guys like Luke Schoonmaker and Jordan Akins. It hasn’t been pretty, and there will be a correction at some point. Unfortunately, nothing lines up for that to happen this week, and I’d consider pivoting to avoid the dud.

Picks

After Week 1, my picks against the spread were 9-7. After Week 2, we’re at 18-14. Here are my picks for this weekend’s games.

New England Patriots (+6) at New York Jets

Chicago Bears (+1.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) at Tennessee Titans*

*Keep an eye on this line, as Jordan Love’s availability will significantly move it in Green Bay’s direction.

Houston Texans (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5)

New York Giants (+6.5) at Cleveland Browns

Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) at New Orleans Saints

Carolina Panthers (+5.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5)

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (+1)

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (+3)

San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Los Angeles Rams

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-5)

Washington Commanders (+7) at Cincinnati Bengals

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Best Bets

Please bet responsibly!

Through two weeks, my best bets are 5-3, though we were cruising toward the Bills-Dolphins over bet before Tua Tagovailoa’s injury. Alas, we move forward.