NFL Week 4 Starts, Sits, Picks, & Best Bets

Christian Williams examines the NFL Week 4 slate to determine who to start and sit in fantasy football and the best bets to make this weekend.

NFL Week 3 was less volatile than Week 2, but underdogs are still finding success every week. We were both dazzled and perplexed by rookie quarterback play, and NFL offenses found their groove more than they had in the previous two weeks. With some fun matchups on the docket in Week 4, here’s everything you need to know.

Starts

Caleb Williams (QB - CHI) vs. LAR

ECR Ranking: QB18

Keenan Allen is back at practice. The Bears don’t know how to run the football. Williams is coming off a 19.3-point performance that landed him just outside the top 12 in Week 3 and one where a bad drop from Rome Odunze cost him an interception. But perhaps most importantly, the game is slowing down for the rookie quarterback. The stats show a turnover-prone signal caller, but the film shows a quarterback elevating his teammates. The Rams allow the fourth-most passing yards per game and currently rank as the second-worst scoring defense, ahead of only the Panthers. Williams will put everything together, clean up the turnovers, and score some fantasy points very soon. I anticipate that this is the week.

Tank Bigsby (RB - JAX) at HOU

ECR Ranking: RB50

Bigsby’s limited participation in practice this week makes him worth monitoring, but the Jaguars desperately need answers on offense, and the second-year running back is arguably their best player right now. Bigsby ranks third in yards after contact per attempt, seventh in PFF rushing grade, second in breakaway percentage, and first in elusive rating. He’s been one of the best backs in football, albeit on limited opportunities. The nature of the game script kept him off the field against the Bills on Monday, but I anticipate this divisional matchup staying within reach for longer. Bigsby is as risky a play as I’ve suggested, but talent tends to earn opportunities, and there isn’t a single NFL team more desperate for an infusion of talent on offense than the Jaguars. I think Bigsby will find the end zone this week and earn more snaps moving forward, and I’d start him in my flex spot over many wideouts this week.

Khalil Shakir (WR - BUF) at BAL

ECR Ranking: WR35

Shakir has 14 targets in 2024. He also has 14 receptions. I think that’s pretty good efficiency! The Ravens are allowing the fifth-most points to opposing wideouts, and Shakir is the No. 1, even if Josh Allen is distributing the football more evenly this year. Simply put, Allen is unequivocally at the top of his game and indisputably the best player in the NFL right now, and the Ravens don’t have enough firepower on defense to slow him down. Shakir is a good play every week, but I expect the Bills to intentionally involve him in the script, contributing to a big performance.

Tyler Conklin (TE - NYJ) vs. DEN

ECR Ranking: TE17

This may feel like chasing points, but it’s challenging to find a tight end playing as many snaps as Conklin. Conklin’s 91% snap share leads all tight ends, resulting in fantasy points in Week 3. Denver is the 11th-best matchup for opposing tight ends through three weeks and has done a great job against opposing wideouts (the worst matchup for fantasy purposes). With Pat Surtain giving Garrett Wilson his toughest test, Conklin should find success in the passing attack.

Sits

Jared Goff (QB - DET) vs. SEA

ECR Ranking: QB11

To this point, the Seahawks’ light quarterback schedule has skewed the perception of their defense, but Goff hasn’t been very successful this year. Goff ranks 30th in PFF passing grade, has put the ball into harm’s way, and hasn’t looked very sharp yet. Signs that he’s returning to form appeared in Week 3, but Seattle’s defense is still good despite matchups against Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, and Skylar Thompson. I expect a lower-scoring game than many, and Goff is a player I’d rather sit down this week if I had a more reliable option.

Josh Jacobs (RB - GB) vs. MIN

ECR Ranking: RB16

The Vikings have evolved into a defense that causes pause on every position group, but their success against running backs has helped propel them into one of the league’s best overall. Jacobs wasn’t productive for fantasy in Week 3 but still didn’t play poorly. More concerning is Emanuel Wilson’s large snap share and efficiency. Wilson was the product of a favorable game script, and I don’t anticipate that will return in Week 4. Still, Jacobs and the Packers’ run game may struggle, especially if Malik Willis is under center for one more week.

*Also, sit D’Andre Swift! The market is already on this, so it’s beating a dead horse, but Roschon Johnson figures to be the lead back for the Bears this weekend.

Tyreek Hill (WR - MIA) vs. TEN

ECR Ranking: WR23

The market is mostly on this, especially compared with Hill’s expectations when he has a real quarterback. Still, expecting much more than flex-worthy performances from Hill while Tua Tagovailoa is out is a misguided stance. The Miami passing attack will be a last resort for Mike McDaniel, and they’ll need a strong game plan in the run game to have a chance in this game. If you want to play Hill in your flex, that’s probably fine, but don’t be shocked if he finishes outside the top 24 this week.

Mark Andrews (TE - BAL) vs. BUF

ECR Ranking: TE8

Andrews isn’t running routes. In fact, he played on just seven pass plays in Week 3, his lowest since 2019 against… the Buffalo Bills. There will be a correction, especially with the offense’s stalls in the second half of Week 3. Still, it’s not worth it to throw Andrews in your lineup and pray the correction is here. It’s a sit-him-down-and-see-it situation, and there are plenty of better plays this week.

Picks

Through three weeks, my picks against the spread are 27-21. Here are my picks for this weekend.

Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) at New York Giants

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) at Carolina Panthers

Denver Broncos (+7.5) at New York Jets

Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) at Green Bay Packers

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (-3)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-6.5)

New Orleans Saints (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New England Patriots (+10) at San Francisco 49ers

Washington Commanders (+3.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (+8)

Cleveland Browns (+1) at Las Vegas Raiders

Buffalo Bills (+2.5) at Baltimore Ravens

Tennessee Titans (+1) at Miami Dolphins

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-3.5)

Best Bets

The best bets are 7-5 this season! Here are my favorite ones this weekend.