Portal Watch: Winners, Losers, and Devy Value Shifts
Breaking down recent transfer portal entrants and how opportunity, scheme, and timeline shifts impact devy value.
As of December 21, 2026, the transfer portal continues to reshape the devy landscape in real time. In this piece, we’re taking a layered look at players who have entered the portal, including those who have already found a new home and those still waiting to commit. The portal doesn’t “officially” open until January 2nd, but we thought we would give it an early preview.
For each player, the goal is simple: evaluate whether the portal move itself makes sense, what the landing spot looks like (if there is one), and how the situation impacts their current devy value. Some moves create immediate opportunity and clarity. Others add risk, delay evaluation windows, or cap upside.
Rather than reacting to headlines, this breakdown focuses on context, path to production, and long-term NFL projection, helping devy managers decide when to buy, hold, or move on as the portal cycle unfolds.
Quarterbacks
Quarterback is where the most devy value movement is happening right now and it’s not close. This is the deepest position group currently available in the portal, with multiple players who can materially shift their devy outlook based on landing spot alone. With more quarterbacks still expected to enter, this group will continue to evolve, and it’s where managers need to be the most proactive rather than reactive.
Sam Leavitt | RS-SO | 6’2”, 195
Last Team: Arizona State
New Team: NA
Leavitt’s rise was a major part of Arizona State’s resurgence, helping push the program into national relevance and a College Football Playoff conversation. In his breakout 2024 season, he completed 61.7% of his passes for 2,885 yards and 24 touchdowns while throwing just six interceptions, adding over 500 rushing yards and five scores on the ground. That production earned him Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year and All-Big 12 Second Team honors.
From a pure college perspective, Leavitt was one of the best quarterbacks in the conference when healthy. He posted an 88.5 PFF grade in 2024, trailing only Shedeur Sanders among Big 12 QBs and his efficiency under pressure stood out. Across 2024 and 2025, Leavitt ranked in the top five in the conference in PFF passing grade under pressure, with a pressure-to-sack rate that bordered on elite. He’s decisive, willing to stand in, and can make throws when the structure breaks down.
The tools are there. Leavitt led the Big 12 in big-time throw rate in 2025 (6.9%), protects the football at a high level (turnover-worthy play rate just over 1% in 2024), and adds value as a runner. Even in an injury-shortened 2025 season, he averaged over seven yards per carry and remained efficient before a season-ending foot injury in Week 9. In seven games, he completed 60.7% of his passes for 1,628 yards with a 10-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio.
That said, this is where the devy conversation diverges from the college evaluation.
I’ve consistently been out on Leavitt as an NFL projection, and nothing from 2025 changed that stance. He’s a high-level college quarterback who thrives in rhythm and structure, but the translatable traits, arm elasticity, off-platform creativity, and ceiling don’t quite match the production. If he lands in a high-tempo, talent-rich environment, the college numbers will follow. A program like Oregon, LSU, or Miami would maximize his strengths and likely spike his surface-level value.
From a devy standpoint, that’s your window.
If Leavitt lands at a marquee program and the buzz builds, I’m using that moment to move off the asset. He can absolutely help a team win at the college level, but for devy managers chasing NFL upside, this is a sell-on-hype profile rather than a long-term hold.
Drew Mestemaker | SO | 6’4”, 210
Last Team: North Texas
New Team: NA
Mestemaker is one of the more intriguing devy quarterbacks out there right now, and in most formats, he should still be available. The production is real, the path isn’t linear, and the upside case is built more on development than pedigree.
Naturally, there’s been speculation that Mestemaker could follow Eric Morris to Oklahoma State if he officially enters the portal. That connection makes sense on the surface. Morris identified him early, developed him, and helped turn him into one of the most productive quarterbacks in the country. But this isn’t a one-school situation. Quarterback-needy programs are circling, and the interest is expected to be strong.
Mestemaker’s background matters here. He wasn’t a blue-chip recruit or a quarterback factory product. In high school, he didn’t even start as a varsity QB, instead playing defensive back at Vandegrift in Austin, Texas. He arrived at North Texas as an unheralded walk-on in 2024 and spent most of his true freshman season as a backup. When his opportunity came, though, it didn’t take long to turn heads.
His first career start came in the First Responder Bowl after Chandler Morris transferred out. All Mestemaker did was put up 448 total yards and three touchdowns in a narrow loss, immediately making it clear that the moment wasn’t too big. That performance wasn’t a one-off. In the 2025 season opener, he threw for 329 yards and three scores while completing 75% of his passes, adding a rushing touchdown for good measure.
That set the tone for the year. Mestemaker posted three separate games with at least three passing touchdowns and one rushing score, guiding North Texas to an 11–1 regular-season record and a berth in the American Conference Championship Game. In that title game, he accounted for 294 passing yards and two touchdowns, once again showing he could operate in high-leverage spots.
The season-long numbers were loud. Mestemaker led the entire FBS with 4,129 passing yards, the only quarterback in the country to eclipse 4,000, and finished with 31 passing touchdowns, tying for second nationally. At 6’4”, 210 pounds, with three years of eligibility remaining, the appeal is obvious: size, durability, production, and time to develop.
From a devy standpoint, this is where it gets interesting. If Mestemaker simply follows Morris to Oklahoma State, the evaluation doesn’t change much: solid college producer, system familiarity, capped ceiling. But if he lands somewhere else, especially in a program willing to build around him as a multi-year starter, my devy ears perk up a bit more.
He has the physical tools to make a splash, and the growth curve is still climbing. This is the type of profile I’m willing to stash cheaply and reassess once the landing spot and offensive context are finalized.
Dylan Raiola | SO | 6’2.5”, 230
Last Team: Nebraska
New Team:
Raiola has always felt a little too good to be true, a devy asset propped up by pedigree, hype, and name recognition more than consistent translatable traits. A Nebraska legacy, Raiola leaves the program after two seasons as the starter, and while the box-score production looks respectable, the film and underlying issues tell a different story.
As a sophomore, Raiola threw for just over 2,000 yards with 18 touchdowns and six interceptions across nine starts, showing improvement as a passer before his season ended with a broken fibula in early November. But the biggest red flag wasn’t the injury, it was what stayed the same. Raiola was sacked 27 times, matching his previous season’s total despite playing four fewer games and having fewer dropbacks. That’s not random.
Nebraska’s offensive line struggled, no doubt. But sacks are also a quarterback stat. Protection checks, pocket awareness, internal clock, those all matter. Multiple Big Ten staffers echoed the same concern: Raiola takes too many sacks and doesn’t consistently create answers when the pocket collapses. When things break down, there’s very little Plan B. His lack of escapability shows up over and over again on tape.
That limitation has followed him since day one. Raiola started immediately as a true freshman in 2024 and helped lead Nebraska to its first bowl game since 2016, throwing for 2,819 yards and breaking the program’s freshman passing record. Across two seasons, he completed 69% of his passes for 4,819 yards with 31 touchdowns, but also 21 total turnovers. The production was there, but he never elevated the offense around him, and Nebraska never found the right scheme or personnel fit to truly unlock him.
This is where the devy conversation gets uncomfortable.
Raiola still has NFL traits. He’s big, has arm strength, and can operate when everything is clean. But the lack of mobility, inconsistent pocket management, and questions about maturity have capped his ceiling. The schools floated as potential landing spots, Louisville, Arizona State, don’t move the needle for me. Those are lateral situations that won’t change the evaluation.
From a devy standpoint, I’m out. The profile hasn’t progressed the way you want from a former No. 1 pocket passer, and the margin for error at the NFL level is thin for quarterbacks who can’t create outside structure.
That said, I understand the reality. A lot of managers spent a premium devy pick on Raiola. In most cases, you probably have to hold. But if a sleeper program with real offensive infrastructure, think Oregon, comes calling and the hype cycle spins back up, that’s your exit. At that point, I’m selling and not looking back.
DJ Lagway | SO | 6’2.5”, 230
Last Team: Florida
New Team: NA
Lagway is the one quarterback in this group I’m not quite out on yet — but he’s also the one who probably needs the most patience. Wherever he ends up post-Florida, this is a two-year development play, not an instant payoff.
A former consensus blue-chipper and ESPN’s No. 1 dual-threat quarterback in the 2024 class, Lagway leaves Florida after a turbulent stretch that included injuries, coaching turnover, and reported friction with the new staff under Jon Sumrall. The raw talent is undeniable. Lagway has a monster arm and arguably the highest ceiling of any player in the portal, regardless of position. Programs chasing upside are going to line up.
But the questions are real.
Can he clean up the turnovers? Did he leave Florida because of stylistic differences, or because the staff pushed him in ways he didn’t respond to? Five-star profiles don’t guarantee development, and Lagway’s time in Gainesville showed just how fragile that path can be when structure, health, and confidence all waver at once.
Injuries played a major role. Lagway missed spring practice following core muscle surgery, dealt with a shoulder issue, and then suffered a calf injury in July that limited his summer reps. He didn’t fully participate in 11-on-11 work until mid-August, and it showed. Florida never found rhythm offensively, opening the season 1–3, and Lagway never truly got in sync. His sophomore stat line — 16 touchdowns to 14 interceptions — reflects that instability more than a lack of talent.
The lack of mobility was especially noticeable. Lagway finished with just 136 rushing yards in 2025, a far cry from the dual-threat weapon he was billed as coming out of high school. Between the injuries and Billy Napier’s play-calling, his game was boxed in, predictable, and overly conservative.
Still, the flashes matter.
Late in the 2024 season, Lagway led Florida to four straight wins over LSU, Ole Miss, Florida State, and Tulane in the Gasparilla Bowl, showing exactly why NFL evaluators were already circling him as a potential 2027 draft prospect. As a true freshman starter, he went 6–1, throwing for 1,915 yards and 12 touchdowns while completing over 63% of his passes. That version of Lagway is why this conversation isn’t over.
From a devy standpoint, this is a bet on reset and environment. He needs a fresh start, a full offseason, and an offense willing to build around his arm talent while easing him back into using his legs. If a staff like Missouri’s under Eli Drinkwitz is willing to gamble on ceiling — especially with an established run game to take pressure off — Lagway becomes far more interesting. Give him an All-American caliber back, simplify the reads early, and let the talent breathe.
I’m not buying aggressively, but I’m not selling either. There’s still hope from a devy value perspective — just not immediate returns. Lagway is a long play, one that requires patience, development, and the right landing spot. If that aligns, the ceiling still makes the wait worthwhile.
Kenny Minchey | RS-SO | 6’1.5”, 201
Last Team: Notre Dame
New Team: NA
Of all the early portal entrants, Minchey is one of the more intriguing names, even if the move itself isn’t surprising. Once CJ Carr emerged the way he did, it was always going to be difficult for Notre Dame to keep every quarterback in the room.
Minchey narrowly lost out in the competition, and while he never won the job, it was clear he could play at this level. He leaves South Bend with his degree in hand and in search of something Notre Dame simply couldn’t offer him: a starting opportunity.
Coming out of high school, Minchey was a top-15 composite quarterback and an Elite 11 Finalist, and heading into the 2025 preseason he looked like a real peer to Carr. His quick release and ability to throw off-platform gave him a skill set that fit what Notre Dame has traditionally valued at the position. Still, when the staff ultimately leaned into Carr’s pocket passing profile, the writing was on the wall.
Minchey was never expected to start in 2025. CJ Carr entered spring as the presumptive favorite, and Steve Angeli had the experience edge. Minchey passing Angeli on the depth chart (which ultimately led to Angeli transferring to Syracuse) and pushing Carr deep into August was impressive and it generated real buzz inside the program. But with Carr holding multiple years of eligibility and now flirting with early-round NFL projections, Minchey’s path in South Bend was effectively blocked.
The résumé is thin. In three years at Notre Dame, Minchey appeared in 10 games and attempted just 29 passes, completing 20 of them for 196 yards. That lack of game reps matters for devy evaluation, even if the practice tape and internal feedback were strong.
From a devy standpoint, this is more of a monitor than a roster situation. Minchey isn’t someone I’m actively stashing right now, but he’s absolutely a name to track. If he truly pushed a quarterback who is now entering first-round conversations, then the landing spot becomes everything. A clean depth chart, patient staff, and clear development plan could quickly change the outlook.
For now, Minchey sits in that gray area: not rosterable, but not ignorable. File the name away and be ready to act once the destination becomes clear.
Rocco Becht | RS-Jr | 6’1”, 200
Last Team: Iowa State
New Team: NA
Becht entering the portal adds another experienced name to what is already the deepest and most fluid position group in this cycle. He leaves Iowa State as one of the most accomplished quarterbacks in program history, but from a devy perspective, this is more about timing and leverage than long-term upside.
A three-year starter, Becht played in 42 games for the Cyclones and finished his career completing 714 passes for 9,274 yards and 64 touchdowns, ranking top three all-time at Iowa State in both passing yards and passing scores. His best season came in 2024, when he threw for 3,505 yards and 25 touchdowns, leading the Cyclones to a Big 12 Championship Game appearance and a program-record 11 wins. That breakout earned him Big 12 Freshman of the Year honors the season prior and cemented him as the face of the program.
The 2025 season was more uneven. Becht threw for 2,584 yards with a 16-to-9 TD-to-INT ratio while playing through a shoulder injury for much of the year. He ultimately underwent surgery on his non-throwing shoulder for a torn labrum and would have missed a bowl game had Iowa State played in one. The program opted out of the postseason following Matt Campbell’s departure to Penn State, and shortly after, Becht made his portal decision.
Context matters. Becht has always been a steady, tough, competitive quarterback, and he adds value as a runner, finishing his Iowa State career with 19 rushing touchdowns. But from a devy lens, he profiles more as a high-end college starter than a true NFL ceiling play. Right now, he’s best viewed as a high-end backup devy asset rather than someone you’re actively chasing.
Where this gets interesting is the landing spot.
A reunion with Campbell at Penn State is the obvious storyline, especially with Drew Allar’s tenure ending prematurely in 2025 due to injury. If Becht lands in Happy Valley, the narrative will shift quickly. A Big Ten contender, national exposure, and a perceived step up in environment would almost certainly create a short-term value spike.
That’s the window.
From a devy standpoint, Becht isn’t a long-term hold for upside but if he lands at Penn State or a similar spotlight program, that’s when you look to sell. He’s a proven college quarterback, highly respected, and productive, but the NFL projection remains capped.
Monitor closely. The move itself doesn’t change much, the destination might.
Running Backs
There isn’t much in the way of high-end devy talent at running back in this portal cycle. While there are a few productive college backs and some situational upside plays, most of this group profiles more as CFF or depth options than true devy movers. Outside of a couple of specific cases, the ceiling here is limited unless a landing spot dramatically changes the projection.
Hollywood Smothers | JR | 5’10.5”, 190
Last Team: NC State
New Team: NA
Smothers is striking while the iron is hot and while I really wanted him to come out this year, the decision to re-enter the portal isn’t shocking. From a college value standpoint, he’s at or near his peak, and he’s betting that one more stop can either solidify his NFL case or keep the checks coming for another season.
A former three-star out of Charlotte, Smothers originally signed with Oklahoma in the 2023 class. As a freshman, he was buried behind a loaded backfield and touched the ball just 11 times across four games. That prompted a move closer to home, and the transfer to NC State in January of 2024 ended up being exactly what he needed.
At NC State, Smothers quickly carved out a role and steadily grew into a featured option. Even in 2024, when freshman QB CJ Bailey oddly led the team in rushing attempts, Smothers was far more efficient than the rest of the backfield. He averaged 6.4 yards per carry on 89 rushes while the other backs lagged behind in efficiency.
The breakout came in 2025. In 11 games, Smothers rushed for 939 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 5.9 yards per carry, and added real value as a receiver with 37 catches for 189 yards and another score. Over the last two seasons, he totaled more than 1,500 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns, showing consistent explosiveness and versatility. Without some late-season injury issues, he probably clears 1,000 yards.
Now listed closer to 195 pounds, Smothers is going to have no shortage of suitors. This is a thin running back portal class at the top, and teams looking for an instant-impact back will call. Programs like Notre Dame make sense on paper after losing major production to the NFL, but Smothers isn’t entering the portal without options already lined up.
From a devy perspective, this is where the evaluation gets tricky.
The size is a concern, and going back for a fourth collegiate season isn’t ideal for long-term value. That said, Smothers has real, translatable traits: burst, vision, contact balance, and receiving ability. He’s not a grinder, he’s a space player who can create chunk plays and stay on the field in passing situations.
I’m not viewing him as a core devy asset, but I’m also not dismissing him. The speed plays, the production is there, and the skill set fits today’s NFL backfields. If he lands in a system that leans into his strengths and keeps the efficiency up, he can still carve out mid-round draft capital.
Devy-wise, he’s more situational upside than long-term hold but there’s enough here to keep him firmly on the radar.
Marquise Davis | FR | 5’11”, 200
Last Team: Missouri
New Team: NA
Davis was buried in a loaded backfield and did exactly what you want a young running back to do in that situation, he preserved a redshirt, flashed when given opportunities, and didn’t force the issue. He appeared in just three games, but the efficiency jumped off the page.
In limited non-conference action, Davis logged 34 carries for 200 yards and two touchdowns, averaging nearly six yards per carry. His best outing came against Louisiana, where he went for 113 yards on 20 attempts, showing he could handle volume when leaned on. The UMass game added another 77 yards, including a season-long 23-yard run.
The tape matches the profile. Davis runs with real physicality and doesn’t go down on first contact. He’s more north-south than flashy, but there’s enough twitch to navigate traffic and enough patience to let blocks develop. He’s not a pure burner, but he’s fast enough, gets to the edge when needed, and catches the ball cleanly out of the backfield. This is a back who can handle tough carries and stay on the field.
The high school résumé explains the confidence. Davis was a consensus four-star out of Cleveland Heights, rushed for over 3,800 yards and 58 touchdowns over his final two seasons, and earned Ohio Gatorade Player of the Year honors. He also brings a track background, which shows up in his burst more than his long speed.
From a devy standpoint, he’s not rosterable right now. The sample size is too small, and the depth-chart context still matters. But this is absolutely a name to monitor. If Davis lands in a Power Four program with a clearer path to touches, he has the profile to become an impact player quickly.
This is a watch-list back, not someone you stash yet, but someone you don’t want to be late on if the situation breaks right.
Makhi Frazier | SO | 5’10”, 210
Last Team: McKinney (TX)
New Team: Michigan State
Dear Readers,
