Regrading the Board: Revisiting Last Season’s Rookie ADP (Rounds 1–2)
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Every rookie draft feels clean in the moment.
We stack rankings. We debate tiers. We talk ourselves into profiles, draft capital, and “long-term upside.” And for a few months, the board feels solved.
Then the season happens.
This article is about going back, not to victory lap or dunk on misses, but to re-examine last year’s rookie ADP through a sharper lens. Using consensus rookie drafts as the baseline, I’m re-grading every pick from Rounds 1 and 2 with one year of information in hand.
That matters.
Because dynasty success isn’t about being right in April, it’s about understanding why the market was right or wrong, and which bets were fundamentally sound even when the outcome didn’t cooperate.
This isn’t a box-score exercise.
It’s not a “who scored the most points” ranking.
And it’s definitely not hindsight scouting.
Instead, each pick is evaluated through:
Process vs. outcome
Value insulation vs. fragility
Role clarity vs. projection
How the dynasty market views the asset now
Before diving into individual re-grades, it’s important to zoom out.
Rookie ADP is where dynasty managers reveal their risk tolerance. Early picks expose our appetite for ceiling. Mid-round picks expose our fear of missing out. And by Round 2, we’re often drafting narratives instead of probability.
Re-grading these selections isn’t about rewriting history, it’s about stress-testing the assumptions that drove it.
And that’s where this exercise becomes useful.
Let’s start at the top of the board and work our way through Round 1.
Top 24 Rookie ADP (Rounds 1–2)
1.01 – Ashton Jeanty, RB, Raiders
Original ADP: 1.01
Draft Capital: 1.06 (LV)
2025 Finish: RB13 232.7 FPTS | 14.5 FPTS/G
Regrade: B-
Jeanty entered the league with about as much pressure as a rookie running back can carry. He was the first RB drafted in the 2025 class, a consensus 1.01 in rookie drafts, and in many rooms, a top-12 redraft selection. The expectations weren’t subtle; this was supposed to be a lineup anchor from Day 1.
From a role standpoint, he delivered exactly what managers hoped for.
Jeanty handled 240 carries across 16 games and posted an elite 85% team rush share, trailing only Jonathan Taylor league-wide. He accounted for over 80% of the Raiders’ RB touches, cleared workhorse thresholds weekly, and added legitimate passing-game value with 52 receptions and five receiving touchdowns, matching his five scores on the ground.
That kind of usage is gold in dynasty.
The issue wasn’t opportunity; it was how often that volume translated into difference-making production.
Jeanty settled in as a steady RB2 rather than the hammer managers paid for. Through Weeks 1–8, he sat at RB17 (12.6 PPG). From Weeks 9–17, he climbed modestly to RB14 (13.1 PPG). We saw flashes: two 100-yard games, two multi-TD weeks, and a semifinal eruption against Houston that briefly reminded managers why he went 1.01, but those spike weeks were the exception rather than the norm.
Context matters. Las Vegas dealt with one of the league’s weaker offensive lines, constant quarterback instability, a midseason play-caller change, and eventually shipped out its best receiver. That’s a tough ecosystem for any rookie back, let alone one carrying first-round expectations.
From a dynasty lens, this season didn’t break Jeanty, but it didn’t elevate him either.
Managers who drafted him didn’t lose value, but they also didn’t gain insulation. He was rarely a league-winner, even if he never became a liability.
The encouraging part? The runway ahead.
Las Vegas has already moved on from Pete Carroll, signaling a philosophical reset, and significant offensive line investment is expected. If you weathered the rookie season volatility, Jeanty still profiles as a volume-backed RB with a real path to a jump year.
Final Verdict:
Massive workload. Solid floor. Flashes of his potential ceiling.
Not the smash outcome some expected but still a bet worth holding.
1.02 – Omarion Hampton, RB, Chargers
Original ADP: 1.02
Draft Capital: 1.22 (LAC)
2025 Finish: RB33 135.7 FPTS | 15.1 FPTS/G
Regrade: B-
Hampton’s rookie season was abbreviated, but when he was on the field, the impact was immediate.
Despite appearing in just nine games, Hampton averaged 13.3 points per contest. Early camp noise suggested a true split with Najee Harris, but that conversation ended quickly once the games started. Every time Hampton touched the field, he looked like the plan.
Through Weeks 1–8, Hampton played five games and sat at RB14 (13.4 PPG). From Weeks 9–17, he checked in at RB13 (13.1 PPG) — a steady profile that never cratered, even as the Chargers leaned on him late in the year.
Usage tells the real story.
In those nine outings, Hampton caught 32 of 35 targets, scored once through the air, and dipped below 12 rushing attempts only once. When fantasy seasons were decided, he showed exactly the profile managers hoped for, stacking eight receptions and a touchdown in championship week, providing insulation when matchups tightened.
Context matters here.
Los Angeles dealt with a constantly shuffled offensive line, and Hampton returned from a fractured ankle in Week 14 to an offense held together with duct tape. Even so, the Chargers leaned on him when available. Kimani Vidal held serve admirably, but when Hampton returned, the staff clearly viewed him as the engine of the backfield.
The skill set fits.
Hampton’s size, speed, and receiving ability mesh perfectly with Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ pass-heavy tendencies. He creates easy outlet throws, stays on the field in scoring areas, and converts volume into points without relying on inefficient touches.
So why the B-?
Availability matters. Hampton missed seven weeks, and while I’m not docking him heavily for injury, it does prevent this from being a clean “value up” outcome. That said, when Hampton played, he delivered exactly what managers drafted him to be — an RB2 with RB1 spike weeks and a workload that felt stable rather than fragile.
Looking ahead, the arrow points up.
The Chargers are invested, offensive line reinforcements feel inevitable, and a potential coordinator shift could further unlock the offense. Hampton is unlikely to be alone in the backfield, but he doesn’t need to be to return value.
Final Verdict:
Missed time caps the grade, not the talent.
Hampton showed bell-cow traits, passing-game juice, and postseason reliability.
Dynasty Call: Buy this offseason before the market fully recalibrates
1.03 – Travis Hunter, WR, Jaguars
Original ADP: 1.03
Draft Capital: 1.02 (JAC)
2025 Finish: WR96 63.8 FPTS | 9.1 FPTS/G
Regrade: C-
Travis Hunter was always the most polarizing asset in this rookie class.
Jacksonville trading up to select him second overall was a statement, not just about talent, but about belief in the two-way experiment. For fantasy managers, that belief came with risk baked in, even if the upside was intoxicating.
Hunter’s rookie season never fully got off the ground.
He appeared in seven games before suffering a torn LCL in his right knee that required season-ending surgery in early November. Prior to the injury, Hunter logged 67% of offensive snaps compared to 36% on defense, catching 28 of 45 targets for 298 yards and one touchdown. The flashes were real, but the role was never stable enough to inspire confidence.
The bigger issue is what’s coming next.
Jaguars GM James Gladstone has already confirmed Hunter will remain a two-way player in 2026, with a clear implication that his defensive workload is expected to increase. That matters. Jacksonville enters the offseason with multiple cornerback contracts expiring, while the wide receiver room is suddenly a strength.
The midseason trade for Jakobi Meyers, followed by a three-year extension, changed the math. Brian Thomas Jr. is locked in outside, Parker Washington emerged late, and Meyers gives the staff a trusted veteran presence. Hunter is no longer needed to prop up the passing game.
That’s a red flag for fantasy.
Even if Hunter returns around May, reduced offensive snaps combined with defensive emphasis is a brutal combo for sustaining WR value. Two-way novelty helps real football. It hurts dynasty managers chasing weekly reliability.
The market hasn’t fully adjusted yet.
Hunter’s value remains elevated due to:
Name recognition
Draft capital
Highlight-reel reputation
The idea of upside rather than realized production
That disconnect is the opportunity.
This isn’t a talent fade, it’s a role and availability bet. Hunter may be an exceptional football player, but dynasty managers need every-down offensive roles, not situational usage and snap uncertainty.
Final Verdict:
The process bet made sense in rookie drafts.
The situation has shifted against fantasy utility.
If you can flip Hunter for a locked-in every-week contributor or pivot into insulated value, this is the window.
Sell before the snap counts tell the rest of the story.
