Week 0 is always a little dangerous. We finally have college football back, but we are also betting with less information than we’ll have at any other point in the season. There are no recent data points, depth charts are still settling, and offseason projections can only tell us so much once teams actually take the field.
The other challenge is the limited slate. There simply aren’t a ton of games to choose from, which makes it easy to force action just because football is back. That’s something I want to avoid. The goal this week is simple: stay selective, trust the spots where we have an edge, and don’t overreact to the excitement of Week 0.
With such a limited Week 0 slate, I’m cutting this week’s card down from the usual five bets to three. There’s no reason to force action just to hit a number. Give me the three spots I feel strongest about, and we’ll save the bigger cards for when we have more games and more information to work with.
Five Best Bets ATS
TCU -6.5 vs. North Carolina
This is my favorite spot on the Week 0 slate.
North Carolina enters Year 2 of the Bill Belichick experiment after an ugly 4-8 debut season, while TCU has quietly won nine games in each of the past two years under Sonny Dykes. Now the Horned Frogs get an opportunity to open the season on a national stage in Dublin against a program that still feels like it is trying to find its footing. Both teams will have new quarterbacks, but I trust TCU’s situation significantly more. Harvard transfer Jaden Craig threw for 2,869 yards and 25 touchdowns last season, and the reports out of Fort Worth have been positive throughout camp. TCU also has a backfield I expect to be one of the strengths of this offense. Jeremy Payne is the name everyone knows after his Alamo Bowl performance, but the depth behind him gives the Frogs multiple ways to attack North Carolina on the ground.
That is ultimately where I think this game gets decided. TCU should be able to lean on its offensive line, establish the run and gradually wear down the Tar Heels. There are still questions about how quickly the new offense comes together under Gordon Sammis, but I trust Sonny Dykes and the overall stability of this program much more than what North Carolina has shown under Belichick. TCU beat North Carolina 48-14 last season. I’m not expecting another 34-point beatdown, but I do think the Horned Frogs are clearly the better team.
Best Bet: TCU -6.5
The market has already started agreeing, with TCU moving as high as -7.5 at some books.
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