Week 0 was a little rocky, but Week 1 was exactly the bounce-back we needed. We went 7-3 across game picks, totals, and player props, bringing the season record to 10-7 overall.
Now we get to Week 2 with more information, more real usage to evaluate, and a better understanding of what these teams actually are. That matters. We are starting to see which offenses are legitimate, which preseason assumptions were wrong, and where the market may still be playing catch-up.
We are sitting at 58.8% for the season, so the goal now is simple: stay disciplined, keep attacking good numbers, and build on the momentum from Week 1.
Five Best Bets ATS
Alabama @ Kentucky Over 49.5 Points
I like the over here because I think both offenses can contribute.
Kentucky handled Youngstown State 45-13 in Week 1, but there were still some warning signs on defense. Youngstown threw for 243 yards, moved the chains 20 times and converted 8-of-15 third downs. The Wildcats completely shut down the run, but their secondary gave up enough through the air to make me interested in this spot. That matters because Alabama should be aggressive with Keelon Russell in his first road start. I think Russell has a chance to really announce himself here. Kentucky’s defense has some talent, but there are still a lot of new pieces and a new coordinator in Jay Bateman. If Alabama can create some explosive plays in the passing game, I would not be surprised to see Russell push toward 300 yards while the Tide offense gets into the 30s. I also think Alabama’s running game will have success. EJ Crowell flashed in limited work last week, and the Tide should have multiple ways to attack this defense.
The other reason I like the over is that I think Kentucky can score too. Alabama’s secondary is talented, but it is aggressive. They take chances, and that can create opportunities for big plays if Kentucky can protect long enough to hit them. I do not need the Wildcats to light up the scoreboard. Give me something in the 17-to-24 point range, and Alabama should be able to do the rest. A 35-20 or 38-21 type of game gets us there comfortably.
Best Bet: Alabama at Kentucky Over 49.5
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