Week 3 was easily our best week of the season. We went 8-1 across game picks, totals, and player props, pushing the season record to 23-11 overall.
More importantly, it feels like we are starting to get a much clearer read on these teams. We have three full weeks of data now, offensive identities are becoming more defined, rotations are settling in, and we are getting a better feel for which teams the market may still be undervaluing or overvaluing.
There are always going to be bad beats and weird college football moments, but the process has been strong lately, and the results are following.
We are now 23-11 and hitting 67.6% for the season.
The goal heading into Week 4 is simple: don’t get overconfident, stay disciplined, trust the numbers, and keep stacking winning weeks.
Five Best Bets ATS
UCLA -1.5 vs. Maryland
I told you I found my wagon this year, and it’s UCLA. The Bruins are 3-0 under Bob Chesney, and at this point the formula is pretty obvious. They stay patient early, lean on the run game, wear teams down, and then start taking control as the game goes on.
That rushing attack has been one of the best in the country. UCLA is averaging 287 rushing yards per game, Wayne Knight already has 345 yards and eight touchdowns, and Anthony Woods and Jaivian Thomas have both been efficient enough to keep this from becoming a one-man backfield. Even Nico Iamaleava gives them another rushing threat.
That matters against a Maryland team dealing with real issues in the backfield. The Terps are already without DeJuan Williams, Harry Dalton III is out, and the depth behind them has been hit hard too. That puts even more pressure on Malik Washington and the passing game to carry the offense.
And that is the one area that gives me some pause. UCLA has been vulnerable through the air. Purdue threw for 378 yards and three touchdowns against them, so Washington absolutely has a path to make this uncomfortable. But Maryland becoming one-dimensional actually plays into UCLA’s hands a little more than it might seem. Sammy Omosigho has been all over the field, the Bruins can pressure the quarterback, and Maryland is going to have a hard time matching UCLA’s physicality for four quarters.
The travel across the country is not ideal, but I trust what UCLA has shown me more. This team knows exactly what it wants to be, and against a short-handed Maryland backfield, I think the Bruins eventually impose themselves. I’m riding the wagon again.
Best Bet: UCLA -1.5
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