Week 4 was another solid week. We finished 5-3 across game picks, totals, and player props, pushing the season record to 28-14 overall.
That brings us to 66.7% on the season, and at this point we have enough information to feel a lot more confident in what these teams actually are. Offensive identities are established, rotations are clearer, injuries are starting to matter more, and the market has had time to adjust.
That also means the easy edges are going to be harder to find.
So the goal heading into Week 5 is not to force anything. Stay disciplined, trust the spots we like, and keep attacking the numbers where we think the market is still off.
We’ve stacked three straight winning weeks.
Now let’s go make it four.
Five Best Bets ATS
BYU -6.5 vs. TCU
I’m laying the points with BYU because I think this matchup plays directly into what the Cougars do best.
TCU’s defense has been the strength of the team, but it has been more bend-don’t-break than dominant. The Horned Frogs have done a great job keeping teams out of the end zone, but they are still allowing opponents to move the ball and get into scoring territory.
That is a problem against BYU. The Cougars have been one of the best offenses in the country at finishing drives. They stay ahead of the chains, avoid negative plays, and once they get into scoring territory, they have been extremely efficient at turning those opportunities into touchdowns.
I also really like the matchup up front. BYU ranks near the top of the country in avoiding tackles for loss, while TCU has not been great at creating stops at the line of scrimmage. That should allow the Cougars to stay on schedule and keep themselves out of obvious passing situations.
On the other side, I think BYU’s defense can make life difficult on TCU. The Horned Frogs have relied on explosive passing plays to create offense, but BYU has been excellent at limiting those. If the Cougars force TCU to methodically drive the field, I’m not sure the Horned Frogs are consistent enough to do that for four quarters.
TCU also continues to have issues in the red zone and with turnovers. That is a bad combination against a BYU team that has been much cleaner and much more efficient in scoring situations. I think this stays competitive early, but BYU’s ability to finish drives is the difference.
Best Bet: BYU -6.5
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