Week 6 was another winning week. We finished 5-3 across game picks, totals, and player props, pushing the season record to 39-19 overall.
That puts us at 67.2% on the season, and we were literally half a yard away from an even better week.
But that is betting. You are going to have wins that feel easy, losses that make sense, and a few that come down to one play or half a yard. The important thing is that we are still stacking winning weeks and staying on the right side of the process.
By this point in the season, the market knows these teams too. The easy numbers are mostly gone, so the edge comes from matchup details, injuries, usage changes, and being willing to stay patient when the board does not give us much.
We are not chasing. We are not forcing plays. We are just going to keep trusting the spots we like and see if we can stack another winning Saturday.
Five Best Bets ATS
Ohio State -3.5 @ Indiana
This is the game of the week, and I’m laying the points with Ohio State.
Indiana is absolutely good enough to make this a four-quarter fight. Curt Cignetti has turned this into a legitimate national title program, the Hoosiers are undefeated, and the defensive front can create real problems. Tobi Osunsanmi and Stephen Daley have combined for 10 sacks, and Indiana got to Julian Sayin five times in last year’s Big Ten Championship game.
That is the concern.
But I keep coming back to the difference-maker Ohio State has on the outside.
Jeremiah Smith is having another ridiculous season and continues to rewrite the record books. He went for 144 yards against Indiana last year, and this time the Hoosiers have to deal with him without D’Angelo Ponds in the secondary. Over 60 minutes, I think that becomes a major problem.
Indiana also has not been tested much yet. They survived tighter games against Northwestern and Nebraska, but Ohio State is a completely different level of opponent. The Buckeyes have been consistently productive offensively, and if Sayin gets even decent protection, I trust Ohio State to create enough explosive plays to separate.
The Indiana pass rush will keep this close.
Smith is the reason I think Ohio State eventually pulls away.
This feels like a one-score game deep into the fourth quarter, but I think the Buckeyes get the late score they need.
Best Bet: Ohio State -3.5
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