The Big Picture: A 5-Round Combined Rookie + Devy Mock Draft
How rookie and devy values stack up across a single unified board.
As we officially turn the page to the next offseason in both devy and dynasty, this is the point on the calendar where value begins to quietly shift. Narratives change, timelines stretch, and the market starts reacting long before most managers are paying attention. That’s where opportunity lives.
For this mock, we wanted to zoom out and look at the big picture. We ran a five-round combined rookie and devy mock that includes every eligible college player, regardless of whether they declared, returned to school, or are still years away. That also meant pulling in the incoming 2029 freshman class, allowing us to start stacking those names against established devy assets and even members of the 2026 class to see where true value lines up across timelines.
The goal of this Substack has always been simple: provide value where value isn’t obvious. Not just who is rising or falling, but why, and whether the market has already overcorrected. Throughout this mock, we’re going to dig into each selection and examine where a player’s value currently sits, whether it has climbed, stalled, or dipped, and how that movement should be viewed through a long-term devy and dynasty lens.
This isn’t about labels. It’s about context, trajectory, and understanding how all of these assets stack up on a single, unified board as we move deeper into the offseason.
Round 1
1.01 – Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State (2027)
Value Status: ↔️ Elite / Market Anchor
The only real surprise at the top of this mock is that Jeremiah Smith comes off the board ahead of Jeremiyah Love, who many already view as the likely 1.01 in 2026 rookie drafts. Even so, this selection was a no-brainer from the start. Smith entered the offseason as the consensus top overall asset in devy formats, and while it’s hard to gain value from the 1.01, maintaining it at this level is just as impressive.
What separates Smith in a combined board like this is how insulated his value is. He’s not just dominating within the devy landscape — he stacks comfortably against top rookie assets despite being a year away. The physical profile, polish, and weekly reliability all point to a prospect who feels closer to “inevitable” than “projection.” There’s no real debate about role translation, usage, or long-term ceiling, which matters when you’re weighing timeline versus certainty.
At his size, Smith checks every box you want in a future NFL alpha: physical at the catch point, capable of winning against press, and refined enough as a route runner to consistently separate. Defenses can’t scheme him away, and that consistency is exactly why his value hasn’t wavered while others around him fluctuate.
From a market standpoint, this is less about upside chasing and more about asset security. You do have to wait an extra year compared to someone like Love, but Smith profiles as one of the cleanest wide receiver bets we’ve seen in years — the type of prospect who feels locked in as a top-five pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.
📌 Takeaway: Between Love and Smith, you really can’t go wrong — but in a unified rookie/devy board, Smith’s combination of ceiling, safety, and insulation makes him the ideal 1.01 anchor.
1.02 – Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame (2026)
Value Status: ⬆️ Rising Fast
It’s rare for a running back taken outside the very top of devy drafts to meaningfully increase his value, but Jeremiyah Love has done exactly that and then some. What once felt like a strong bet has turned into a true cornerstone asset, to the point where Love now sits at the very top of my overall 2026 rookie big board.
What makes Love so compelling in a combined rookie and devy context is how clean the projection has become. He’s no longer just a high-upside runner; he’s proven himself as a complete, every-down back whose game translates seamlessly to the next level. The receiving ability, the vision, the contact balance, and the burst all show up consistently, and just as importantly, the previous concerns around pass protection have faded into the background.
Physically, Love checks the boxes you want in a modern NFL RB1. He has effortless acceleration, strong balance through contact, and the ability to turn routine carries into explosive gains without needing perfect blocking. He’s comfortable operating in space, effective between the tackles, and difficult to game-plan against because there’s no clear weakness to attack.
From a value perspective, Love is fascinating because he straddles both worlds. He offers the timeline advantage over Smith, projecting as a premium 2026 rookie pick, while also carrying the type of upside that keeps him competitive with elite wide receiver prospects on a unified board. In another room, or on another day, Love easily could have been the 1.01 and that’s not a reach.
📌 Takeaway: Love’s value has moved from “elite RB prospect” to “true franchise asset.” In a combined rookie/devy draft, he belongs firmly at the very top of the board and gives managers legitimate flexibility depending on build and window.
1.03 – Ryan Williams, WR, Alabama (2027)
Value Status: ⬇️ Softening
This selection is where the board starts to get complicated. Coming into the season, there was a real expectation that Ryan Williams would ascend into the same elite tier as Jeremiah Smith. That jump simply hasn’t happened and at this point, it’s fair to say this slot may have been early.
To be clear, Williams’ value hasn’t cratered. He’s not a bust, and the long-term ceiling still exists. But the gap between projection and production has widened, and in a combined rookie/devy format, that matters. What once felt like a safe top-three devy asset now carries more uncertainty than insulation.
Part of the issue has been availability and consistency. Williams hasn’t looked right for long stretches, and while the flashes still show up the acceleration, the fluidity after the catch, the ability to win in space they’ve been far too sporadic. Over the back half of the season, his impact has faded, and that’s where concern starts to creep in for a player priced this aggressively.
The market is beginning to react. There are already whispers about his long-term situation and potential movement, and while that could eventually benefit him, it also introduces another layer of risk. In a unified board where you’re weighing him directly against locked-in rookies and more insulated devy assets, Williams no longer feels like a slam-dunk selection this early.
That doesn’t mean the door is closed. Talent like this doesn’t disappear overnight, and a strong rebound whether late this season or next could quickly stabilize his value. But right now, he belongs in a different conversation tier than Smith and Love.
📌 Takeaway: This was an aggressive bet on ceiling. Williams still has upside, but his value has softened enough that he profiles better as a buy-low target later in Round 1 rather than a true top-three cornerstone on a combined board.
1.04 – Bo Jackson, RB, Ohio State (2028)
Value Status: ⬆️ Massive Riser
This is an aggressive pick and I absolutely love it. I’ve got the receipts here: Bo Jackson was my RB1 in the freshman class, and that evaluation is aging about as well as it possibly could. What started as an upside swing has quickly turned into one of the biggest breakout wins of the entire devy cycle.
What makes this selection stand out on a combined rookie/devy board is how quickly Jackson has vaulted from “future asset” to “present value.” What was expected to be a veteran-led backfield has instead shifted decisively in his favor, and Jackson has established himself as the engine of the room. That matters. Early trust, role clarity, and trajectory are everything when you’re betting on young running backs.
On film, Jackson checks every box you want in a future NFL lead back. He runs with real physicality and balance, stays square through contact, and consistently finishes runs. There’s impressive short-area suddenness for a back of his size, with the ability to stack cuts and redirect without gearing down. The athleticism is obvious, and it shows up both inside and on the perimeter. This isn’t a niche role player, it’s a back who can handle volume or thrive in space.
More importantly, this doesn’t feel like empty production or a short-term heater. Jackson’s vision and instincts are already ahead of schedule, and his frame looks college-ready right now. There are still developmental areas, pass protection and some of the finer details but that’s expected for a true freshman. The foundation is already there.
From a value standpoint, Jackson is doing something very few backs can do this early: compress the timeline. He’s not just a long-term devy stash anymore; he’s an asset whose value is actively climbing and beginning to rival older, more established names. In many formats, he already profiles as the RB1, regardless of class.
📌 Takeaway: Jackson looks like the next great Ohio State back on a trajectory reminiscent of past Buckeye stars. If this growth curve holds, even without perfection, we could be staring at a future first-round NFL talent. This was aggressive, but it was right.
1.05 – Makai Lemon, WR, USC (2026)
Value Status: ⬆️ Massive Riser
Makai Lemon has been one of the biggest movers in the entire devy landscape, and at this point, there’s a real argument that he’s the best wide receiver in the country not named Jeremiah Smith. When I updated my 2026 big board, Lemon landed inside my top three overall and nothing about this season suggests that ranking is too aggressive. If anything, it may still be catching up.
What stands out most in a combined rookie/devy format is how complete Lemon’s profile has become. He isn’t just producing, he’s functioning as the offensive identity. He’s the engine, the chain-mover, the explosive-play threat, and the safety valve. That type of role matters when you’re trying to separate volume-driven college stars from receivers whose games actually translate.
Lemon’s refinement is the separator. He plays with intention and detail, looking far more like a veteran pro than a developing college receiver. His releases are calculated, his route pacing is advanced, and his ability to manipulate defenders with leverage and timing consistently creates clean separation. He’s reliable, sure-handed, and trusted in high-leverage situations, traits that tend to age extremely well as prospects move toward the NFL.
Despite not being a prototypical size monster, Lemon consistently wins at the catch point thanks to elite body control, late hands, and excellent ball tracking. After the catch, he transitions seamlessly into a runner, showing balance, vision, and toughness through traffic. USC’s willingness to deploy him all over the formation speaks volumes about both his versatility and football IQ.
The only remaining question and it’s a minor one, is continued dominance outside the slot at the next level. But the footwork, processing, and athletic profile all suggest that transition won’t be an issue. He wins in too many ways to be pigeonholed.
From a value perspective, Lemon has made the leap from “interesting devy WR2” to foundational asset in under a year. On a unified board, he belongs firmly in the top five, regardless of position or class, and profiles as a future first-round NFL receiver with WR1 upside in the 2026 class.
📌 Takeaway: Lemon is one of the safest and strongest bets in all of devy right now. If you roster him, you’re holding a premium asset. If you don’t, this is the type of profile that’s worth paying for because it translates.
1.06 – Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State (2026)
Value Status: ⬆️ Major Riser
This is what betting on upside looks like when it actually pays off. Carnell Tate entered the year as a traits-based projection, polished, fluid, technically advanced, but still waiting on the full breakout to match the profile. Now? He’s delivered it, and his value has climbed accordingly.
In a combined rookie/devy format, wide receivers continue to carry the most insulation, and Tate fits that mold almost perfectly. The floor is high because the skill set is already refined, and the ceiling has become clearer as his role and impact have grown. This isn’t just “good production catching up to traits”; it’s a receiver whose game is translating in a way that feels sustainable.
Before Jeremiah Smith arrived in Columbus, Tate was viewed as the headliner of Ohio State’s next wave of elite receivers. That pedigree still matters. What’s changed is that Tate has turned that early polish into consistent impact, winning with detail, timing, and nuance rather than relying purely on athleticism. He’s become a premier vertical threat by manipulating leverage and pacing, not by simply running past defenders.
The pairing with Julian Sayin has helped unlock that next level. As defenses tilt coverage toward Smith, Tate has punished single coverage and, at times, looked like the more reliable option snap-to-snap. Ohio State now has one of the most dangerous receiver duos in the country, and Tate is a full-fledged part of that equation, not a secondary piece.
On tape, Tate already looks like a pro. The releases are clean, the route stems are purposeful, and the body control at the catch point is outstanding. He’s tough, competitive, and unselfish, especially as a blocker. The remaining questions, functional strength and consistent separation against elite press, are real, but they’re also coachable. There’s nothing structural here that caps his upside.
From a value perspective, this slot reflects how the board is behaving. You could argue for a quarterback swing here, Dante Moore or Julian Sayin would make sense in a different build but the floor with Tate is safer, and in a unified board, that matters. He now profiles as a top-tier devy asset with legitimate first-round NFL upside in the 2026 class.
📌 Takeaway: Tate is no longer “the other Buckeye receiver.” He’s a rising cornerstone wideout whose combination of polish, role, and trajectory makes him one of the safest upside bets in the first round of a combined rookie/devy draft.
1.07 – Dante Moore, QB, Oregon (2026)
Value Status: ↗️ Stabilizing / Ceiling Intact
This is the first quarterback off the board, and no player in this range experienced a wider reputational swing this season than Dante Moore. His year was a full arc, early-season ascent, midseason turbulence, and a late correction that reminded evaluators why he was once viewed as a potential QB1 in the class.
Early on, Moore looked like the guy. The arm talent popped immediately, velocity, touch, layering throws to all levels, and the ability to create outside of structure. Everything about his profile screamed future NFL starter, and for a stretch, the conversation around him included Heisman buzz and top-of-the-draft projections.
Then came the rough patch. A few high-profile mistakes, adverse conditions, and physical adversity disrupted his rhythm, and the market reacted fast. In devy circles, confidence wavered. That’s the danger zone for quarterbacks, when short-term volatility meets long-term projection.
What matters, though, is how he responded.
Down the stretch, Moore steadied himself and looked far more like the version evaluators trust. The mechanics tightened, the feel within structure improved, and the decision-making settled. Most importantly, the high-end traits never disappeared. The arm elasticity, anticipation, platform flexibility, and natural timing all remained present, the foundation of his projection stayed intact.
From an NFL lens, Moore is still viewed very favorably. The league has consistently valued his ceiling, maturity, and schematic versatility, and it’s becoming increasingly clear that a declaration is the likely path. If he does enter the draft, he’ll be firmly in the conversation as the first quarterback selected, and potentially the first overall pick, based purely on tools and projection.
In a combined rookie/devy format, this is exactly where quarterbacks begin to make sense. You’re no longer passing on locked-in elite wide receivers or insulated running backs, and Moore offers something most others don’t: true franchise-QB upside. The season may have been uneven in the middle, but the arrow has stabilized, not cratered.
📌 Takeaway: Moore’s profile weathered the storm. The volatility scared off some managers, but the ceiling remains elite and with a likely declaration looming, this is a confident hold with legitimate QB1 overall upside in the class.
1.08 – Cam Coleman, WR, Auburn (2027)
Value Status: ⬇️ Slight Dip (Talent Unchanged)
Much like Ryan Williams, Cam Coleman is a player who has flashed nearly everything evaluators want to see without getting the clean breakout many were expecting. The key distinction here is that the limiting factor hasn’t been talent; it’s been environment.
Auburn’s offense has been inconsistent at best and outright dysfunctional at times, and that context matters. It’s difficult for any wide receiver to stack week-to-week dominance when quarterback play and offensive structure are working against them. Coleman has often been asked to win in isolation or bail out broken plays rather than operate within a system designed to feature his strengths.
Physically, nothing has changed. Coleman remains one of the premier athletic profiles in the devy landscape: prototypical size, real speed, explosion, and short-area quickness that shows up both on the perimeter and after the catch. When the ball does come his way, the flashes are still obvious, contested wins, vertical stress, and the ability to flip the field in a hurry.
What’s holding his value in check right now is uncertainty, not decline. He hasn’t consistently been put in positions to dominate, and that has kept his market price from climbing alongside some of his peers. That’s why this selection still leans heavily on projection but it’s informed projection, rooted in traits that NFL teams consistently bet on.
The next step is the swing factor. Auburn’s offensive direction matters, and so does Coleman’s long-term situation. As of now, there’s no movement and nothing definitive to act on but it’s something devy managers are watching closely. A system upgrade, improved quarterback play, or schematic commitment to the passing game could unlock everything that’s been suppressed so far.
📌 Takeaway: The dip is about surroundings, not skill. Coleman remains a first-round devy talent with NFL-level tools, and this range represents a buying window. If his environment improves, this valuation won’t last.
1.09 – Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State (2027)
Value Status: ⬆️ Meteoric Rise / Elite Tier
If you’re looking for the player who may have fully leapfrogged his teammate in devy value, it’s Julian Sayin. And honestly, this shouldn’t come as a surprise. All offseason, the conversation around Sayin centered on value, not just tools, but how quickly those tools could translate in a high-expectation environment.
What Sayin has done is separate through efficiency, command, and composure. He’s operating the offense at a veteran level, consistently making the right decision with the football, controlling tempo, and punishing defenses that give him even a small window. This isn’t chaos-ball production or scheme inflation, it’s repeatable quarterbacking.
From a traits standpoint, Sayin checks nearly every box you want in a future franchise QB. The accuracy is elite at all levels, the anticipation shows up early in routes, and his processing speed allows him to stay ahead of pressure rather than react to it. He’s calm, poised, and unfazed by the expectations that come with playing quarterback at Ohio State, a nontrivial detail when projecting to Sundays.
That said, the profile isn’t flawless yet. There are still reps he needs. The loss to Indiana and the struggles against Texas exposed areas where experience matters, handling disruption, adjusting when timing gets knocked off, and sustaining rhythm against elite defenses. Those moments don’t derail the projection, but they are worth monitoring as part of his growth curve.
In a combined rookie/devy format, Sayin’s rise reflects how desperate the market is for true QB1 upside in the 2027 class and how convincingly he’s answered that call. If Ohio State continues winning at the highest level and Sayin keeps trending upward, it’s not hard to envision him entering next year as the odds-on favorite to be the 1.01 in 2027 rookie drafts in superflex formats, possibly even ahead of Jeremiah Smith.
📌 Takeaway: Sayin isn’t a finished product yet, but the foundation is elite. He’s rapidly becoming a cornerstone devy quarterback, and unless someone pays absolute premium pricing, this is a hold-and-build asset with legitimate 1.01 upside.
1.10 – Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State (2025)
Value Status: ↔️ Holding (Volatile)
This pick feels fair and honestly, it’s probably the most accurate representation of Jordyn Tyson in a combined rookie/devy format. The talent has never been the question. The concern is whether that talent can ever fully clear the durability hurdle.
When Tyson is on the field, he looks like a first-round caliber wide receiver. The separation ability is real, the movement skills are fluid, and he can win at all three levels of the field. He understands leverage, stacks corners with ease, and has the vertical juice to stress coverage. From a pure traits perspective, he still belongs in this tier.
The issue and it’s becoming harder to ignore is availability.
Tyson’s profile now includes multiple seasons where injuries have interrupted momentum. None of these setbacks alone would be disqualifying, but the pattern matters. In devy formats, especially when you’re stacking assets across timelines, repeated missed time chips away at insulation. It doesn’t erase upside, but it tightens the margin for error.
There are also smaller evaluative nits that start to matter more when durability becomes a concern. Physical engagement and blocking effort haven’t consistently matched his receiving talent, and that’s something NFL evaluators notice when deciding how early a player truly comes off the board.
From a value standpoint, this explains why Tyson hasn’t climbed despite showing high-end flashes. The market isn’t doubting the ceiling — it’s pricing in the risk. In a combined rookie/devy board, that pushes him toward the back half of Round 1 rather than the elite tier.
📌 Takeaway: Tyson remains a strong prospect with real upside, but he’s also a calculated risk. This is a hold with eyes open asset. If a league mate is willing to price him as a future WR1, you listen. Otherwise, you ride the talent and hope a fully healthy stretch restores some lost insulation.
1.11 – Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri (2027)
Value Status: ↗️ Rising (Profile Under Evaluation)
This is exactly why these combined drafts matter. Ahmad Hardy going this high is notable, it’s the highest we’ve seen him selected in any format and it perfectly captures how quickly value can shift when opportunity and production collide.
There’s no denying the breakout. Hardy has been one of the most productive backs in the country, thriving as the engine of Missouri’s offense. He runs with real violence through contact, finishes forward consistently, and has a knack for generating extra yardage when plays should be dead. The vision fits the scheme, the workload is secure, and the confidence is obvious. From a CFF and short-term C2C perspective, he’s been a cheat code.
The question and it’s a big one is why.
Hardy’s profile is heavily volume-driven, and Missouri’s system has a long history of inflating running back production without consistently producing early-round NFL backs. That doesn’t mean Hardy can’t be the exception, but it does mean evaluators have to be careful separating player from environment. Right now, the offense is doing a lot of the lifting.
From a devy standpoint, that creates a tension point. Hardy has earned a value bump based on what he’s shown, but long-term insulation remains thin. The athletic profile isn’t elite, and the receiving upside still needs to become a bigger part of the evaluation. Without those elements, he risks being viewed as a high-end college producer rather than a locked-in NFL difference-maker.
That said, the door is open. The 2027 running back class has room at the top, and Hardy has an opportunity to answer the only question that matters: is this the system, or is it him? If he continues to separate himself independent of scheme especially by expanding his role, his value trajectory could change dramatically.
📌 Takeaway: Hardy is a perfect test case for this format. Enjoy the production, but stay disciplined. If someone prices him like a future NFL RB1, it’s a sell. If not, let the season play out, he still has time to prove he belongs among the best backs in the 2027 class.
1.12 – Malachi Toney, WR, Miami (2028)
Value Status: ⬆️ Rapid Ascent / Early Breakout
This is one of those picks that perfectly captures the upside of a combined rookie/devy board. Malachi Toney might already be the best freshman wide receiver in the country and that’s saying something given how early he is in his development curve.
Toney shouldn’t even be on campus yet. A former 2026 recruit who reclassified, skipped his senior year of high school, and jumped straight into college football, he walked into Miami looking anything but overwhelmed. From the moment spring ball opened, he looked like he belonged, and that momentum has carried over into real, meaningful production.
What stands out most is how natural his game looks. Toney is a technician in the slot, separating with short-area quickness, polished footwork, and outstanding hands. He’s twitchy rather than fast, explosive out of breaks, and dangerous once the ball is in his hands. He understands spacing, timing, and leverage in a way that most freshmen simply don’t.
The situation matters, too. With Miami searching for new answers in the passing game, Toney has stepped into opportunity immediately. He’s already earned trust, carved out a role, and emerged as a featured playmaker on a team heading into high-profile matchups. That combination of early role + advanced feel for the position is exactly how devy value accelerates.
From a projection standpoint, Toney isn’t built on raw measurables. He wins with processing, nuance, and football IQ, traits that tend to translate and age well. His prep background at a top South Florida program shows up in his readiness and confidence, and his work ethic has been consistently praised by the staff. He is also one of the best special teams weapons in the country.
In a combined format, this is the ideal Round 1 swing. You’re betting on trajectory, not just résumé. Toney is young, ascending, and already producing against college competition, the hardest box to check for any freshman asset.
📌 Takeaway: Toney’s rise has been real, fast, and earned. He’s an elite stash with legitimate future WR1 upside, and landing him at the end of Round 1 feels like exactly the kind of value this format is designed to uncover.
Round 2
2.01 – Bryant Wesco, WR, Clemson (2027)
Value Status: ⬇️ Short-Term Dip (Injury-Driven)
If not for the neck injury, there’s a very real argument that Bryant Wesco would be pushing top-five overall consideration and honestly, he may end up being a better long-term prospect than Ryan Williams when it’s all said and done. Before going down, Wesco wasn’t just meeting expectations; he was clearly separating as Clemson’s offensive engine and flashing true alpha traits with inside-outside versatility, explosive ability after the catch, and field-stretching speed.
The injury was scary, and any time spinal involvement is mentioned, the market reacts quickly. That’s understandable but important context matters. All indications point toward a full recovery, and nothing about Wesco’s value dip is tied to performance or skill erosion. His burst, body control, and separation ability remain first-round NFL traits, and in the 2027 class, he still profiles as a potential WR2 behind Jeremiah Smith once healthy.
📌 Takeaway: This is a classic injury discount. Wesco’s ceiling hasn’t changed, only the timeline perception has. If your league is nervous, this is exactly the type of devy asset you buy aggressively.
2.02 – Dallas Wilson, WR, Florida (2028)
Value Status: ⬆️ Rising (Traits-Based Bet)
Dallas Wilson is a classic traits-and-upside selection, and the kind of swing this format rewards. Even in a shortened season impacted by injuries, he showed enough to push his devy value forward. The size-speed blend, confidence at the catch point, and ability to threaten defenses vertically all flashed in limited opportunities, reinforcing why he was viewed as one of the most intriguing receivers in his class.
Wilson carries true WR1 traits. He’s physical, competitive, and plays with an alpha demeanor, winning through contact and embracing the dirty work as a blocker. While the profile is still built on projection, the upside is obvious, and a full, healthy season could easily vault him into first-round devy conversations. Program uncertainty adds some risk and potentially opportunity but in this range, betting on ceiling makes sense.
📌 Takeaway: This is a clean upside play. If Wilson stays healthy and lands in a stable offensive environment, his value could jump a full tier, making this a strong long-term hold with real breakout potential.
2.03 – Dakorien Moore, WR, Oregon (2028)
Value Status: ⬆️ Rising
Dakorien Moore entered the year as one of the most expensive freshman devy bets and for most of the season, he justified it. Thrust into a major role early, Moore immediately looked like Oregon’s most reliable and explosive option, showing advanced separation ability, real vertical juice, and confidence well beyond his years. The early production mattered, especially in a program that historically doesn’t rush freshmen into featured roles.
The only pause right now is health and historical context. Oregon has been quiet about his injury, which adds short-term uncertainty, and the Ducks haven’t consistently turned elite college receivers into early NFL hits. Neither issue is disqualifying, but they’re worth noting when Moore is priced aggressively. From a market standpoint, he already sits in the same freshman tier as Malachi Toney and Dallas Wilson, with similar upside and a similarly high bar to clear.
📌 Takeaway: This is fair value. Moore is a hold, not a chase. If healthy, he’s on track to become a Round 1 devy staple next offseason, but the cost already reflects much of that upside.
2.04 – Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana (2025)
Value Status: ⬆️ Rapid Rise / Market Inefficiency
Fernando Mendoza might be the biggest value swing in this entire draft. In a format that blends rookies and devy assets, Mendoza stands out because of both timeline and ceiling. His move from Cal to Indiana under Curt Cignetti unlocked his game in a major way, accelerating his development and putting him firmly on the radar as a potential top-of-the-draft quarterback. With uncertainty around other QB declarations, Mendoza has a real path to being the first quarterback and possibly the first overall pick, taken.
What separates Mendoza is how pro-ready the profile feels. He operates comfortably within structure, processes the field at a high level, and consistently delivers accurate throws downfield without relying on manufactured production. He’s not an elite runner, but he understands pocket movement, timing, and when to extend plays versus stand tall and deliver. There are still refinement areas, particularly throwing mechanics on the move but the growth curve is undeniable, and the intangibles are exactly what NFL teams pay for.
📌 Takeaway: This is a premium QB value pick. Mendoza offers near-term payoff with legitimate franchise-quarterback upside, making him a steal in this range of a combined rookie/devy draft.
2.05 – Kevin Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M (2026)
Value Status: ⬆️ Slight Rise / Stable Asset
Kevin Concepcion has quietly become one of the safest value risers in this class. The transfer from NC State stepped into the SEC and immediately validated his game, showing that his skill set translates against stronger competition. He’s not just producing, he’s doing it efficiently, playing multiple roles, and earning trust in high-leverage situations.
What continues to separate Concepcion is versatility without gimmicks. He’s a legitimate wide receiver who can win from the slot, outside, in motion, and as a returner, giving him real Day 1 utility at the next level. NFL teams covet players like this, and his decision to declare only solidifies his standing in a 2026 class with growing uncertainty behind the top tier. He may not have elite alpha upside, but the floor is firm and the projection is clean.
📌 Takeaway: Concepcion is a hold you feel good about. He offers stability, versatility, and a realistic path to early Day 2 draft capital, exactly the kind of asset that quietly pays off in combined formats.
2.06 – LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina (2026)
LaNorris Sellers officially announcing his return to South Carolina cements him as one of the most volatile assets in this entire class. The leap many were hoping for hasn’t happened, but this also isn’t a full value collapse. The environment around him has been unstable, and his development has suffered as a result yet the raw tools remain as enticing as any quarterback on this board.
Sellers is still a traits monster: big frame, elite athleticism, and arm strength that pops from any platform. The issue is refinement. Accuracy consistency, pocket calm, and turnover management all need real work, and those flaws get magnified when an offense can’t protect or stay on schedule. That said, he’s still extremely young, and quarterbacks with this physical profile don’t fall out of favor easily. One strong developmental season whether in the same system or elsewhere, can completely reset his market.
📌 Takeaway: This is a classic high-risk, high-reward QB hold. Selling now locks in the loss. If the tools finally catch up to the play, Sellers still has a path to first-round NFL and Round 1 devy value.
2.07 – CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame (2027)
The 2027 quarterback class is absolutely loaded, and CJ Carr landing here reflects both how far he’s come and how aggressively he’s now being valued. The redshirt sophomore has taken a legitimate step forward, elevating himself from late-round stash territory into the heart of the devy QB conversation. He’s looked poised, accurate, and in control, checking many of the boxes evaluators want to see from a young quarterback in a structured offense.
Carr wins with polish and processing rather than chaos. He’s a classic pocket passer with clean mechanics, strong ball placement, and an advanced feel for timing and rhythm. He’s comfortable diagnosing coverage, getting the ball out on schedule, and keeping the offense on track. While he’s not a dynamic runner, he’s athletic enough to navigate the pocket and extend plays when needed. In a class filled with toolsy, volatile quarterbacks, Carr’s appeal is his reliability and projection as a steady long-term starter.
📌 Takeaway: Carr’s value has climbed into early-round devy territory, but this is close to his current ceiling. He’s a strong hold who belongs in the 2027 QB1 discussion, though continued growth is needed to separate fully from the pack.
2.08 – Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, QB, CAL (2028)
Value Status: ⬆️ Rising (High-Upside Developmental)
This is where I’d be willing to take my first real swing on a 2028 quarterback. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has gone from deep-round dart throw to legitimate top-five-round devy asset, and that rise has been earned. As a true freshman, he’s already shown the ability to lift an offense, deliver efficient high-volume performances, and operate without fear, exactly what you want to see early in a QB development arc.
The arm talent is very real. Sagapolutele has one of the strongest arms in the country, but what’s encouraging is the growth beyond pure velocity: improved touch, better layering of throws, and increasing comfort reading the field. He’s still learning how to manage pressure, avoid unnecessary hits, and navigate collapsing pockets, but those are normal growing pains at this stage. The foundation, tools, confidence, and willingness to attack, is firmly in place.
📌 Takeaway: This is a ceiling bet. Sagapolutele still needs refinement, and his long-term value may hinge on whether he stays at Cal or finds a better developmental environment. But as a 2028 QB swing, this is exactly the type of profile you want to invest in before the market fully catches up.
2.09 – Bryce Underwood, QB, Michigan (2028)
Value Status: ⬆️ Slight Rise / Holding Strong
Taking Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele ahead of Bryce Underwood is a choice but it doesn’t mean Underwood’s value has slipped. In fact, relative to expectations, he’s held steady and arguably improved. Being an 18-year-old starter in the Big Ten comes with volatility, and Underwood has shown exactly what you want at this stage: flashes of high-end quarterback play, resilience through struggles, and steady growth without derailing the offense.
What keeps Underwood firmly in the QB1–QB2 conversation for the 2028 class is the combination of tools and fantasy-friendly profile. He has real arm talent, touch, and pocket feel, paired with legitimate rushing upside that raises his ceiling beyond many of his peers. The inconsistency has more to do with youth, supporting cast issues, and game script than any fundamental flaw. Coaching turnover adds another variable, but if Michigan installs a staff capable of developing quarterbacks, Underwood’s trajectory remains very much intact.
📌 Takeaway: This is appropriate value. Underwood shouldn’t fall behind Sagapolutele on most boards and remains a top-two QB in the 2028 class. Hold confidently and bet on the tools, the payoff window is still wide open.
2.10 – Denzel Boston, WR, Washington (2025)
Value Status: ⬆️ Rising (Production-Driven)
This is probably a reach at this spot, but Denzel Boston has undeniably earned a major value bump from where he started. Drafted as a late-round devy flier in most formats, Boston has fought through injuries and still elevated himself firmly into the 2026 Day 2 conversation. That alone makes him a win relative to ADP.
Boston fits the boundary X archetype NFL teams still chase: big frame, strong hands, excellent body control, and comfort winning in contested situations. He’s patient, physical, and quarterback-friendly, especially in the red zone and on in-breaking routes. He also brings real utility as a blocker, which helps keep him on the field. The limitations are clear, he’s not twitchy, and separation versus press can be an issue, which is why his ceiling isn’t elite.
📌 Takeaway: Boston has outperformed expectations, but this is close to his peak value range. He’s a solid hold if you roster him, but with higher-upside talent still on the board (including incoming freshmen), this is a spot where you could justify pivoting elsewhere.
2.11 – Arch Manning, QB, Texas (2027)
Value Status: ↔️ Holding (Volatile, Insulated)
This feels about right for Arch Manning. Drafting him was always a bet on traits, pedigree, and long-term upside rather than immediate stability, and that bet has been tested. Early inconsistency cooled the market, but down the stretch he’s shown tangible growth, looking more comfortable, more decisive, and more in control of the offense.
The tools remain obvious: prototypical frame, live arm, functional mobility, and flashes of high-end quarterbacking that NFL teams still covet. The last name matters, too, not just for optics, but for how much patience the league is willing to show. Unless there’s a complete collapse, Manning is still very likely a first-round NFL pick, and that draft capital alone provides value insulation in devy formats.
📌 Takeaway: The floor hasn’t fallen out, and the ceiling is still intact. This is a hold-through-volatility profile, not a chase, not a sell. If he continues trending up, this price will look cheap in hindsight.
2.12 – Chris Henry Jr., WR, Ohio State (2029)
Value Status: ⬆️ High-Upside Entry / Long-Term Bet
This is the first member of the 2029 class off the board and an absolute swing worth taking. Chris Henry Jr. brings rare physical tools to the table: verified size north of 6’5”, long speed, and a massive catch radius that immediately separates him from most high school receivers. When healthy, he looks like a true field-flipping X who can dictate coverage and win in ways defenses can’t easily scheme against.
The profile isn’t finished yet. Henry Jr. still needs refinement as a route runner and must prove he can stay healthy, but the flashes are undeniable. He wins above the rim, adjusts effortlessly to off-target throws, and has shown more catch-and-run ability than he’s often credited for. Landing in the Ohio State wide receiver pipeline only amplifies the upside, that developmental track record matters when you’re betting this early.
📌 Takeaway: This is a ceiling play, but a smart one. Henry Jr. has rare traits, a premium landing spot, and game-breaking potential. If it clicks, he won’t stay in this range for long and he could be the type of 2029 asset managers wish they bought earlier.
Round 3
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