The Dynasty Investor: October Update

Jay Stein applies investment and valuation concepts to Fantasy Football.

Methodology: The way we measure value in the Dynasty Investor is by looking at a player's KeepTradeCut (KTC) vs. his fantasy point per game (PPG) in a ratio called the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. P/E = KTC / PPG / 10. Then, you compare that player's P/E ratio to a like-for-like cluster of players from an age, production, and potential perspective. Players in the same cluster should be valued similarly in the market on a P/E basis. If they aren't, then an arbitrage opportunity exists to create value.

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X Upgrades/Downgrades since the September update

Upgrades from Sell to Hold

• Jared Goff (favorable 13% or 679 KTC added)

• Sam Laporta (favorable 10% or 711 KTC added)

• Tyreek Hill (favorable 14% or 968 KTC added)

• CJ Stroud (favorable 10% or 923 KTC added)

Downgrades from Buy to Hold

• Tank Bigsby (favorable 40% or 784 KTC added)

• Alvin Kamara (favorable 21% or 696 KTC added)

• Brock Bowers (favorable 20% or 1004 KTC added)

• Drake London (favorable 13% or 766 KTC added)

• Drake Maye (favorable 13% or 699 KTC added)

• Cade Otton (favorable 33% or 692 KTC added)

Adding all these closed trades up is ~8,000 KTC added since the September update. Of course, this doesn't include the still-open trades that definitely include some misses (more on that below), but hopefully, you are seeing some value added here. 

Some of the more favorable trades from the September report

• Buy Drake London + 2025 2nd = Sell Tyreek Hill

• Buy Brock Bowers + 2025 1st = Sell Sam LaPorta 

• Buy Brock Bowers = Sell Isiah Pacheco

• Buy Tank Bigsby = Sell 2025 mid 3rd

• Buy Cade Otton = Sell 2025 mid 3rd

• Sell Sam LaPorta = Buy Kyle Pitts + 2025 1st

• Sell Sam LaPorta = Buy Justin Herbert

Positional Charting

Now, we are going to dissect the position groups based on KTC. Usually, we look at KTC, PPG, & age all at once, but I thought it might be interesting to just take a look at where players were relative to each other just on price (KTC). Below, we will go through the top page of KTC players, which is essentially the top 50 KTC players right now. 

QB