The Dynasty Investor: Technical Analysis – Running Back Chartbook

Jay Stein applies investment and valuation concepts to Fantasy Football.

In the last issue of The Dynasty Investor, we introduced technical analysis, charting player prices over time to understand momentum, reversals, and volatility. That piece focused on quarterbacks, but now we're turning our attention to running backs. Using the same tools, moving averages, standard deviations, support and resistance zones, and trend reversals, we're trying to answer not just who to buy, but when to act.

Timing matters. Especially at running back, where the position ages quickly, values swing wildly, and league-winning runs often emerge from players who weren't consensus top-5 options. So, how can technical analysis help? By following a few foundational beliefs, borrowed from financial markets and applied to fantasy:

• Price Discounts Everything: KTC already reflects consensus sentiment, factoring in usage, depth chart shifts, injuries, and hype. We don't need to speculate, we can observe.

• History Rhymes: While not identical, player price action often follows familiar cycles: offseason dips, camp hype spikes, in-season surges, or injury-induced collapses.

• Trends Persist Until They Don't: A strong uptrend tends to keep going until a visible breakdown occurs. Likewise, players falling in value tend to keep falling until something shifts sentiment.

Technical analysis provides us with tools to interpret these cycles in real-time. It's not about predicting the future, it's about reacting more rationally to the patterns already unfolding. For running backs, that's especially powerful.

RB Chartbook

We'll now turn our attention to the running back position, examining the technical charts of every player currently valued above 3000 KeepTradeCut (KTC). Each chart reveals unique patterns of market sentiment and momentum, from established veterans navigating age-related decline to emerging talent establishing their dynasty credentials. After analyzing individual player technicals, we'll conclude with a collective look at the 2025 rookie running back class to see how their relative prices have evolved since draft day and which prospects have captured the most dynasty manager attention.

Chart Analysis: Bijan Robinson's chart displays a bullish setup, supported by strong technical indicators. His KTC price recently crossed above the 150-day moving average, a classic signal of a potential trend reversal, and it's now pushing toward the +1σ line (~8341), where previous rallies have faced resistance. After two sharp corrections in late 2023 and mid 2024, Bijan's price stabilized near the long-term average (~7900), forming a solid base. With the moving average now sloping upward and price holding above both the mean and prior support, momentum is clearly on his side. The current chart suggests Bijan is in the early stages of another upward run, keep an eye on how he handles resistance at the upper bound.

Near-term trend: Up

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