The Hidden Cost of Drafting Devy QBs
Kevin Coleman writes about Devy quarterback strategy with an emphasis on timing, liquidity, and understanding when patience actually costs value.
Quarterbacks feel like the safest bet in football. They touch the ball every play. They drive scoring. They dominate Superflex dynasty leagues. So naturally, Devy managers convince themselves that drafting QBs early is the responsible, long-term play.
Most of the time, it isn’t.
In Devy formats, quarterbacks are slow-moving, capital-intensive, and often illiquid assets. They don’t lose value quickly the way Running Backs do, but that’s part of the problem. They sit on your roster for years without meaningfully increasing in value, quietly blocking flexibility while other positions cycle value faster.
This isn’t an anti-QB argument. Elite quarterbacks absolutely matter. This is an argument against paying early Devy prices for assets that don’t reward waiting. The edge in Devy isn’t safety. It’s velocity. And most Devy QBs don’t move fast enough to justify the cost.
To understand why early Devy QB exposure so often disappoints, you have to look at the position through an asset lens instead of a football lens. Quarterbacks feel safe, but safety in Devy is often just another word for stagnation. The first problem to unpack is how holding QBs quietly erodes flexibility over time.
So before getting into when Devy QBs do make sense, it’s important to understand the core problem. The issue isn’t quarterback talent — it’s how QB value actually behaves in Devy formats. Once you see how slow-moving and illiquid most QB assets really are, the strategy becomes obvious.
That starts with the holding problem.
1. The Devy QB Holding Problem
Quarterback value in Devy feels safe. That’s the illusion.
Quarterbacks touch the ball every play, have long careers, and dominate Superflex dynasty leagues; so Devy managers treat them like foundational assets. But in practice, that perceived safety often translates to dead capital: assets that sit on your roster for years without meaningfully increasing in value. The problem isn’t that Devy quarterbacks lose value quickly. It’s that most of them don’t gain it at all.
Long Development Timelines
Quarterbacks take time, and in Devy, time is expensive. Most Devy quarterbacks require multiple seasons before NFL clarity even becomes possible. Unlike running backs and Wide Receivers, there are very few inflection points that materially change a quarterback’s value year over year. One solid season doesn’t move the market. Two good seasons don’t either. Until draft capital enters the picture, value remains largely theoretical. That means you’re often holding a quarterback for two or three years just to reach the point where the market starts paying attention. During that time, nothing about the asset is working in your favor; it’s simply waiting.
Minimal Year-to-Year Value Movement
This is where Devy quarterbacks quietly hurt rosters. Most quarterbacks enter Devy drafts priced fairly. Then they stay priced fairly. They don’t crater, but they don’t climb either. Year after year, their market value remains flat while other positions cycle through meaningful appreciation and liquidity windows.
The irony is that the quarterbacks who actually gain value are often the ones no one planned for; late-round Devy quarterbacks drafted in rounds four or five who suddenly spike due to unexpected production, traits, or draft buzz. Those are velocity plays, not long-term holds. Early-round Devy quarterbacks rarely offer that kind of return. Their upside is already priced in, leaving very little room for value growth before the NFL Draft cycle compresses the position again.
Difficult Trade Liquidity Unless Elite
Another hidden cost of Devy QB exposure is trade liquidity.
Unless a quarterback is clearly trending toward first-round NFL draft capital or viewed as a future fantasy difference-maker, it’s surprisingly hard to move him. Managers may say they value the quarterback, but few are willing to tie up assets waiting on a long timeline. The result is an asset that feels valuable but has no real buyers. If you can’t move a Devy QB without discounting him, even when he hasn’t lost value, the value isn’t functional. In Devy, liquidity matters as much as evaluation.
The Framing Problem
This is the core misunderstanding:
Devy QBs don’t lose value fast; they just don’t gain it.
That stagnation is far more damaging than volatility. Every season you hold a quarterback waiting for clarity is a season you aren’t cycling running back value, capturing wide receiver appreciation, or preserving flexibility through picks. By the time certainty arrives, you’ve often paid multiple opportunity costs just to be proven right. This isn’t accidental. Quarterback stagnation isn’t a market inefficiency; it’s structural.
Quarterback value moves slowly in Devy because the position is evaluated differently, rewarded later, and insulated from short-term production swings. To understand why early Devy quarterback exposure so often underperforms, you have to understand why QB value moves at a different speed than every other position.
That’s where we’re headed next.
2. Why QB Value Moves Slowly in Devy
Quarterback stagnation in Devy isn’t a market flaw; it’s a structural reality. The position is evaluated differently, rewarded later, and insulated from short-term production in ways no other Devy asset is. That combination creates a value curve that moves slowly by design, regardless of talent.
Draft Capital Lag
Quarterback value doesn’t truly matter in Devy until very late in the cycle. Unlike running backs and wide receivers, where production and role clarity can meaningfully move value early, quarterback evaluation is overwhelmingly tied to NFL draft capital. Until that signal becomes visible, most Devy quarterbacks exist in a holding pattern. They aren’t being rewarded for incremental progress; they’re waiting for permission from the NFL.
That creates a brutal trade-off: You often spend three years of roster space just to reach one decision point. If the draft capital hits, the value finally unlocks. If it doesn’t, you’ve waited years to find out you were wrong. That risk-reward profile simply doesn’t favor early Devy investment.
Performance ≠ Translation
Quarterback is the position where college production lies the most. High passing totals, inflated efficiency, and monster box scores regularly come from systems that don’t translate cleanly to the NFL. Spread concepts, one-read offenses, and scheme-driven production can make quarterbacks look dominant on Saturdays without moving the needle on Sundays.
The Devy market understands this, which is why even massive statistical jumps often result in minimal value movement. Managers have learned that college performance alone is not a reliable signal for NFL success at quarterback. Production doesn’t unlock QB value. Projection plus draft capital does.
System Quarterbacks Create False Hope
Certain offensive environments inflate quarterback output consistently. High-tempo systems, elite supporting casts, and simplified reads can prop up multiple quarterbacks without creating real Devy value. These quarterbacks are productive, but replaceable, and the market treats them accordingly.
That’s why Devy managers often find themselves holding quarterbacks who look great on paper but generate no trade interest. The numbers exist. The payoff doesn’t. This disconnect reinforces why QB value moves slowly: the market refuses to reward output without confirmation that it will translate.
Replacement Cost Is Higher Than Managers Admit
Another reason QB value stagnates is simple supply. At the dynasty level, startable quarterbacks are easier to find than elite RBs or WRs. Late rookie picks, depth-chart movement, and short-term starters routinely provide usable fantasy production. That availability caps the urgency to invest heavily in Devy quarterbacks years in advance. Even when a Devy QB looks promising, dynasty managers know alternatives will exist. That suppresses demand and keeps Devy QB prices in check. Scarcity drives value. Quarterbacks aren’t as scarce as they feel. This has been a new phenomenon in the format in recent years, but one that matters. Quarterbacks are simply not valued the same, even across dynasty.
Late Picks Create Usable Outcomes
This feeds directly into the replacement cost issue. Every year, late-round rookie QBs and cheap veterans become functional starters in dynasty. They may not be long-term answers, but they’re usable, and that usability reduces the premium managers are willing to pay for Devy quarterback bets. When serviceable outcomes are readily available, long-term speculation loses its appeal.
The Transfer Portal Changed Everything
No factor has slowed Devy quarterback value more than the transfer portal. The portal has fundamentally altered quarterback development timelines. Five-star freshmen now routinely sit behind transfers or older incumbents. Development is delayed. Breakout windows are pushed back. And in many cases, early Devy hype simply evaporates before the QB ever sees the field.
Instead of climbing depth charts naturally, quarterbacks are now competing in constant reset environments:
Veteran transfers arrive immediately
Coaching staffs prioritize experience
Younger quarterbacks are asked to wait or leave
For Devy managers, this introduces a new layer of uncertainty. Not only does production matter less, but opportunity itself is no longer guaranteed. A highly touted recruit can lose two full seasons without meaningful snaps, destroying any chance of value growth during the most important early years. The transfer portal didn’t just increase player movement. It compressed QB development windows and made patience far more expensive.
The Structural Conclusion
Put it all together, and the picture is clear.
Quarterback value moves slowly in Devy because:
Draft capital arrives late
Production is unreliable as a signal
Systems inflate output without a payoff
Replacement options are plentiful
The transfer portal delays or derails development
This isn’t about being bad at identifying quarterbacks. It’s about understanding that the position itself resists early Devy investment. And once you accept that, the strategy becomes much easier to apply.
All of this explains why quarterback value moves slowly in Devy, but it also reveals the real problem. Not losing value often gets mistaken for success. In reality, flat value over multiple seasons quietly costs you far more than a miss ever would.
