Welcome to The TDR Market Report, our weekly look at the biggest value shifts across dynasty and devy. Every week, we’ll cut through the noise and focus on the players whose stock is actually moving, whether that means a breakout pushing someone up the board, a disappointing performance creating a buying window, or a market reaction that has gone too far.
The goal here is simple: identify what changed, decide whether it matters, and figure out how we should react before the rest of the market catches up.
Dynasty Market
We are getting deep enough into the season now that these dynasty shifts are becoming harder to ignore. Roles are established, production is starting to stabilize, and the market is finally reacting to what players are actually doing instead of what we expected them to do in August.
There is still plenty of season left, but this is the point where real risers and fallers start separating themselves. The goal now is figuring out which moves are sustainable and which ones are still worth fading.
Atlanta Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr.
Kevin: Health is always going to be the first thing we talk about with Penix Jr., and unfortunately we are right back there again with the rib injury. But when he has been on the field, I think he has shown enough to keep me interested from a dynasty perspective.
Over his three starts, Penix has completed 52 of 77 passes for 719 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, and Atlanta has averaged 34.3 points per game with him under center. The fantasy production has not always matched the real-life performance because the Falcons have leaned so heavily on the running game near the goal line, but I think Penix has shown some real moxie in these starts.
He has been willing to stand in, make throws under pressure, and keep the offense moving even when the matchup has been tough. The touchdown numbers have been a little disappointing, but I do think there is some positive regression coming if he stays healthy. Drake London has clearly benefited from playing with Penix, and there are enough weapons here for this passing game to keep growing.
The rib injury is obviously something we need to monitor, especially given his history, but the early optimism around it is encouraging. If he is back quickly, I still think Penix is a useful QB2 in Superflex formats with room to climb if the passing touchdowns start catching up to the yardage.
He is not a player I am aggressively buying right now, but I do think the market may still be underrating how solid he has looked when healthy.
Christian: Kevin’s right that we’re underrating Penix. I’m not innocent in that, either. I was excited about him as a prospect, but his lack of production early in his career and the poor fit with Kevin Stefanski’s Browns offenses pushed him down my rankings this offseason. Still, through three weeks, it’s easy to get excited about him. Sure, he’s borderline the worst quarterback in the league when facing pressure. But when he’s unpressured, my hot take is he’s looked like one of the ten best quarterbacks. His precision, arm talent to unlock all three levels, and willingness to push the ball into windows have been incredibly impressive. A lot of folks thought the Falcons’ addition of Tua Tagovailoa indicated a lack of belief in Penix — and it very well could have at the time — but it seems like the Falcons have their long-term quarterback, and that makes him a more stable, sturdy dynasty asset. I wouldn’t describe my desire to add him as “aggressive,” but I’m also quite interested in adding him as somewhat of a buy-low before he gets back on the field.
Dear Readers,
You’re currently reading the free preview of this article. To unlock the full piece and get all of our dynasty, devy, C2C, and fantasy content, consider joining The Devy Royale. Substack is our most affordable option at $7/month and gives you access to all of our written content.
For the full TDR experience, our website offers memberships at $8, $12, and $16 per month, including written content, rankings, exclusive tools, features, and community access. Whichever way you choose to support us, we appreciate you being part of TDR and trusting us to help you stay ahead of your leagues.
