Welcome to The TDR Market Report, our weekly look at the biggest value shifts across dynasty and devy. Every week, we’ll cut through the noise and focus on the players whose stock is actually moving, whether that means a breakout pushing someone up the board, a disappointing performance creating a buying window, or a market reaction that has gone too far.
The goal here is simple: identify what changed, decide whether it matters, and figure out how we should react before the rest of the market catches up.
Dynasty Market
We are far enough into the NFL season now that some of these early reactions are starting to turn into real trends. Roles are settling in, usage is becoming more consistent, and we are finally getting a better sense of which breakouts are legitimate and which slow starts might actually matter.
I still do not want to overreact to every big week, but this is the point in the season where dynasty values can start moving quickly. Some players are earning real bumps, others are starting to lose ground, and the market is beginning to adjust.
Cleveland Browns RB Quinshon Judkins
Kevin: We are in a weird spot with Quinshon Judkins right now.
I saw the recent NFL Stock Exchange mock where they explored Cleveland potentially taking another running back in Round 1, and I just do not really see that happening. But I do understand why the conversation is even there. Judkins has not exactly been dominant to start the season, and the efficiency has been pretty underwhelming.
That said, I thought this past week was a step in the right direction. Judkins handled 17 carries for 53 yards and a touchdown, then added six catches for 43 yards on seven targets. That gave him 96 total yards on 23 touches, which was easily his most encouraging all-around performance of the season.
The rushing efficiency still was not great, but the receiving work matters. Judkins has now seen 14 targets over the last three weeks, and if that becomes a real part of his role, it raises his dynasty floor quite a bit. He is still dominating the backfield touches, handling roughly 72% of Cleveland’s rush attempts, and he has also seen 100% of the team’s carries inside the five-yard line.
That is why I am not ready to panic on him. The Browns offense has actually looked more functional than it did a year ago, and Judkins still clearly has the lead role. He needs to be better, but the opportunity is there.
Maybe this week gets him back on track. If the receiving usage sticks and the rushing efficiency starts to come around, I think the dynasty conversation around him will look a lot better in a few weeks.
Christian: Any discussion about the Browns using a first-round pick on a running back is silly, but I won’t lie and say I’m feeling comfortable with what we’ve seen from Judkins thus far. Sure, the Browns’ offensive line ranks 27th in run-block win rate, but Judkins has largely failed to take advantage of opportunities through most of this season. He’s not seeing the defense well, but the team is adamant he’s their workhorse and can afford to be patient, since their early success is most likely to level off (even though they have a favorable schedule). Judkins is struggling to break tackles, and he’s very clearly thinking when he’s on the field, which is never a good sign. While the Browns don’t really have a decent option to eat up more carries right now, Dylan Sampson will eventually return from injury, and his running style fits this offense a little better. Judkins is meant for an under-center, downhill rushing attack. He’s currently being asked to take inside zone handoffs from shotgun formations, something he was never particularly good at. I’m willing to be patient with Judkins, because there’s a world where this offense evolves and incorporates more under-center stuff as they move on from Deshaun Watson in 2027, but it could be a long year for Judkins managers.
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