Total QBR: A Quarterback Report
Total QBR: A Quarterback Report
Christian Williams analyzes quarterback play across college football and the NFL, and this week he releases an updated 2025 NFL Draft QB rankings.
The 2025 quarterback class is taking shape, though there’s still much uncertainty about how the NFL will view the top candidates. I update my grades weekly (this is a little inside baseball), and it’s time to bring those to this column. As we creep closer to the midpoint of the 2024 college football season, here are my views on the 2025 quarterback class.
1. Drew Allar, Penn State
Previous Rank: QB3.
When most people flip the Penn State film back on - a task that felt more like a chore in the 2023 iteration of the offense - Allar should be a massive riser. Whether it’s Andy Kotelnicki’s simplified scheme or Allar’s growth as a processor, the results finally match the immense talent. Allar is accurately driving the football into tight windows in the middle of the field, to the boundaries, with velocity and confidence. Mechanically, he’s incredibly sound. His footwork is among the best in the class (I’d argue it is the best, actually), and he has shortened his release. Allar is utilizing his eyes and feet to open windows and get to backside reads, too.
This has led to a fairly efficient stat line. Among Power 4 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks, Allar ranks 21st in PFF passing grade, 6th in yards per attempt, 26th in turnover-worthy-play percentage, 11th in touchdown percentage, and 6th in QBR. The Penn State offense still operates through the run game, so Allar’s counting stats likely won’t pop. Has it been perfect? Absolutely not. Allar is still developing, and boneheaded moments still pop up. Still, the growth is apparent, and the translatable throws are there every week. It’s hard to imagine the NFL overlooking his development when you combine that with his top-of-class tools, and I expect Allar will begin to rise among Big Draft analysis.
2. Quinn Ewers, Texas
Previous Rank: QB1.
Candidly, Ewers’ grade is unchanged, but his lack of playing time due to his injury has dropped him a spot in the rankings. When he’s on the field, he’s still one of the best quarterbacks in the nation, and his mastery of Steve Sarkisian’s creative offense is apparent. During the Michigan game, it was evident that the game had slowed down, allowing him to utilize his elite tools to create easier throwing windows. Ewers is manipulating defenders, accurately throwing to all three field levels, and mitigating turnover-worthy decisions. As expected, the deep ball accuracy issues from 2022 and 2023 have lessened, as the timing and loft seem to be ironed out with this new group of wideouts. Ewers is completing 42.9% of his deep attempts and holds a 93.4 PFF Passing Grade on such throws. Continued consistency here is critical, especially following the injury he sustained a couple of weeks ago. Durability concerns remain, as Ewers hasn’t finished a season in his three years of starting, but the oblique/hip issue he’s dealt with over the last month is less concerning than the collarbone and shoulder issues of the past. When Ewers returns, I anticipate he’ll cement himself among the best of the class, as Texas should remain a legitimate national title contender.
3. Jalen Milroe, Alabama
Previous Rank: QB4.
My notes for Milroe during summer scouting:
Milroe’s mechanics are a mess, he sprays the football, and the decision-making and processing are questionable at best. He’ll need to rework his release and footwork, continue getting comfortable in pocket-passing situations, and show massive development to be in contention for a first-round selection. Still, his elite athleticism gives him a solid baseline to work with.
Well, he accomplished a lot of those requirements, and the entire country was put on notice with Milroe’s elite performance against the Georgia Bulldogs last Saturday. Milroe is still a see-it-and-throw-it quarterback, but that’s a massive step up from last year. Anticipatory throws are few and far between, and he still makes questionable reads; a throw on a mesh concept in the Georgia game stood out, as the coverage told him to throw to the sit route in the middle of the field as he took the shallow drag route for minimal gain. He’s growing, though, and the ball placement has drastically improved. Plus, he can do this.
His extraordinary, elite athleticism raises the floor of an offense, and Milroe will have plenty of opportunities to show continued growth as a passer.
4. Cam Ward, Miami (FL)
Previous Rank: QB6.
Ward has been one of the most pleasant surprises of this season, as he’s taken massive steps forward in his first season in Miami. He’s always had the arm talent and aggressiveness that indicated a high upside, but recklessness and inconsistency plagued his first year in the Power 5. Some of the turnover issues appeared in Ward’s Week 4 game, giving me enough pause to keep him lower than the top three guys, but the accuracy, translatable NFL throws, and creativity within and out of structure give me hope that we could have a dude in Ward. Ward consistently attacks vertically into the middle of the field with anticipation and zip. He’s identifying coverages better, though defenses can still fool him a few times per game. He’s making decisions within the pocket that will lose Will Levis his starting job in Tennessee, but he’s doing it effectively against tough competition. Ward is a volatile quarterback who could nosedive down the stretch, but he has as good a shot as any to become the first quarterback off the board after a month of play, and I would call that his best-case scenario after watching his 2023 film.
5. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
Previous Rank: QB5.
No one has been more in on Nussmeier than our own Andy Pham, but I’m glad he put me on to the film. Even in limited snaps last year, the anticipatory throws, command of the offense, and accuracy were on display. It was enough to wedge him into my top five over the summer, and frankly, I’m probably still too low on him.
Nussmeier is doing what Allar and Ewers are displaying: throwing the ball into windows in the middle of the field with anticipation and elite processing. He’s doing it more effectively, even. He trusts his eyes, and he gets the ball out quickly. He doesn’t have the most elite physical traits. His arm is adequate; he has enough zip to fit the ball into tight windows, but his velocity won’t blow anyone away. He is an excellent sack avoider (his 2.8% pressure-to-sack ratio ranks 2nd among Power 4 QBs), but his play extension would be considered average or below average at the NFL level. He still has moments of rawness that should cease with more playing time. Still, Nussmeier’s processing skills should earn him a long look from NFL scouts, and it may even be enough to get him into the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. A return to school would assuredly put him in contention for the first overall selection in 2026.
6. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
Previous Rank: QB8.
Before you start yelling, I believe Sanders has improved this year! His playmaking has improved drastically, and he’s seeing the field better than in 2023. Still, he’s leaving a ton of yards on the field with poor reads or panicky feet in the pocket, and his arm is just a tick more adequate than Nussmeier’s. Sanders is one of the most accurate players in the class, and deep balls to the boundaries look more like handoffs. He’s a good athlete, and his escapability has helped an atrocious offensive line. Even setting the leadership questions aside, Sanders looks more like a day-two pick than a first-rounder to me, but I think he can have a long, illustrious career if he goes to the right situation.
If you’re interested in what I’m seeing on film, I broke down his Week 5 performance against UCF earlier this week.
7. Miller Moss, USC
Previous Rank: Unranked.
While Ward’s rise has been a pleasant surprise, there isn’t anyone who has been more impressive relative to expectations than Moss. Moss has been accurate and displays a mastery of the offense that first-year starters usually don’t. His timing and anticipation have elevated the offense, though Lincoln Riley is implementing an impressive offensive scheme for the first time since his Oklahoma days. Moss definitely doesn’t have the strongest arm, but there’s some Brock Purdy to his play style that makes me think that the mental tools will ensure his success at the NFL level. I think he will return to school in 2025, for what it’s worth, but he’s definitely an arrow-up guy in this class, considering he was barely on my radar after last year.
8. Carson Beck, Georgia
Previous Rank: QB2.
Beck has been the most disappointing quarterback in the nation through a month of play, in my estimate. The confidence he played with in 2023 appeared just once (the second half of last week’s Alabama matchup), and he isn’t trusting his eyes or arm to deliver the football accurately to all three levels. He’s struggled with accuracy to all three levels this year, and his footwork and unwillingness to let the football go have suffered, too. The second half of last week offered a glimmer of hope that the confident quarterback we saw in 2023 is still alive somewhere, but Beck looks more like day-three quarterback than a round-one quarterback.
9. Will Howard, Ohio State
Previous Rank: QB12.
Howard is doing enough to keep me intrigued, though the Buckeyes probably could’ve saved some money and gotten this level of play from their previous starter.
Still, Howard is delivering accurate footballs, doing what’s asked of him, and making some plays with his legs outside of structure. He’s more a high-level backup with spot-starter capabilities than an NFL starter, but that’s a valuable add for an NFL team (see: Miami Dolphins). A day-three selection is probably in Howard’s future, and that’s good enough.
10. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss
Previous Rank: QB7.
Dart received a lot of buzz this summer and into the early weeks of the 2024 college football season, but operating a mostly fake offense won’t do him favors when the 2025 NFL Draft rolls around. Dart’s processing speed has increased, and statistically, he’s dominant. Still, his arm has disappointed me this season, and processing an offense that schemes up wide-open wideouts against inferior competition is something most experienced quarterbacks can do. He loses a ton of velocity on his football when forced out of the pocket. He has tightened up his mechanics, and maybe he’ll go on a Linsanity run, but I’d bet he’s a day-three selection at this moment.