Week 5 College Football Bets

Kevin goes through his favorite bets of the Week 5 college football season.

Last week was another strong showing, finishing 4-2 and continuing to build momentum as the season progresses. As nonconference play winds down and the intensity of conference games heats up, we’re starting to dial in with a solid understanding of these teams. Sitting at 16-9 overall, we've hit a good rhythm, and Week 5 brings more opportunities to keep the hot streak going. Let’s dive into the picks as we gear up for another exciting weekend of college football.

Illinois +18 Versus Penn State

I'm taking Illinois +18 versus Penn State, and here’s why. Luke Altmyer has taken his game to the next level in his second season at Illinois, drastically improving his play. His 84.7% adjusted completion rate ranks 3rd in the nation, and he’s the only QB with 10+ touchdowns and no interceptions. Illinois, under Bielema, has played clean football, ranking 2nd in turnover margin and 9th in 3-and-out rate. Their defense has been tough against the pass, allowing just 4.4 net yards per attempt. While their run defense shows some cracks, Illinois has shown they can hang tough with solid performances against Nebraska and Kansas. With Penn State coming off a closer-than-expected win over Bowling Green, I see Illinois keeping it within the 18-point spread. Especially considering they are a veteran-laden team, and experience will matter on the road.

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Alabama WR Ryan Williams Over 46.5 Receiving Yards

I'm taking the over on Alabama WR Ryan Williams' receiving yards prop of 46.5 this week because the 17-year-old freshman has hit this mark in each of his first three games. He’s accounted for ten targets over the last two weeks and is averaging 16.0 yards per catch. With 285 yards and four touchdowns so far, Williams leads the FBS with 28.5 yards per catch. Alabama will rely on his explosive playmaking ability in a massive national stage game against top-ranked Georgia. Great players step up in big moments, and with the Tide scheming to get him touches, Williams should easily hit the over.

USC WR Zachariah Branch Over 53.5 Receiving Yards

I'm taking the over on USC WR Zachariah Branch's 53.5 receiving yards this week because the electric playmaker is primed for another big performance. Against Michigan, Branch had a career-high 6 receptions for 98 yards, showing his ability to thrive when given the ball. While he’s still refining his skills as a receiver, he’s totaled 14 catches for 173 yards through three weeks and is dangerous with the ball in his hands. USC will bubble-screen this defense to death, with Branch being the prime benefactor. Wisconsin’s defense has struggled to contain explosive players like Branch, and I expect USC to scheme up plenty of touches for him. Branch should easily hit the over in this matchup with his game-breaking speed.

Ole Miss WR Tre Harris Over 94.5 Receiving Yards

I'm taking the over on Ole Miss WR Tre Harris' 94.5 receiving yards this week, and for good reason. Harris is currently ranked No. 2 in FBS with 628 receiving yards, averaging an impressive 157 yards per game. He’s outpacing the next-closest SEC receiver by a huge margin—280 yards more than Andrew Armstrong, who's in second place. If Harris can put up just 79 yards against Kentucky's secondary, led by corner Maxwell Hairston, he’ll have the most pre-October receiving yards of any Power 5 receiver in the Playoff era. With 45 targets so far, the volume is there, and with Ole Miss’ offense firing on all cylinders, Harris is primed to crush the over once again. Jaxson Dart and Tre Harris are the best QB-WR combo in college football.

Fresno State Over 23.5 Team Total

I'm taking the over on Fresno State's team total of 23.5 this week, and here’s why. After a tough opener at Michigan, where they only managed 10 points, the Bulldogs have been on fire, averaging 44 points per game since then. Mikey Keene has been slinging the ball and putting up points, while Malik Sherrod is proving himself as one of the top running backs in the Mountain West. Fresno State’s offense is underrated, and with Tim Skipper’s defense creating nine takeaways over the last three games, they’ll have plenty of opportunities to score. This offense should hit the over against a UNLV team that has had a rough week and a quarterback change.

Kevin Coleman’s Season Record: 16-9