Why Devy RBs Should Be Treated Like 12-Month Assets
Kevin continues his devy strategy series!
One of the biggest mistakes Devy managers make is treating running backs like long-term holds.
They aren’t.
In Devy formats, RB value is short-cycle, fragile, and extremely time-sensitive. The mistake isn’t missing on talent; it’s assuming that value compounds the same way it does at other positions. It doesn’t. Running back value spikes quickly, stabilizes briefly, and then begins eroding almost the moment certainty arrives.
The managers who consistently win in Devy aren’t the ones who wait around to be proven right. They’re the ones who understand that the exit matters just as much as the evaluation. Identifying the “right” running back is only half the equation. Knowing when the market has already priced in the outcome is where the edge actually lives.
If you’re holding Devy RBs for multiple seasons waiting for confirmation, you’re not being patient. You’re paying opportunity cost while absorbing the most fragile asset class in the format.
That’s not long-term thinking. That’s bleeding ROI.
1. The Devy RB Lifecycle
Running back value in Devy doesn’t move in a straight line. It doesn’t steadily build year over year, and it doesn’t reward patience the way other positions do. Instead, RB value follows a compressed lifecycle: one defined by early optimism, a brief clarity window, and a fast-moving decline once certainty arrives.
Understanding this lifecycle is the difference between extracting value and getting stuck holding it.
Freshman Hype Spike
For running backs, value often spikes before production ever stabilizes.
A strong recruiting profile, early flashes, or even positive camp buzz can push a freshman RB into the Devy conversation almost immediately. At this stage, the market isn’t paying for what the player is, it’s paying for what the player might become. Ceiling gets priced aggressively, and risk gets ignored.
This is pure projection-based value. Optimism is high, timelines feel long, and managers assume development will be linear.
It rarely is.
For many RBs, this phase represents the largest value-to-information gap they will ever have. That doesn’t mean you must sell every freshman RB, but it does mean this is often the first point where liquidity quietly exceeds safety.
Sophomore Clarity Window
This is the most important stage in the Devy RB lifecycle.
By year two, roles begin to solidify. Usage becomes more predictable. Efficiency stabilizes. We start to see whether a back can handle volume, contribute in the passing game, or separate from a committee. Importantly, the market now feels more comfortable assigning an NFL trajectory, even though draft capital is still far from guaranteed.
This is the sweet spot.
Certainty has increased, but the market is still willing to pay future premiums. The profile looks cleaner. The risk feels manageable. This is often when RBs reach their most tradable form, valuable enough to excite buyers, but not yet exposed to the full weight of draft capital scrutiny and wear-and-tear.
If there is an optimal window to move a Devy RB, this is usually it.
Junior Year = Decision Point
Once an RB reaches his junior season, the equation shifts.
At this stage, questions about draft capital are no longer abstract. NFL evaluators care about mileage. Efficiency dips matter more. Injuries become harder to explain away. Another season of usage doesn’t meaningfully increase upside; it mostly introduces downside.
Holding an RB through his junior year isn’t long-term investing anymore. It’s speculating on perfection: clean health, sustained efficiency, and draft capital landing at the top of the range. That can happen, but the margin for error is razor-thin.
This is where many Devy managers get trapped. They’re close enough to the finish line that selling feels uncomfortable, but far enough away that value erosion can still happen quickly.
